Quote from: Poker Player on Today at 03:54:18 PM

If anyone was not very clear on a strategy to accumulate bitcoin, in these recent posts is a summary of JJG's strategy that he has been explaining in other threads as well.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 14, 2024, 07:03:17 PM

I think that you are saying the same thing as me, Poker Player (or at least something very similar), but you are saying it differently.

I would say, that you should not be authorizing yourself to be selling any of your bitcoin until you have clearly reached a state of overaccumulation, and since there are so many ways to measure overaccumulation, guys seem like they wrongly assess that they have reached such status of overaccumulation before they have, since they are tied to some of the traditional ideas of reallocating their bitcoin, which seems to be somewhat how bitmover is thinking about his BTC stash. Sure, in the end, bitmover, and any other forum member can do whatever they like, yet to me it seems quite short sighted to be reallocating out of BTC based on BTC price appreciation rather than ongoingly, persistently and consistently buying BTC until they are really sure that they have more than enough.

On this point you are right but I have not advocated exactly the same thing and I will explain why.

For sure it is fair to have different interpretations of how to play out strategies and generally applicable principles in light of your own circumstances.

So I think that I am attempting to set forth generally applicable principles that would be the presumption regarding what to do, so any guy might choose to follow such practices based on the general presumptions, so then if he finds some of his own particular circumstances that justify overriding the general principles, then he may need to make sure that his case for overriding the presumptions are strong enough to actual make the move of overriding the general principles.

It is like saying that these are the best practices, yet of course, I have authority to override what generally would be best practices because I see for me, this would be a better practice based on my own particular circumstances, especially since I accounted for my 9 individual factors.

Quote from: Poker Player on Today at 03:54:18 PM

If a guy starts accumulating bitcoin and has a modest salary, of which he can save let's say 10%, to buy bitcoin it's going to be many years before he can accumulate enough for a fuck-you status.

There are so many people who fail/refuse to sufficiently save and/or invest any kind of meaningful amount, so both shooting for 10% investment/savings and not tapping into their long term savings/investment tends to be very powerful, yet like you mentioned it still will take a long ass time to really build wealth with those levels of 10% (even though those levels are quite practical and probably even a BIG improvement for a lot of folks).

So, yeah, 10% per year is ONLY get you to a status of having had invested a whole year's income after 10 years, and if at minimum we need around 10 years of bitcoin to be able to be at fuck you status, then we are somewhat reliant for either growth of our value or putting in at larger rates. We can ONLY do as much as we can do as far as putting in, and for sure, whatever we choose to invest into is not guaranteed, so we have to do our best to make sure that we invest in the best kind of thing(s) that we know to be available, which surely many of us consider to be bitcoin, yet even with bitcoin it is not guaranteed to appreciate and/or to compound our value, even though historically it has done quite well in regards to appreciating and compounding value.

Quote from: Poker Player on Today at 03:54:18 PM

Then let's say that, being generous, that person reaches more than enough bitcoin in three cycles (we can assume that during that time he receives raises at his job and extra money in bonuses or other forms).

Ok.. sure in order to accelerate his investment into bitcoin amounts, some guys might be capable of having his base investment amount into bitcoin as 10% of his salary, and then consider any extra money that comes in to him to be authorized to be invested into bitcoin. That will help to build the base, and other various kinds of front-loading that can happen, yet at the same time, there is a bit of an assumption that after 3 cycles, it is quite likely that a lot of compounding ended up taking place, so the guy's being aggressive in his investment beyond the 10% has contributed towards his being able to profit from any compounding of value that ended up taking place in the bitcoin that he had been accumulating.

Quote from: Poker Player on Today at 03:54:18 PM

12 years saving without being able to enjoy the profits is a long time, although the most profitable thing in investments in general is not to touch them, and I would bet that very few people keep an investment 12 years without touching it that is not in a retirement fund. But apart from that, it's 12 years without having made a single bitcoin transaction.

A guy can invest into bitcoin and still engage in various kinds of spend and replace, and also practicing using various kinds of storage solutions and even ways of transacting, but yeah, if a guy bought a hardware wallet, a Start 9 server, and a mining rig for 0.05731632 BTC, and then maybe he would have a goal to replace that spent 0.05731632 BTC BTC with 0.0582 BTC purchases within the upcoming month (outside of his normal BTC buys).

12 years is really not a long time to invest in regards to potentially getting to a place in which a guy might end up having life changing money.

Historically, in bitcoin, a guy could have invested merely 10% of his salary into bitcoin and reached fuck you status within a couple of cycles. So see the example of a guy who invested $100 per week over the last 9 years (That would be a guy with an annual salary of $52k investing $5,200 per year), would have gotten right around to 15.75 BTC, which clearly would be enough to replace the guys salary in terms of being able to live off of the amount.

