Quote from: fillippone on Today at 07:18:10 AM

Quote from: NotATether on Today at 05:32:57 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 05:05:35 AM

Keep in mind that my own ideas regarding withdrawal or sustainable withdrawal, whether based on price or based on time, presume that the person had reached a status of over-accumulation.. or alternatively using a set budget, for example giving a 10 Bitcoin budget to a business, then if the business were to be using a time-based withdrawal system, then the business could figure out its withdrawal rate, and so for example the tool currently asserts that a 4% annual withdrawal rate would be 0.03333333 BTC per month, even though surely I want to adjust the tool so that it would use the 200-WMA dollar value, yet we have not yet made such adjustment, and then perhaps be able to withdraw up to 10% based on that way of valuating the BTC holdings, yet we have not yet made those adjustments... so until we make such changes, it may well be better to stick with more conservative withdrawal rates of around 4-6% annualized.

0.03 BTC sounds very high even for a 10 BTC budget.

It may be just me, but I have an even lower percentage withdrawal rate, somewhere between 1-2% a year.

It is indeed very high, given the current price action.
But remember that going into the future, prices will grow slower, even accounting for incredibly bullish scenarios like a Power Law framework.
You can set your hypothesis on the included spreadsheet, and I think this is important as well: a portion of Bitcoin left for future generations, as we are the lucky ones building and looking for intergenerational wealth.

I still think that when I used 4% as my example of a withdrawal rate, I very much understated the possible sustainable withdrawal rate for bitcoin, even though traditional investment assets use such a 4% rate, and sometimes the traditional assets get into trouble because they are not even able to continue to average more than 4% ongoing appreciation - which surely there can be a lot of variance in regards to the performance of various assets in which a traditional fund will invest, and surely in recent times, we also likely realize that the dollar has largely been debasing at rates higher than 4% annually, so we would likely be losing purchasing power if we had been continuing with a 4% annual withdrawal rate with traditional assets.

We can look historically back at the rise of the 200-WMA, and we can see that it has never gone lower than rising 20% annualized, so my thoughts are that as long as the BTC spot price is mostly staying at least 20% to 25% the 200-WMA, then we would not need to take any measures to reduce our withdrawal rate, even if we withdrawing fairly high rates, even approaching 10% per year... and so 4% should be way less controversial than 10%, so surely I would not battle so much if guys are giving me push back about a 10% withdrawal rate, and surely I know that guys might not even employ the 10% withdrawal rate based on the 200-WMA and also to reduce their withdrawal amounts if the BTC price starts to get below 25% above the 200-WMA, as such reductions in withdrawal rates are described in the withdrawal recommendation instructions of the sustainable withdrawal tool accordingly:

>>>>>>"When the BTC spot price is at least 25% above the 200-week moving average, then at least 1 month's withdrawal will be authorized; however,

A) if the BTC spot price is between 10% and 25% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 90% of the current month's limit.
B. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 10% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 85% of the current month's limit.
C. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 20% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 70% of the current month's limit.
D. if the BTC spot price is between 20% and 30% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 50% of the current month's limit.
E. if the BTC spot price is greater than 30% and 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 40% of the current month's limit.
F. if the BTC spot price is greater than 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be not be authorized to withdraw any BTC from the budget."<<<<<<<

By the way, even though some forum members consider building their bitcoin stash based on intergenerational wealth considerations, I doubt that we necessarily need to consider our own stash in that kind of a hoarding way, and we likely still could be able to build up a large enough stash that we might be able to both live off of it and also perhaps (but not necessarily having to) pass down whatever wealth we have left over to heirs that we might have.

Quote from: bitmover on Today at 11:20:07 AM

I think it is good to spend some of our bitcoin savings in experiences, not just relocating that btc to other assets.

I think this tool can somewhat guide you to spend some more in a more rational way

Personally, I still consider that it is much better to strive towards a status of overaccumulation of bitcoin, and if we are spending prior to reaching such status, then we likely should be careful in regards to how much BTC we are withdrawing.. so yeah, it is not an easy balance to figure out, since a person could end up spending way too much too soon, if he had not first reached a status of overaccumulation prior to starting to spend his BTC, and perhaps in bitcoin it is good to be accumulting for a cycle or two and even to have some time between accumulation stage and then a stage of starting to withdraw BTC. We have seen a lot of folks regretting that they spent too many BTC too soon, since they were not able to continue to build and defer gratification for a cycle or two, and instead they start spending BTC within one cycle. .which I have difficulties imagining how bitcoin might have had sufficiently grown in such a short period of time such as merely one cycle or less, as compared to those who are approaching a couple of cycles or more.

