Quote from: ginsan on December 20, 2024, 09:37:47 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 20, 2024, 07:07:24 AM

~~I attempt to practice what I preach, and sure I have learned over the years, too, and I have made various mistakes along the way.

Yet, many times in these forum threads, when I am talking about what guys need to do, I am frequently assuming that guys are in their early accumulation stages in regards to building their bitcoin portfolio, so I try to address my comments in terms of the most likely audience rather than talking about my own situation, since I had already been in bitcoin for quite a while and accumulating starting back in late 2013. It seems to me that newbies, and especially guys who are still in the earliest times of building their investment portfolios need to attempt to stay focused on continuing to build their investment portfolio, which takes a long time to build, especially for an overwhelming majority of newbies to investment and newbies to bitcoin.

When I got into bitcoin, I had already spent 20 years investing into other kinds of investments, so I was in a decently good position to front load my investment into bitcoin rather than strictly building from nothing, yet I still spent a lot of time DCAing into bitcoin for more than a year, which was a front loading way of getting into bitcoin.

I recall in late 2014, I was thinking that I largely had met my BTC accumulation targets which was reaching somewhere in the ballpark of 10% of my quasi-liquid investment portfolio into bitcoin, yet since the whole of 2015 bitcoin stayed down in prices, I continued to buy bitcoin and I ended up overaccumulating to around 13.5% of my quasi-liquid investment portfolio into bitcoin, so I felt somewhat overinvested, yet I did not take any drastic measures, and when the BTC price went up from around $250 per coin in mid 2015 to around $19,666 per coin in late 2017, my BTC holdings had gotten to around 85% of my quasi-liquid investment portfolio, and when bitcoin crashed into the $3ks in late 2018 and even in March 2020, my bitcoin holdings had gotten down to as low as 45% of my quasi-liquid investment portfolio... and so there can be ways to deal with these kinds over overaccumulation matters, and my strategies mostly emphasize holding, even though I really have not considered myself to be in my accumulation phase since early 2017 or so..

Of course your journey is good enough for you to review, we want to hear more about your journey in holding Bitcoin and it will all be an important experience for us in holding bitcoin in any condition that will happen in the future.

Well, how do you feel depressed when there is a sharp decline like in 2017 or precisely entering the gloomy years the following year. Do you think about negative things, such as the era of the highest increase will not be repeated or has ended at that time.

Of course, any of us can feel some stress both when the BTC price goes up a lot and also when it crashes back down. I attempted to put a system in place in order that I would sell small amounts on the way up and then buy back in increments as the BTC prices falls back down, yet I did not start that plan until I felt that I had reached a state of overaccumulation.

The amounts that are sold on the way up are relatively small... tending to get smaller and smaller with the passage of time, yet back in 2017, I was selling a bit less than 10% every time the BTC price doubled (yet in smaller increments on the way up), and so the value of the BTC holdings become much higher when the BTC price is going up rather than going down, but the sold amounts on the way up provide some comfort when the BTC price goes down, and in 2018 that was about 85% at the maximum down point. So there can be some stress and regrets, yet we still have to figure out what is a good system overall.. and there were a lot of guys who were stressing in 2018, yet still some of them still were not at a point that they had accumulated enough BTC so they needed to keep accumulating.... even if they had gotten in around the same time as me or maybe some of them were newer than me into bitcoin, so it can be stressful to go through those kinds of periods.

We had a similar period in 2022, even though the amount of UP was not the same as 2017, the amount of down got to very similar levels of despair, especially since the 2022 correction ended up going way below the 200-WMA, which had not happened in prior correction cycles. Really 2022 we had nearly 16 months of the BTC spot price being around or below the 200-WMA, with the max low point of the BTC spot price getting to right around 36% below the 200-WMA.

I think that for me personally, I have gotten better at dealing with the volatility, but it still is not easy, but it helps to mostly be in profits by many multiples, so even if we might consider that I had times in which my average cost per BTC was around $500 (and perhaps even below) $500 per BTC, I would like to error correct that my cost per BTC may well be between $750 and $1k per BTC, and so I frequently like to round to $1k per BTC in order to help to consider the level of profits within easier to calculate boundaries... so maybe we say that my profits in 2017 and afterwards went from being in the negative to being 20x in profits, yet the correction back down put me in the 3.5x to 10x territory for many parts of 2017 and all the way until 2020...

