While your prediction is highly possible, however there are certain market factors that would determine how bitcoin price moves in the market. There are price patterns that will become a good basis in its price prediction, but there are also sudden market trends and events that will dictate its price.
In general, no one can create specific future price of bitcoin, but everyone is free to predict and speculate bitcoin price regardless of what factor will influence its price movement.
Of course and this is very natural, everyone has their own opinions and views and as you said in the first point above, the decline in BTC in the near future is 5% from 106K to 100K and this is inseparable from the interest rate cut again by the fed but there is another thing that makes the market shake quickly, namely BTC is still not a reserve by law from what I noticed from Powell's speech quote. But I'm sure BTC at a price of 120k will come early in 2025.
We are now in early 2025 and there are no signs that the price of Bitcoin will increase drastically, even though there have been some price corrections, although they are not significant, I have the same belief as you that in the near future, in early 2025, the price of Bitcoin will be able to increase drastically and a price of 120k is quite possible and I am very optimistic about that.
We have hit $108k already, and so that is not far $120k, and remember that we are still the bullish trend. This is just a test for the market, and we all know that when the market goes down, we should still be positive. Why? Because it's a perfect time for others to enter the market again and so it will push the price higher. So right now, the biggest barrier is still $100k. As we have strong support at $90k right now, nevertheless if it didn't hold then we have nothing to worry about.
We should look at the bigger picture, this is just the start of the year, and I'm seeing that there are good news that will come along. Investors are not yet done in this market, maybe they are like in the waiting game. They need something in the market to trigger another FOMO and buy in and then maybe go for another all time high as early as the first quarter.