Right now, 15.75 BTC has a 200-WMA value of $665k and a spot price value of $1.6 million, so even going based on the 200-WMA value the guy could withdraw up to $66.5k per year, which is greater than his $52k salary... I would presume that the BTC is going to keep up with the debasement of the dollar, yet we might also consider that if a guy started out investing in bitcoin and his salary was $52k, then maybe now his salary is higher and maybe his salary even doubled in the last 9 years. Perhaps? So the guy has to make those kinds of calculations to figure out if he is going to keep buying bitcoin or even to just wait for his already accumulated 15.75 BTC is enough and he can use his discretionary income in other ways.

Guys also have choices whether to start withdrawing and living off of their BTC or to continue to work and to continue to build their BTC until it gets to their desired level (and there would have had been too many variables to completely figure out 9 years ago, yet with the passage of time, the guy can see progress, yet at the same time historical performance numbers are not going to necessarily give any kind of precise abilities to see future performance levels).

Even with fuck you status, such status does not have to be all or nothing, since it should be seen as giving more options. It seems that having the ability to completely replace a person's current salary by entering into a sustainable withdrawal of BTC tends to be quite a powerful place to be.. yet at the same time, any guy might still be a bit concerned about his own calculations of whether he has sufficiently reached fuck you status or not, or whether he might be making mistakes in his calculations, so he might feel more comfortable to build a bit more of a financial (presumably BTC) cushion prior to pulling any fuck you lever and cutting off his current income... which surely is understandable, since it might not good to pull the fuck you lever too soon, so in that sense, it remains good to make sure that the calculations are correct and/or that enough of a cushion exists in the finances (the BTC).

At the same time, surely there are some guys who might also wait too long to pull the fuck you lever, and not have enough confidence in following some kind of a sustainable withdrawal practice with their BTC. Guys are responsible to figure out these matters, and if they make mistakes they have to live with the consequences.. since their may well be several particulars that apply to one guy that might not apply to another guy.

Quote from: Poker Player on Today at 03:54:18 PM

So, what you say is mathematically the most reasonable, accumulate aggressively until you are sure you have more than enough, but in my case what I have done is to take advantage of the bull markets to make partial sales, sometimes directly spending the bitcoin to buy something, which seems to me to have two advantages.
1. You can enjoy a little the profits of the investment. It's more of a psychological issue than anything else for me.
2. You learn how bitcoin transactions work in a practical way. You know what it is like to send a transaction with the average fee at that moment and it stays stuck in the mempool for a while because there is a huge dump of transactions from a casino, an exchange or spammers with their images. You learn and perform RBF, for example.

I don't have any problem with practicing with your BTC. I consider that I did most of my accumulation in my first year, but then I could not stop myself from accumulating bitcoin for a bit more than 3 years, and maybe even 4 years, yet even in my very first year of bitcoin, I had several spend and replace. In my first year to two years of bitcoin, I even gave bitcoin as gifts to 20-30 people, and I would treat those as transactions as spend and replace, yet surely I was still spending my bitcoin, and likely even had less bitcoin than I could have had when I sent bitcoin to various other people, and very few ended up getting into bitcoin.

I would consider one of the potential problems with your spending your bitcoin might be that you are not really spending, but instead you are trying to engage in trading, so you try to spend when the BTC price goes up, but you also might stop your regular buying of bitcoin and you might even end up engaging in waiting strategies, so you are timing when to buy back...

Sure, I don't know exactly what you are doing, but there are a lot of guys who start to engage in trying to time the market prior to their even being close to having had accumulated even close to enough to really make meaningful changes in their lives.. so they are getting excited about their 2x or 3x profits, and then they end up having way less bitcoin because they end up not being able to replace the bitcoin that they sold.

Quote from: Poker Player on Today at 03:54:18 PM

This I have always done with small amounts of my total bitcoin, which from a mathematical point of view is stupid, I admit. Because if I use a tiny part of what I have when the price reaches $120K, I will keep buying later when it reaches $200K, but being very small parts of what you have I do not see it wrong for the above.

If you end up largely just staying focused on ongoing bitcoin accumulation, then I hardly see what you are doing as a problem, as an issue or even contrary to what I had been saying.

I know that I might sound adamant about not selling any bitcoin prior to having more than enough, and largely I am attempting to direct my comments at the guys who sell for the purpose of buying back cheaper. Hey, I have been selling bitcoin on the way up since $250 in late 2015, yet I have always had formulas that account for how much I am selling and in the early days I had allowed my self to sell up to 10% of my stash for every doubling of the BTC price, and these days it is less than 3% for every doubling of the BTC price, and so when I sell I do not expect to buy back, yet surely we know that bitcoin frequently ends up correcting, but I am not selling in order to buy back, even though sometimes I do end up using quite a bit of the money to buy back, especially when the BTC price dumps a lot such as in 2018 and in 2022.. .so I don't consider myself to be trading, but instead using the sales as a kind of insurance, but also I would rather that the BTC price keeps going up since I am selling such small amounts, and also I am way better off if the BTC price goes up rather than down... ..