So then the 2021 run brought my holdings up to 69x profits, but then dropped back down to 16x profits at the lowest point, and so even though there can be stress in either direction, the cushion between cost per BTC and abilities to cash out get greater, so if a person is managing their BTC holdings well, even if BTC continues to be volatile, there might not be big differences in terms of cashing out at 50x-ish or even cashing out at 108x, especially since the cash out amounts might ONLY be a fraction over the overall holdings.

So a guy could decide to cash out a certain quantity of BTC that might have cost him $100 worth of BTC, and if he cashes out at 55x, then he will get $5,550 for that $100 investment, or maybe if he were cashing out today he would get $9,700 for that same $100 cost. Sure it makes a difference, but it might not be a great difference in terms of the Bitcoin continuing to give value and options, and no real compelling need to cash out large portions, just cash out amounts that are reasonably needed and when there might not be other sources of cash to spend first.

There can be questions about "I need to spend more," and some of that problem comes from having gone through a lot of the periods of just letting bitcoin's compounding value play out and not cashing out too much too soon, so that later down the road more options might end up coming available. Such options are not guaranteed, but they seem to be worth taking chances to put value into bitcoin since bitcoin's investment thesis does not seem to be getting any weaker, even if its upside potential might not be as great as it was 10 years ago.

Quote from: ginsan on December 20, 2024, 09:37:47 PM

Of course, you are our mentor because you are an early investor who is involved in bitcoin. So you know strongly that bitcoin will change the world as we witness today. Well to support that point, can you share your predictions about excessive accumulation, whether you get money through loans to buy bitcoin or you sell everything you own such as cars, land to be able to buy bitcoin.

The longer that any of us are in bitcoin then we allow the time-factor to work in our favor. You know that frequently I suggest to invest into bitcoin as aggressively as you are able to invest into it without overdoing it, and none of us can know where that might be. I know that it can be tempting to want to have nice things when we are young, yet it also seems that if we defer some of our gratification, then we can invest that into bitcoin, yet each person has to figure out the balance of how much to invest into bitcoin versus how much to spend on some consumer items versus how much to spend on investing into himself. Frequently, there can be value in guys building up their job skills and their experiences, so that they can have more opportunities to be eligible for jobs that pay more so that discretionary income is higher and then so some of that extra money can be put into bitcoin. It is difficult to answer for anyone else in terms of which investments to make, and I even had some periods in which I felt that I was not earning much money or I was working in some jobs that were low paying, but the jobs were convenient for me while I was studying and/or while I might have had been getting other experiences and/or work experiences to be able to get better jobs at later points down the road.

Quote from: Jewan420 on December 20, 2024, 09:45:24 AM

Quote from: OgNasty on December 20, 2024, 09:20:39 AM

With the holidays being here I don’t think people have a lot of dry powder to throw at the market right now. A shame because I don’t think we’ve seen the high yet for this cycle. It does seem like a possibility that this could be the last chance you will get to buy Bitcoin below $100,000 for possibly several years.

In the current context, we can call Bitcoin bearish or dip time.

You are using the term bearish wrong. Bitcoin has been in a bull market since November 2022. Yeah, maybe we were not sure if we were in a bull market until either mid-2023 or perhaps we did not know until as last as October 2023, yet we have been in a bull market ever since.

Yes. During a bull market corrections happen, but those should not be called bearish since there is no such thing as bear within a bull. We are either in a bull or a bear.

If we convert to a bear market, then we might not know for 3-6 months or longer, but that unrealization of coming out of the bull market does not mean that it is very accurate, meaningful or informative to be proclaiming every dip is a bear trend when it is not .. it is merely a correction within a bull market, even if it might last a while, just like the March to October period of our current year may be proclaimed as a correction (consolidation) within an already present bull market, and our bull market never went away, merely be cause we were in the midst of an extended correction./consolidation.