But, yeah, each of us has to try to figure out our level of starting to cash out based on our own satisfaction regarding our BTC stash and to figure out if we have yet accumulated enough in order to start cashing out, so going back to the example of the guy that had accumulated 10 BTC, he might feel that currently he needs closer to 20 BTC in order to start to cash out, so he might either continue to stack his BTC, or perhaps in a few more years (based on projections of the 200-WMA), his same 10 BTC may well be worth similarly as 20 BTC are today, so he merely needs to either hold out until late 2027, and he can spend from his fiat if he does not feel that it is helpful for him to continue to stack BTC in the next 3-ish years... yet I am trying to assert that sometimes the passage of time has historically allowed a lower and lower quantity of BTC to accomplish similar kinds of goals in terms of BTC historically appreciating in value way better than any other asset and/or currency, and there is no real evidence that such dynamic is NOT going to continue in bitcoin, even though surely past performance does not equal future results and there could potentially be a variety of ways in which bitcoin ends up underperforming expectations, yet any of us who are in the process of cashing out BTC or considering starting to cash out BTC may well need to be attempting to account for various scenarios that not only attempt to project base case ideas, yet also outlier situations in either BTC price direction.

Quote from: bitmover on Today at 03:18:09 PM

Quote from: Poker Player on Today at 02:43:47 PM

Quote from: bitmover on Today at 11:20:07 AM

Recently i read a book called die with zero, which made me rethink a lot of my ideas of accumulation of money

You don't have offspring, do you? The Rothschilds are very happy with you believing that idea, I wouldn't be surprised if they had paid the author underhand.

I don't care about Rothschild or any other billionaire. I just want to live my life the best way possible, I don't want to change the world.

I know money grows over time, but Money has a declining utility over you age.
You can save millions until you are 75 , missing many good experiences. Then all that will be left will be spending millions in better hospitals when you are 80s 90s (because you won't be able to travel at that age) Or just left all your sacrifice over the years for your kids (which might not even need your money when you die)

Spending money in experiences which will make you a happier person and with more culture is a good way to spend money, imo.

I am not against the idea of passing on some wealth to kids and also mostly attempting to spend money too, and personally, it seems to me that bitcoin allows a lot of the possibilities of being able to accomplish both...living well, and also making sure that you have a cash cushion, whether you plan to leave that cash cushion to heirs or just to have it just in case... no one really wants to outlive their money either, which does seem to be a bit of a common trend that happens with folks once they reach their elder years, to the extent that they are not working anymore, they tend to become somewhat dependent upon fixed income kinds of cashflows that are not keeping up with the cost of living, even though like you mentioned, it may well be the case that some elderly may not have as many expenses as they had when they were younger and were physically able to do more things.

I think that Poker Player is correct with the idea that bitcoin can quite likely allow us to both spend more as we get older, increase our standard of living and still maintain and perhaps even have our bitcoin growing as we are choosing our withdrawal levels in ways that are sustainable and even growth-oriented.

Quote from: Poker Player on Today at 03:43:39 PM

Quote from: bitmover on Today at 03:18:09 PM

You can save millions until you are 75 , missing many good experiences.

To this day I don't miss any experience I would like to do to save money. The main one would be to quit my 9 to 5 job but for that I don't have enough net worth yet.
Besides, I think it is a mistake to put the focus on saving.

The book is the well known YOLO but told in a different way.
It happened to me the other way around when I was younger. I spent a lot of money on bullshit because I didn't know if I was going to die tomorrow and with hindsight that money spent didn't make me any happier.

Surely if we throw some numbers out there, and maybe we are currently considering something like $6k per month to be what we would need to have a sustainable and comfortable kind of an existence, even though it could be that our current income is ONLY in the ballpark of $4k per month. So maybe we would project forward a bit of a cushion, and also when we project forward in bitcoin, we likely are presuming that bitcoin has decently good chances to outperform the debasement of fiat and also to continue to appreciate in value sufficiently that we are able to withdraw 4% or higher, yet if we are still trying to be conservative with our numbers like you (@Poker Player) seemed to have had been doing in your earlier projections, then we might see how much 1% to 2% would get us so that we would not end up pulling the fuck you lever too soon. So if we underestimate our BTC withdrawal rate and we see that we are able to live off of a withdrawal rate that is so low as 1% to 2%, then we also likely have enough of a cushion in our framework, even though it could also be the case that we are overly lowballing our realistic abilities to live off bitcoin with a much smaller stash size than we had been considering that we were going to be needing, when the time comes to pull the fuck you lever (meaning quitting your job and living off your bitcoin or otherwise no longer needing to sustain ourselves through the wages of a 9-5 job).