Quote from: ravenjt on April 28, 2014, 09:47:16 AM

If you believe that there is a 20% chance or more of Bitcoin being worth $10,000 within three years time, then I recommend that you sell everything you own, including your house, and put all of the money into Bitcoin, right now.

The current price is about $500, so $10,000 represents a 20 fold increase. If you think you have a one in five (20%) chance of achieving that (and let's say the only other outcome is Bitcoin = zero), then your expected profit is at least five-fold, over three years. That is an annualised (probability weighted) performance of 82%.

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This is not time to think about 'what you can afford to lose'. You can afford to lose everything, you can always beg on the street. But you cannot afford to miss this.

You are basically assuming that marginal utility is constant; that an extra $10 is just as valuable to Bill Gates as it is to someone begging for food on the street.

For most people that is very far from the truth. Most people won't even accept a 5% risk of their children becoming homeless even in exchange for an expected profit of 100-fold.

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Personally, I do not believe that the chance is 20%. I think the chance is only about 0.1%. Bitcoin of $10,000 creates too much incentive for someone to come up with an alternative, superior, cryptocurrency that is better able to assist international transactions.

That's what people used to say about $100. Creating an alternative that will overtake Bitcoin is a lot harder than creating an alternative that will overtake Wikipedia (which also hasn't happened so far). There are multiple, powerful network effects at play.