Quote from: Greyhats on December 30, 2024, 11:48:43 PM

Quote from: Roseline492 on December 30, 2024, 08:41:41 PM

Quote from: Proty on December 29, 2024, 06:40:08 PM

Just of recent I met a guy that said he is waiting for bitcoin to dip to $35k before he continues accumulating which is very wrong.

who would even think about that right now, has the person check Bitcoin recently to see the price?, perhaps you should have explained to him that he might be waiting for even $20 years time and the price will not even near that $35k, sometimes is very easy to tell if someone is just bluffing about Bitcoin investment because he was just pretending that he will invest when deeply he is not and I cannot see why some persons are hating themselves for starting now instead of earlier and your friend is talking about waiting for $35k when Bitcoin is swinging $90k to $100k plus, it actually called for a big laugh and perhaps those speculators must have whispered him such thing before concluding on that.

I would say never say never, take the action during the ATL in mid NOV ~~2021~~ 2022 where the price dipped 36% below the 200wma.

FTFY

Quote from: Greyhats on December 30, 2024, 11:48:43 PM

Lets consider 200 wma currently (42032) and with a 36% haircut you get to ~27k.

Even though I get similar measurements as you, the 200-WMA is currently much higher than your amounts. I see $42,716, which gives me $27,338.. .yeah similar results, even though your 200-WMA seems a wee bit on the low side.

Quote from: Greyhats on December 30, 2024, 11:48:43 PM

We definitely in a different part of the cycle so its hard to compare the two times, but certainly useful to help figure out bottom ranges, I'm very bullish in the fact that the 200 wma is ever increasing and that your probably right that spot to 35k wont go there , but I would feel much more confident in that when the 200 wma sits at closer to 48k.

We can never completely rest with 100% confidence, yet I am with you that we should be attempting to measure from base case scenarios that are more likely rather than fantasizing about something that seems to be just being made up... and would need some pretty extreme events to play out to come even close to happening.

Quote from: Greyhats on December 30, 2024, 11:48:43 PM

More than likely the person as you say doesn't have the conviction yet, and thats why they aren't buying in, but they could also be watching the 200wma ranges too, and be willing to wait a long time. I will absolutely say I disagree with that type of approach though, DCA & HODL for the win!

Yep, any newbie should be mostly just buying consistently, persistently, ongoingly, regularly, and perhaps even aggressively, and sure maybe at some point the newbie will have had accumulated a sufficient amount of BTC that it starts to make more sense to start to try to figure out ways to buy BTC on the dip rather than just buying without focusing very much, if at all, on BTC's price.