Quote from: Jewan420 on December 20, 2024, 09:45:24 AM

The $95k price gives me more opportunities to make more profit or profit from Bitcoin compared to the bullish price that Bitcoin has been bullish for a few days. Many are panicking in such a situation, but I am using this time to enjoy it. Because I do not know if I will get the opportunity to buy Bitcoin at such a low price again? It is completely unknown whether Bitcoin will come below $100k in the future. I am trying to be as aggressive in my investments as possible considering this time as the time of Bitcoin's dip.

It is certain that we have not yet entered the main bull run. I am not at all worried about when the main bull run will start. I consider the current time to be the ideal time to profit myself. How much more Bitcoin will dump is questionable, but I think Bitcoin will not come below $90k. Maybe we'll see strong resistance at $95k. I don't want to announce it, but I'm going to buy big in a short period of time. But it's within my capabilities.

Sure.. no problem. You figure out how you want to manage your own accumulation strategies.

Unless you came across your money recently, you seem to be saying that you have been hanging onto that money and not buying as much as you could have or should have been doing prior to November.

None of us can judge for others, and there seem to be plenty of people buying now who seem like they should have been buying during our 8-ish months while we were mostly bouncing around between $55k and $70k.

Quote from: SuperBitMan on December 20, 2024, 02:48:28 PM

Quote from: MuffinMaster on December 20, 2024, 07:25:38 AM

Quote from: BITCOIN4X on December 19, 2024, 08:26:11 PM

I think some people really get emotional for a while when they don't have more money to accumulate bitcoins. Amid the current major correction, this should be a valuable opportunity to buy and accumulate. Unfortunately, some of them may not have spare money that can be used at times like these. Buying when prices are dip is a good strategy, but buying when prices are dip of dip is always better, which means DCA makes it possible.

I don't know how low the price will correct today, but I don't think it will go lower than $95k. Recovery is expected as soon as this panic subsides and today's close is expected to be over $99k. In the last 24 hours, the price has fallen by 4.5%, this is not always considered a bad thing by those who can take advantage of the opportunity.

The price of Bitcoin is at 97k and there is nothing to worry about this small correction. Bitcoin is fully bullish and it won't stop it's upword trend in near future.

Those who already have accumulated bitcoins can wait for market to settle. There is no need to panic if you are out of cash since bitcoin gives lots of opportunities to buy. If you haven't bought any bitcoin then entering bitcoin at current price will be a bit risky.

This are wrong advise I disagree with you, firstly it's wrong telling people who are already in Bitcoin accumulation journey to wait till Bitcoin settle if I may ask settle for what exactly, Bitcoin having a dip didn't start today it's part of Bitcoin growth people who are already accumulating Bitcoin should continue, infact this is an opportunity for them to accumulate more Bitcoin with less price since there's a dip and not for them to wait.

You are wrong for saying if someone haven't bought any bitcoin then entering bitcoin at current price will be a bit risky, I totally disagree with you because there's no best time for someone to start accumulating Bitcoin, if you see now as a bad time to start accumulating Bitcoin then you really don't understand Bitcoin and how it works and you have no idea about Bitcoin and it's history growth.

The only way to prepare for UP is to have some bitcoin.

A new person, by definition, has no bitcoin, so the ONLY way for them to prepare for UP is to buy some bitcoin. To me, it seems more risky to not buy any bitcoin rather than buying bitcoin, especially if the person does not have any bitcoin or alternatively if the person does not have enough bitcoin (is a low coiner).^**

**By the way, there are two types of low coiners. 1) the type of low coiners who are actively stacking bitcoin but are early in their bitcoin journey, perhaps less than 4 years stacking and 2) low coiners who have some bitcoin, and are not actively stacking and perhaps who even believe that they have enough or question the value proposition of bitcoin.
It might be difficult to label the 1st category as a low coiner since he is actively stacking, and perhaps he could be whimipy or aggressive in his stacking, but at least he is stacking so he has a chance to get out of low coiner status. I am a bit reluctant to consider the aggressive stacker as a low coiner, even when they perceive themselves as not having enough bitcoin, especially since it tends to take a long time to get to a point of having enough BTC or more than enough.

