By the way, I forgot to address your above assertion that you had largely set an accumulation target for yourself that seemed to have had a time element presumptively some kind of a accumulation quantity target..  and of course, I can relate to the idea of starting at the top (of the previous cycle), yet surely at the time we start we cannot know for sure that we are at the top, yet there are certain kind of advantages that come from accumulating on the way down.. especially once the BTC price starts to recover (which surely we also do not really know that it is recover, until it does).

I just personally found that I ended up setting various targets for myself, and some aspect of my target were met way sooner than expected, and I had set them in terms of dollar amounts invested, BTC accumulated, and general ideas of time, yet even for me (which seems that you are doing these things too), I ended up overriding my own accomplishments at various times along the way, and my overriding of my own accomplishments had to do with various aspects that related to my being better informed about myself based on mistakes made (as you mentioned), but also based on quantity of BTC accumulated, how much they cost and some ballpark ideas about what bitcoin's price might end up doing, yet never really having too much confidence beyond creating some ballpark ideas for myself of various scenarios that might end up playing out... and probably the scenario that ended up playing out was still kind of within the parameters for my thoughts of the most bullish of scenarios, yet still kind of skewed to be even better than the better of my scenarios.. .. yet still I did not really sell much of any BTC on the way up beyond a kind of preset schedule that I made that resulted in  my selling somewhere around 10% of my whole stash in 2017.. but then again, I was pretty convinced that I had reached a status of overaccumulation by late 2014-ish.. and of course, i had shared aspects of my numbers previously, and largely I also have done an outline of how my various allocation amounts (in my my investment portfolio had changed between late 2013 and mid 2022 (at the bottom of this post) - and I have not updated it since mid-2022 - I am not sure if I will)...

I was largely reacting to your  stating that you reached an earlier stated target, yet I personally found that my target continued to change, even though it continued to stay directionally consistent, mostly, but just kind of falling into tweaks along the way in regards to some of the details that continued to motivate me.. including that I thought that I accumulated enough 1) at the end of 2014, 2) then towards the middle/end of 2015, 3) then a kind of third and/or fourth times in 2016, but then even further jiggling towards the beginning of 2017 that likely caused me to end up carrying out behaviors that were mostly more aligned with internal conclusions that I had accumulated enough.. .. .. but likely each of those stages still did cause some alterations in the particulars of what I was doing.. .... I am not even trying to be deceptive because we sometimes have perceptions of what we are doing, and why we are doing it while we are in the process of doing it, but then when I look back, I also revive my own visions and perceptions of what I was doing and why I was doing it, and it is not always exactly internally consistent.. so in that regard, even my own definitions of what constitutes "overaccumulation" seems to have had been a moving target... but then not even with negative ramifications since the employment of practices that mostly held BTC and continuing to accumulate from time to time, 95% or more of my overall BTC portfolio was ongoingly compounding upon itself over and over and over... which I also have described as around 8 or nearly 9 doublings of the value of my BTC holdings since mid-2015.


The best time to buy bitcoin was yesterday, yet none of us can turn back the clock, so the next best time to invest into bitcoin is today.  Waiting is not a good strategy, and the ONLY way to prepare for up is to buy and to continue to buy, and perhaps with bitcoin, you just continue to buy for 4 years or more, and maybe even for 4-10 years or more, and then at some point down the road, you start to perceive that maybe you have enough BTC or that you have more than enough BTC.  You are not necessarily going to advantage yourself in terms of waiting to buy or waiting for dips, even though surely if you have a lump sum amounts saved up, you can consider how much to buy right away, and then you can also allocate some of that lump sum for buying on dips and/or DCA... yet even with the DCA of most of us, we tend to figure out a DCA amount that would just ongoingly come from our regular income, so maybe we still would be DCAing for 4-10 years or longer, depending on how much we might be able to front-load our investment in order to reach a BTC portfolio amount that justifies starting to slow down in our use of DCA as our main accumulation method..

and sure your individual financial and/or psychological circumstances will also help to inform you in regards to how aggressive that you are ready, willing and/or able to be in your accumulation and including  hopefully tempering yourself to an extent that you don't end up recking yourself, even if your BTC holdings might not be in profits (on paper) for the first several years of accumulating BTC.  Perhaps?  Perhaps?.. yet it seems the main thing for any newbie is to just stay focused on accumulating BTC rather than getting distracted into assessments of whether his BTC are in profits or not.. .. but hey, yeah, a lot of newbies have ended up prejudicing themselves and failing/refusing to sufficiently and/or adequately prepare themselves for UP because of their being overly preoccupied by whether they were in profits or not, which also should be able to be ameliorated by figuring out position size.. .and getting comfort with that.


I am saying that a lot of guys prematurely come to an assessment that they have reached a status of overaccumulation, so the ONLY person they are lying to is themselves because they end up devolving their status into some kind of a trading approach rather than staying focused on ongoing, persistent, consistent and perhaps even aggressive practices of accumulating BTC through ongoing buying techniques.


