Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 05:02:27 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 02:14:54 AM

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To be very honest, I never actually considered that there are people in BitcoinTalk who might actually be 60 years old or older. I have always made the, obviously wrong, presumption that we, or most of us, are under 40 years old. 👀

Pardon me sers, if I offended the people who are actually older than 60 and have posted their viewpoints about selling their Bitcoin. I have always preached HODL, but for our older community members, they should probably enjoy the gains of their time of HODL. You deserve it. 👍

Holy shit... how lame can you get? Of course, there are all ages here, and there are some guys coming to the forum who are still living with their parents, so they are trying to figure out the idea of actually having monthly expenses... there are also guys coming into bitcoin, yet based on age and/or health considerations, they might not be sure if they are reasonably able to invest into bitcoin since they might not be sure if they can commit for at least 4 years, which surely I would consider to be trading rather than investing, and I don't recommend it, even though sure people can do what they like, and of course, sometimes trading could be a position size kind of matter that people can still choose to do without jeopardizing their overall investment portfolio.. .. yet they still might limit their trading/gambling to very small parts of their monies.. but still not something that I recommend or wanting to discuss, especially in a thread like this that seems to also be attempting to emphasize investing rather than trading... which even you seem to ongoingly reinforce (even though you come off as quasi-retarded, presumptuous and unnecessarily argumentative sometimes) when you are emphasizing the HODL part.

Quote from: Barikui1 on Today at 05:45:43 AM

Quote from: bitzizzix on Today at 01:52:13 AM

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In my own perspective, it's not about Bitcoin cycle of a thing, though I started accumulating Bitcoin early last year when it was below 40k, and I have come to understand that the more you hold, like timeframe, the higher the chances of making more money from your holdings, so my actual plan is holding for the next ten years first, as long as their is life, then after that, I will have to do a review on Bitcoin, on how far it can still go, but if it's no where near it peak price then, their is no point thinking of selling part of my gains if it's not at the peak.

So if it hasn't gotten to that point I feel like the volatility of Bitcoin has reduced drastically due to it stability in the market and how far it has grown, selling is never an option, because it would be very obvious for everyone to see that it has gotten to it peak when the time comes, and the way gold price has less volatility, that's how Bitcoin will be when it has gotten to it peak, so till then, their is no point thinking or even entertain the idea of selling.

bitcoin is designed to pump forever, so I doubt that "we" will be anywhere close to maturity or peaking in 10-ish or 20-ish years. Sure, if bitcoin starts to get to being around 1,000x gold or if the addressable market starts to seem like it is getting absorbed into bitcoin.. then sure we might start to consider bitcoin becoming closer to a mature asset.. maybe it could happen quickly, but I am thinking that it could take 50-200 years to start to get to those kinds of feelings of maturity (or peak as you label it.. but even the term peak is a bit problematic, presumptuous and seems to be categorizing bitcoin as if it were some kind of a stock that would be limited instead of it being a protocol that has way more room for expansion and to even find use cases beyond our current imagination).

Quote from: Tungbulu on Today at 07:07:48 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 02:45:30 AM

These are not necessarily bad ideas, since surely after a whole cycle there is likely a certain amount of BTC price performance, and even if a guy mind spend a lot of time accumulating bitcoin in his first cycle, then he may well end up with a lot more options after the second cycle, so yeah, I can agree with those kinds of ideas... but still your talking about profits seems like such a trader way of framing matters, and I doubt that it is helpful or realistic to be framing matters like that.

Ok.. sure the bitcoin that we accumulated the earliest in our bitcoin journey are likely way more profitable than the bitcoin that we accumulated later in our bitcoin journey, yet even with myself, I went back and looked at some of my old records, and it sometimes becomes a bit difficult to measure how much I spent and how many bitcoin I got for that money, so then it might be more difficult to know some of the specifics as compared to having some better ideas about how many bitcoin you currently have, and whether how many you have is enough to accomplish what you might want to accomplish.. such as if you were to start to withdraw them from time to time, you might not give so many shits about how much they are in profits or not in profits, but instead you might become more concerned about do you have enough bitcoin to start to spend from your stash because I would presume that if you are spending from your BTC stash, then you are either presuming that you have enough or that you have more than enough, and you are selling portions of your stash that are more than enough.

How would you be motivated by your assessments of your profits if you are thinking about do you have enough BTC and can you start to spend from your stash? We are going to presume that you are in profits if you are starting to sell some of them, no?

I’m also very much of the opinion that focusing more on profits when investing in Bitcoin can be considered to be more of a trader perspective and this is a very flawed and unrealistic way to approach our Bitcoin holdings, I’m solidly with you on that assertion.

Yep.. it is kind of funny how some of these discussions play out, and so in the last couple of days I was arguing about how much BTC can way out perform expectations, so it is not like I have been giving too many shits about whether I am in profits or not and/or exact measurements about how well bitcoin has done relative to other investments, but still sometimes those kinds of estimations become a point of interest and even an overall bitcoin discussion point.

A couple of years ago (I think it was largely in 2021), I recall so frequently criticizing a large number of folks who seemed to have had been parroting Saylor's assertion that bitcoin has doubled every year, and so was projecting it to continue to double every year and ongoing nonsense like that. I kept proclaiming those claims to be exaggerating and even estimating my returns to be in the ballpark of 75% per year.. more or less. and that I also had expected 75% per year to not be sustainable, and so that it would likely continue to come down, yet I was not really sure about how much, but that claims of doubling every year were close to pure bullshit, even if there are actual cases of it happening in reality (in the wild).

