Quote from: Tungbulu on Today at 02:35:57 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 12:15:42 AM

Personally, I doubt that it is accurate to say that "everything is unpredictable with bitcoin," especially since many of us invest into bitcoin because we think that we have ideas about where it may be going, so the mere fact that we don't know with certainty does not mean that we aren't able to figure out some kind of bitcoin investment thesis and then to figure out how we are going to allocate in regards to our bitcoin-related investment thesis.

That’s indeed a very notable and agreeable point you made there. It’s true that Bitcoin can be super volatile but that doesn’t really mean that everything about it is totally and completely unpredictable or that we are not able to make some potentially guesses about its future price movement and everyone is just blindly investing in it without actually having a glimpse of where it may likely go.
A lot of investors we know (including yourself) do have a very clear investment thesis and strategy for investing in Bitcoin and even though these thesis are no 100% accurate, it still offers a vivid direction of how to navigate the Bitcoin market.

The fact that we can’t predict Bitcoin’s price movement with 100% certainty doesn’t really mean that we can just conclude that everything about Bitcoin is totally and completely unpredictable, yes the unpredictability and volatility of the Bitcoin market cannot be denied but it is only to an extent. We are still able to analyze trends, market sentiments, as well as several other factors that have the potential to influence the bitcoin market and we may be able to use these factors to make better investment decisions.

These uncertainties in the market are inevitable and the goal isn’t to totally eliminate them entirely but to be able to manage them, and we can be able to achieve this by developing a well thought out strategy, approach and investment thesis because by doing so, we are to navigate the market trends and movements.

Of course, we can also adjust our size and hedge in a variety of ways. Some guys find it impossible to imagine a way to prepare for a variety of directions at the same time, and a lot of the ways of preparation relates to position size (and probably not trying to be too greedy), and probably there is some mentality too in regards to attempting to anticipate various scenarios, but not to get all worked up merely because some low likely scenario ends up playing out, including hopefully none of us end up getting totally wrecked merely because we expected 99% odds in 2022 that BTC prices would not go below the 200-WMA, and maybe we miscalculated the odds, yet when the BTC price went below the 200-WMA in June-ish of 2022, it ended up spending around 16 months below the 200-WMA until October 2023, so did we end up wrecking ourselves because we miscalculated.

Surely some people did miscalculate and the even did really dumb stuff, like selling at the bottom, yet there still can be ways to survive even if we end up not being correct in what we expected and we also had a lot of other scenarios that we speculated to be way more likely to occur, but those more likely scenarios did not end up playing out, but we were not recked because the ultimate scenario went opposite to what we thought was going to happen... we could still have money available to buy.. or maybe we ran out of money so our back up approach was to just sit through the whole timeline and wait it out.. o

Or perhaps, we ended up being dumb and we sold at the bottom, and later we found out that selling at or near the bottom would have been a bad strategy, but there were surely a decent number of bitcoin holders who ended up either recking themselves or considerably affecting their own BTC holdings in a very negative way since their plan ended up getting played out in a way that we later realized (and may have realized at the time) to have had been dumb (maybe even retarded?. hahahahaha) to have had sold BTC during that period.. even if we were not in a position to buy (and buying would have had been better, yet I will admit that even I mostly ran out of money during that period, and so I was able to buy ONLY small amounts during that period, since I had largely bought back between around $60k all the way down to $25k and the lower it got the less money I had left for buying more BTC.. and that is sometimes how extreme situations may well end up playing out and we don't know if the BTC prices might have ended up going to $10k as folks were predicting, but they ended up not going any lower than $15,479 at the lowest BTC price points during that potentially tragic period... more tragic for some than for others...and surely it helps when we are able to survive those periods without overly screwing things up, and I am not going to proclaim it is easy or that it is not emotional to go through those kinds of extreme negative price performance periods.

Quote from: Mayor of ogba on Today at 02:36:31 AM

Quote from: SuperBitMan on January 11, 2025, 11:07:28 PM

[edited out]

Surely you can use your discretionary income for any type of investment you want to venture into, and nobody will stop you from doing that because it is your discretionary income. You can even choose to give out your discretionary income to members of your family since it would not stop you from sorting out your daily expenses. Since you are investing you discretionary income into bitcoin, don't see it as money you can't afford to lose because it is your leftover money, and you can even decide to go on vacation with it if it is good enough to handle a vacation trip.

Hahahahaha.. maybe examples could be fun, too?

Maybe one week we realize that we have an extra $300 in our weekly pay, and we are trying to decide what we are going to do with our extra $300... maybe we will buy BTC? Maybe not.. let me think about it?

Then maybe I am walking on the beach, and I see a party, and I see a Ice cream cone vender, and I see that the Ice cream vender sells his ice cream cones for $6 each. I asked him if he would give me a discount if I ordered 60 ice cream cones. He told me that he would charge me $5 for each cone if they fit certain criteria.. .. so then I agreed and I order 60 icecream cones to give to attendants at the party that was going on nearby. I used that money to buy the cones and not to buy the BTC.

Another option could be that I was in the mood for hookers and blow.. so I knew about a place that I could pay $100 for a hooker, and I could buy blow for $100, and I also figured out that I could rent a Lambo for 1 hour for $100. So I decided to spend my $300 on all three instead of buying bitcoin with it.

Surely both of those categories of spending the $300 in the above examples relates to what I could afford to lose, but instead of buying bitcoin with the money, I decided to consume all of that $300 with icecream cones in the first example and with hooker, lambo and blow in the second example.

I could afford to consume or I could afford to put it into bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer.. either way, I categorized the $300 for that particular week as an amount of money that I could afford to lose.