Quote from: Tungbulu on December 20, 2024, 09:54:54 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 20, 2024, 07:07:24 AM

Quote from: ginsan on December 19, 2024, 09:27:11 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 18, 2024, 09:38:55 PM

Since we cannot turn back the clock, we just have to try to figure out our BTC accumulation plan from the present, and if we feel that we don't have enough BTC, we have to continue to accumulate it... and sure your calculations might start to change once you start to reaching a status of having enough BTC or you have the fortune of getting to a status of having more than enough BTC.

That's right sir, we have to know when this should be planned and when it will be done. For that I myself consider that btc ownership is still far from my target so that accumulation continues as usual. There is no fear at all because there is no satisfaction in myself so that routine purchases must continue for the next few years.

If you look at BTC from year to year, of course the price changes and that makes planning every year change, meaning that every year scarcity will occur, the holder will win, that's what I often hear, so we want to be winners in the future so we prioritize continuing to buy and hold it.

I think you are also a winner, because you have held bitcoin for a long time, are you satisfied or do you routinely continue to buy btc.

I attempt to practice what I preach, and sure I have learned over the years, too, and I have made various mistakes along the way.

Yet, many times in these forum threads, when I am talking about what guys need to do, I am frequently assuming that guys are in their early accumulation stages in regards to building their bitcoin portfolio, so I try to address my comments in terms of the most likely audience rather than talking about my own situation, since I had already been in bitcoin for quite a while and accumulating starting back in late 2013. It seems to me that newbies, and especially guys who are still in the earliest times of building their investment portfolios need to attempt to stay focused on continuing to build their investment portfolio, which takes a long time to build, especially for an overwhelming majority of newbies to investment and newbies to bitcoin.

It is indeed a very commendable approach to offer guidance and targeting it to individuals who are in their early stages of their Bitcoin accumulation and building their Bitcoin portfolio to a very comfortable position. By doing this, you’ll be able to provide valuable support to those who really need it the most, because these are the most misguided people when it comes to Bitcoin accumulation, because they can easily make certain mistakes when there’s a temporary displacement in the market. without proper guidance, their target can easily be shifted from the long term goal to the short term and when that happens. They can easily make mistakes that may likely lead to financial losses. But when they constantly receive the proper guidance, it serves as a kind of reminder to always tell them to always focus on the long term goals rather than the short term. It’s indeed a commendable approach.

Each of us has to also put the theories into practice, which includes finding out our own balances in terms of our cashflows and how much we can invest into bitcoin versus if we might need to spend some time, energy and value building our job skills and our experiences so that we can make more money to be able to invest into bitcoin.

Most likely all of us are going to make various mistakes along the way, and surely it is better if we make mistakes that don't take us out of the game, yet show us how we might need to adjust our approach in various ways. Sometimes I will try to share some of my mistakes, if I see someone who might be making a mistake that I had made previously, yet the experiences might not be exactly alike, and so the person might not be in a position to learn from my mistakes without either making the same mistake or making some similar variation of that same mistake. There might be other times that mistakes are gambles and risk taking that are not clearly known to be mistakes, especially if the gamble ends up paying off, so then the mistake is not seen at that time.. and so the mistake might be repeated until the gamble no longer ends up paying off, and then the mistake might become known.

Also, I recall that so many times, I would plot out my budgets on paper, and so it was very cumbersome and repetitive, yet it had some systematic ways that worked on paper, yet they might not work if a guy might be starting out using a computer program (such as Excel) or if a guy has some similar programs on his cell phone., but then there still might be some practicality in plotting some of the matters out on paper, too. I found excel to be very powerful (and helpful) to me when I started using it in the late 1990s and into the early 2,000s, and so several of my plotting out systems have gotten more sophisticated, even though sometimes I will still plot out some ideas on paper - yet frequently I think that I probably could put that in Excel so that I can copy and paste variations of the formula in order to see how different variations of the scenarios play out.

My point is that there can be a lot of values in putting in some of the work to plot out plans and even execute plans, so then after plotting out and executing the plans, there are better ideas about how such plans can be individually tailored, and striving to account for the 9 individual factors, too.