Of course, guys can do whatever they like, including never getting to a point in which they are able to live off their bitcoin because they are too anxious in regarding to concluding that they are rich prior to their getting rich, and so they end up screwing up their own future potentials and also screwing up the compounding value of their bitcoin and frequently ending up selling too many BTC too soon.  Yes, they are 100% free to do whatever they like and they are 100% responsible for whatever actions that they choose to take, including if they end up choosing to employ dumb and short-sighted techniques that may well rise to the level of trading rather than investing.. 


Some times guys have regrets and other times they rationalize away their behaviors to proclaim that they still made 2-5x profits, when they could have had made 40x to 100x profits or more and then just spread out their selling over their lifetime rather than getting overly anxious and then selling too many BTC too soon.. and/or failing refuse to sufficiently/adequately prepare for more up by slowing down in their buying of BTC before they have gotten even close to a fact-based status of overaccumulation... surely one of the negative consequences of selling too many coins too early is also presuming an ability to buy them back cheaper and then also getting out of a focused groove that more productively continues to focus on accumulating bitcoin through buying rather than fucking around trying to trade or believing that selling is a realistic way to accumulate more BTC.


Many of us are learning, so I am not going to presume guys are lying.. and surely part of the reason that we discuss some of these matters in terms of hypotheticals is so that we don't necessarily need to know actual details of other guys, so we might use examples of some kind of a guy that might be largely made up but trying to help us to sort through some dilemmas that real guys might have in terms of their accumulation questions or even if they might be considering whether they might want to graduate into more of a maintenance status rather than focusing so much on BTC accumulation.  These are not easy questions, and many times we are not going to know the details of the finances and/or psychology of any guy, so he has to figure out some of the details for himself, including potentially just working through some of his own particular 9 factors, and surely I am not proclaiming that it is even easy for guys to figure out their own 9 factors, yet if they are trying to develop reasonable and realistic practices for themselves based on their own particulars, then it does seem to help for guys to be studying their own factors.. and the BTC price and their view of the BTC price as compared with other places that they can put their money is ONLY one of the 9 factors.. which also tells us that the 9 factors can be somewhat moving factors that need to be reassessed based on changed circumstances, from time to time.


Excessive could be a good or a bad thing depending upon how we are talking about it.  So one thing is if someone is buying within their discretionary income, and so they could be aggressive within the boundaries of their discretionary income, but it could become problematic if they go beyond their discretionary income.  Another problem could be that they miscalculate, and then put themselves into a pickle. 

The excessive in regards to reaching a status of overaccumulation may well largely relate to figuring out how many BTC might be enough to support a person in their lifestyle, but if they are not sure about whether they are accurate in their calculations regarding how many BTC that they need, they might feel better to get to a status in which they have accumulated more than they need, perhaps by 10% or 20% or 50% or even 100%, yet it could also be problematic to set standards way beyond what is needed, and perhaps some folks could be ready to live off of their BTC, but then they end up adding 5-10 or more years to their building of BTC, which might end up just causing them to have to work way longer then they would have had needed to work.. and yeah, each person has to make sure that he does NOT screw up his calculations by too wide of a margin in either direction... and ultimately each person if responsible to figure out his details, too.


I personally find the 200-WMA to be a much better way of valuating my BTC holdings, and yeah the 200-WMA in bitcoin has always gone up.. at least so far.  You can plug in BTC quantities, dates, anticipated withdrawal amounts and even consider historical amounts to compare the 200-WMA to spot price at this site.


I personally consider having more as a kind of cushion rather than being motivated to get more profits, since for me, it hardly seems to make sense that a guy might be building up his BTC holdings for 4-10 years or longer and then plan to cash out his BTC rather than just figuring out how to engage in some kind of sustainable withdrawal practices that might be motivated by BTC price moves and/or time factors.


Sure guys have various perspectives about what to do, and likely some perspectives are better than other perspectives, and in the end guys have to figure out the extent to which they might have assets that are ONLY in bitcoin and cash or if they might have other assets.  I would imagine that guys would build up to having more than just bitcoin and cash, even if they might have started building their investment portfolio with ONLY bitcoin and cash, yet as they build their BTC holdings and their cash, they may well also establish some other ways of holding value too  such as properties, equities, bonds, commodities, cash equivalents.. and some guys might be distracted into shitcoins, even though getting into shitcoins may well be better to keep to a minimum.. but hey guys do all kinds of dumb shit that might not end up working out very well if they don't set some meaningful limits on those kinds of inferior assets/currencies.


For sure the application of your actual numbers will make more sense once you are getting into a range of reaching your numbers and then you might be deciding the extent that you might feel better to have some extra as a cushion or perhaps you will have confidence in your own status and less need for a cushion. 

Surely, we tend to focus on our bitcoin stash, yet sometimes folks will have other investments that might generate income too, like a retirement or pension fund, and sure maybe those retirement pension funds might kick in at a later age, yet they still could be a factor for guys who might choose to discontinue with his work at a date that is earlier than his retirement and/or pension funds might kick in (to the extent that he has those kinds of funds).