Quote from: NewRanger on January 14, 2025, 03:40:27 PM

Quote from: STT on January 14, 2025, 01:33:29 PM

This thread might have this years most relevant topic for many months yet. We are drifting across the 50 day average, today it marks the highs of the BTC price action on the 14th Jan. 50 day and monthly average have aligned in the same place more or less and its just over head.

Intra day action, we are now back above the weekly average and its just found that area as some short term support. All this adds up to confirm BTC despite staying under the 50 day average for its longest period in months is not really weak just apathetic for the moment.

Selling pressure comes from institutions and governments selling their assets. As I recall, some time ago in July, the German government started and 4 days ago on Friday, the US government also joined in selling 69,370 BTC that had been confiscated, but the good news is that yesterday Michael Saylor also just bought 2,530 BTC so the market is starting to move again, although another decline could occur at any time.

In the end, any of us who have been in bitcoin for a while are going to likely realize that bitcoin is in a kind of pattern in which it is likely to go up no matter what various BIG or not so BIG players are doing, and sure we can attempt to account for what some of them may be doing, yet ultimately BTC's network effects continue to play out in which bitcoin is getting BIGger and BIGGER and so the various players are getting BIGger and BIGGER too, and some of them are betting in favor of bitcoin and others are betting against it and some of them are engaging in behaviors that may or may not be bluffs, so we cannot really know for sure, including that so many folks get distracted by round numbers (such as $100k), and so some of the folks think that they are going to try to play $100k as if they consider it resistance or some other way that they are wanting to play it, and surely I personally consider dumb money to be overly assigning significance to $100k,

....even though surely it is not even surprising that the BTC price ends up lingering in the ballpark of $100k and at the same time, I think that the odds are against so many folks speculating that they are going to sell some or all of their BTC at or around $100k and then buy back cheaper.. and blah blah blah.. perhaps $85k might be the starting point for conjectures about re-entry, yet so many of the dumb twats (perhaps presumptuous dumb money who hardly have any clues about bitcoin besides perceiving it as number go up or some kind of a volatile asset that goes up and down and just presuming that down is part of up, and erroring on the side of fucking around too much trying to trade and going to find out that they sold too much too soon and the better way to get rich quick is by not trying to fuck around with trading and presuming that they are going to be able to buy back cheaper blah blah blah.

Sure, maybe some of these guys will get lucky and either the BTC price will drop or they might end up being able to buy back cheaper than they sold (accounting for tax ramifications, too), yet I have my doubts that trying to trade around $100k-ish is going to end up playing out as a smart thing to do... and those ongoingly either accumulating bitcoin or just largely HODLing through this period are likely going to be the ones who end up getting the last laugh.. even though sure it could take a bit of back and forths with the price for these kinds of matters to play out.