So then yesterday I was going back through some of my numbers and trying to figure out some of the particulars, and I sometimes want to describe some of my particulars, but then sometimes I can hardly give any shits, yet sometimes when I go back and look, I can consider another way of framing the matter or another way of thinking about it, but then I also might even recognize that my memory of my own history might not be very accurate. How much did I invest, and were those investments new money or was some of that coming from sales and then buying back? So it can sometimes be unclear. I still think that the data largely supports that I mostly got into bitcoin within a year, and then continued to add for another year, but then there is some evidence that I might have continued to add a bit after that... so then if I am still adding to my position, then how can we accurately measure the CAGR?. .

I found an online [urlhttps://www.investor.gov/financial-tools-calculators/calculators/compound-interest-calculator]compound interest calculator[/url]^** and I plugged in some variations of my numbers.
Initially I was trying to see how 75% annualized worked out, and it was giving me numbers that were larger than my current holdings, so then I thought that I would rather error on the side of conservative proclamations about my "profit" levels rather than exaggerations, even though it can be a bit of a BIG SO WHAT?

**By the way, I recognize that I am not receiving interest on my bitcoin yet the compound interest calculator still can give some ideas about projecting compounding value into the future, even if interest is not being earned on the BTC

I can get 75% to work, even with putting different numbers, in there, and so I was kind of thinking that if I start my investment calculation period from late 2013, then that would slightly over 11 years, but then if I considered that the first year was a year in which I was mostly just building up the investment, so it did not matter how much it was appreciating since presumptively in the beginning of the year the numbers were too small to matter, yet by the end of the year the amount started to get to a BIG enough size to matter, which kind of was my factual case. So them when I started to presume a kind of initial investment period that was not very important, then largely I could plug in my amount for 10 years, and then use a 10-year compounding interest rate rather than a 11 year compounding interest rate, and when I did that, I found that 60% worked better than 75%, even though I could still get 75% to work.. and so currently, I am starting to consider that maybe it would be better for me to describe my first year as building up my investment, and largely once I reached my investment size, then it has been (at least so far) right in the ballpark of 60% CAGR.

In the end, does it matter if it has been 75% or 60% or how I calculate it? Perhaps not, since it seems that one of the more important considerations becomes how am I going to manage it in terms of starting to employ some kind of a meaningful sustainable withdraw, if I consider that I have reached such a stage. and if I haven't then what more do I need to do to get to such a stage .. and surely I could have some kind of a threshold about how much profits I have since if I had ONLY put in $1k then that would be different than if I put in $10k, so then I might need to consider that I need more profits, yet a lot of my concern is still not about my level of profits, but it is more about how much value do I have to work with.

Quote from: Tungbulu on Today at 07:07:48 AM

Whenever an investor begins to consider using or selling some chunks from their BTC stash, the focus should be less about the profits and more about whether they have enough to cover or actualize what they want. It’s more of a shift in the mindset from “how much can I really make” to “do I really have enough to cover my needs?”

Yep... the investment does not really need to get cashed back into dollars in any kind of quick way.. The investment is just there and can be drawn upon while it continues to grow.

I suppose if there were some kind of concern about bitcoin holding its value, then parts of the bitcoin holdings could be reallocated into better assets... playing up and down waves seems to be a kind of presumption that people believe to be necessary, which seems to be way less central to bitcoin management than what a lot of normies seem to be presuming about bitcoin management.

Quote from: Tungbulu on Today at 07:07:48 AM

So yes, if an investor decides to sell some BTC from their stash, then that should be because they feel that they’ve got enough BTC or more than enough to actually cover their needs, and so the profit aspect becomes less of a concern to the investor.

Let's hypothesize that a person with my kind of an investment timeline bought around 50 BTC between 2013 and 2017 for an average of around $1k each. So that would be around $50k invested over 4-ish years... So such person is feeling pretty good. .maybe bought some more and sold some more between 2018 and now, but largely still holds right around 50 BTC, and from time to time, he might feel like he wants to shave off some of his 50 BTC to buy some things.

Maybe this guy was having some dilemmas between 2020 to present, since in 2020, his holdings went from around being 10x to 64x and down to 30x and then back up to 69x and then back down to 16x.. so sure maybe it is better if his BTC is 100x in profits in recent times rather than 16x in late 2022, but it may well not make very much of a difference except for the sense of whether the guy calculates that the 50 BTC is enough or not. Of course, if the amount of BTC had been 100 BTC, then there is more flexibility because there is more of a cushion.. so it still seems that the quantity of BTC starts to become way more important of a consideration rather than the quantity of the profits... and sure if the guy is continuously cashing out profits along the way, he will never end up getting to a quantity of BTC in which the quantity of profits no longer matter, since he will not end up getting to a kind of overaccumulation status since he keeps shaving off profits.

Quote from: Tungbulu on Today at 07:07:48 AM

Those who are more concerned about the profit aspect are those who are actively trading their coins or who attempt to time the market, but when you’re an investor, the focus changes from that to using your Bitcoin for an actual purpose, that’s an investor’s mindset.

I think that with bitcoin over the years there has been so many ways to allow the bitcoin to work for you so long as you are not overly shaving off profits, and so once your bitcoin stash starts to get close to adequate accumulation status there might be needs to continue to be conservative with the withdrawals while the bitcoin is still growing.. but sometimes it seems people get overly anxious to cash out way too many BTC too soon, and it seems that with bitcoin there are ways to both have your cake and eat it too, as long as you don't get overly greedy with it. and largely bitcoin's investment thesis does not seem to be getting weaker.