Yet, for me, I have considered myself to be in an overaccumulation status since 2015, and I never got out of such status... hahahahahaha... the way that I assessed my over accumulation status was that my target was to have my BTC investment amount to be 10% of all of my then quasi-liquid investments, yet throughout 2015 BTC prices stayed down, and I ended up continuing to accumulate and I reached a status of something like 13.5%, so that was how I authorized myself to sell within my formulas, yet even with my sales, when BTC prices went from $250 in 2015 and up to $19,666 in 2017, my BTC allocation had gone from 13.5% to something around 85%, and then when BTC prices corrected back down to $4k-ish in 2018, I might have gotten as low as 45% in my BTC allocation, so I have continued to stay overallocated in bitcoin, and sure I shave off from time to time, but it is largely within my formulas of small amounts, and it tends to be more than adequate for me and my situation.. even though surely at any point I could feel that I could shave off a bunch of BTC since maybe I would say that there is a lot of compounding in the value of whatever I hold since my costs per BTC are in the ballpark of $1k per BTC, so the profits are around 100x, if I were to choose to take such profits (or to cash out more than the regular formulas).

Maybe I am getting way too far off topic?

Quote from: Poker Player on Today at 03:54:18 PM

I already have two investments in which I put money and I don't enjoy the profits such as paying the mortgage and putting money in retirement funds, so enjoying a little of the bull market doesn't seem bad to me, and at the end of the day my total net worth, whether in bull or bear market, whether I have sold a little of my bitcoin or not, continues to grow, which I think is what is important.

Many people have their main investments as their personal residence and perhaps some kind of a 401k, and so if some of those 401ks might have bitcoin options (such as MSTR or ETF options), then they could choose within their 401ks, otherwise they are faced with choosing the buying of BTC directly. It can be difficult for people to invest beyond their personal residence and their 401k, and surely there is a bit of a perversion with the personal residence serving as an investment (especially since it is not very liquid, it has a lot of costs, and frequently people buy houses that are more expensive than they can afford, so they are left without a lot of money left over to invest into anything else).

It can be quite challenging for anyone to invest, even up to 10% into bitcoin if they might have 30% or more of their income going into their mortgage payment, maybe up to 10% going into their 401k, so then they might consider the other portion of their income to be needed to live off of rather than investing into something like bitcoin.

I recall prior to 2014, I had been contributing into a 401k, so it was very compelling for me to do at least 5% for the employer matching, and then i could do another 10% or so since it was pretax dollars (and a kind of tax free), so then it would have had been difficult to still be able to invest into bitcoin if those were being maximized.. In late 2013, I had been looking for a substitute for my 401k since my employment was ending.. even though I still was able to keep the 401k, I just was not going to be able to add new value to it or to get the employer matching for the first 5% of the contributions. It worked out quite well for me to be able to end up finding bitcoin as a substitute (or a complement) for my 401k..and by the way, the 401k had been building value for about 15 years, and so I figured that it would take around 10-20 years for any investments that I made, such as in bitcoin to end up matching my 401k values, but it seems that my BTC investment was matching my 401k values within about 3.5 years... and yeah a lot of that ended up being due to BTC price appreciation and just regular contributions to the BTC stash rather than any attempt so try to trade the BTC or to time the market or any of those kinds of things that guys seem to want to do in their first cycle investing into BTC.. so it just seems better to just stay focused on continually buying BTC until getting enough or more than enough.

Quote from: Poker Player on Today at 03:54:18 PM

Although, yes, I admit that what you propose, not selling/spending any of your bitcoin until you have more than enough, is the most mathematically correct thing to do. Although for me, if someone like bitmover for whatever reasons has been selling parts of his bitcoin but always keeps part of his net worth in it, it is OK, although he himself admits that he sold more than he should have in the past.

I had never accused bitmover of NOT keeping sufficient quantities of his BTC, and I have always suspected that he had been keeping more than half of his BTC no matter what, yet part of the problem, that I perceive, is that guys are selling in order to either buy back cheaper or they are engaging in a waiting game.. waiting for the BTC price to fall so they can buy, and those waiting games are not very good when 1) guys already don't have enough BTC and 2) BTC prices are going up without any meaningful drops.. .. Pretty much from November 2022 until now there have not been a whole hell of a lot of meaningful drops in the BTC price... sure there have been some BTC price drops, but still, it seems that it would have had been much better to just continue to buy and not to be looking at the BTC price...and yeah, bitmover is not in his first cycle, so he has had time to go through a whole cycle of accumulating BTC, yet still sometimes a whole cycle of accumulating BTC is still not enough... There are many guys (if not most) who need several cycles to get to a point of having had accumulated enough or more than enough, and in my own situation, I was ONLY able to accumulate BTC more quickly than regular folks since I had already spent more than 20 years investing prior to coming into bitcoin, so in late 2013 and thereafter, I had way more of an investment portfolio to work with as compared with so many guys who are ONLY able to DCA with their salary and maybe something like 5% to 25% of their income is still going to be a challenge to even accumulate enough BTC in 1 whole cycle... so sure there are some guys who come to bitcoin, and they already have investment portfolios, so they may well be advantaged in terms of being able to accumulate BTC more quickly as compared to an overwhelming majority of normies who barely have any money to invest, and if they do have money to invest, their money may well be tied up in their own personal residential and perhaps a 401k, if they are lucky to have such a thing.