I have read it all and one of the wise members @Eternad already pointed out the obvious mistake in all the data provided by OP;
What is the obvious mistake in all the data provided by OP?
But you should input the winning percentage set on the game to determine the win/loss ratio if it will match to the outcome or not.
Ok, let me input the 49,75% winning percentage and then it determines the win/loss ratio = 49,75% / 50,25%
No, it does not match, because I lost 10 times more than I statistically should!
300K is indeed a good size for sample imho which can already use to check the math.
300K apples is indeed a goof seize to check the math?
181,000 bets is also a good size to check the math!