Sure it is possible that any of us might misunderstand each other, so we might have to repeat or clarify, and sometimes the context can be misunderstood - especially since many times there can be a lot of nuance in regards to what might be preferred practices, and even the discretion that each of us has in terms of figuring out our own ways to balance what we might do or how we might deal with volatility in the bitcoin price.

For sure, there can be some guys who perceive their BTC holdings to be in profits early on, so yeah, they can sometimes have internal dilemmas in regards to what to do, and even  if they don't end up selling parts of their BTC stash on the way up, they might also slow down in their BTC accumulation and even lose some of their focus since BTC prices might have had gone up several times since they started their investments into BTC, so even in our most recent cycle, there could have had been some guys who started accumulating bitcoin towards the bottom of the BTC price in November 2022 and even accumulating for a whole year until the end of 2023 may well have had left them with decent amounts of their BTC stash with prices under $30k, so then now they are feeling parts of their stash to be in 3x profits, and even if they don't sell any BTC, they might end up slowing down in their accumulation of BTC, even though they might well not have even very close to the amount of BTC that they might need to get before they might start to consider that they have a decent enough stash size, so yeah, it can feel difficult to be continuing to accumulate BTC 3x higher than the prices of the earlier bought portions of the BTC stash.


I am not saying that it is easy for guys to stay focused, and surely there can be some guys with more difficult situations in terms of their thinking that they might want to wait for dips rather than continuing to buy, even though it may well be better for them to just continue to buy.. or alternatively, some guys who had been buying $100 every week might decide to only buy $50 every week and to save the other $50 for buying dips, and none of us can really say which is the correct decision yet anyone holding back money to buy on dips may well need to at least understand that there are trade offs when those kinds of choices are made, and none of us can really know if holding back will end up helping or hurting in the whole scheme of things, including a need that many earlier staged guys likely have to stay focused on just continuing to buy.. ... but still their individual circumstances also might affect whether and if so how they might choose to divide their funds.  I am not saying any of this is easy...and even some newbies are cheering that the BTC price is going up, which also is strange to me, since it is surely going to end up costing newbies way more for their coins if they had not already accumulated a lot, and many of us realize that it can take much longer than a whole bitcoin cycle to really get to a point in which normie newbies are starting to feel that they have started to accumulate a decent amount of BTC.


I was reading from what you wrote.


Personally, I don't recommend that guys sell with intentions of buying back cheaper, even if they have reached an overaccumulation status.  Personally I tend to recommend that when guys decide how much BTC they are going to sell, then they make their decision of quantity based on an expectation that they won't be able to buy back cheaper (I think that even my discussion on buy back techniques is not selling with any intention to buy back cheaper, but there is a kind of taking advantage of price drops if they happen to occur, but not selling with  intentions of buying back cheaper)... so then that would motivate selling smaller amounts, but sure frequently the BTC price ends up dipping at some point, so the proceeds from the sales can end up being used to buy back, yet I am never suggesting that even experienced (or over-accumulated BTC holders to engage in a practice of selling in order to buy back cheaper).. yet surely guys can do what they like.. .. so if you are assuming guys who reached an overaccumulation status sell to buy back cheaper, then you are likely talking about the traders within that group, and it may or may not work out for guys who go down that trading and/or gambling path.

I doubt that it is even necessary to discuss trading in this thread or that there is any need for trading in order to accumulate bitcoin, whether a guy has or has not reached such overaccumulation status, and even if you have not reached such status, it seems a bit presumptuous to be suggesting that others who reach overaccumulation status are necessarily going to end up trading/gambling with the over accumulated portion of their BTC stash.


Yeah.. you seem to be just guessing, and sure several times earlier, I had used the example of a guy who might consider 21 BTC to be enough, and if he has 35 BTC, then he would have 14 BTC extra.. So sure it is possible that he could sell some of those extra BTC with a hope of buying them back cheaper, or maybe he uses the extra to invest into something else.. He has flexibility with the extra BTC so it seems presumptive to speculate that he would want to sell some of them with an expectation of buying them back cheaper.. even if he might ONLY put  1 or 2 BTC in such category, but yeah, there are guys with different personalities and the fact that they have assessed that they have 14 extra BTC might  not even cause them any kind of urgent consideration that they need to make more money with them or that there is any urgent need to sell some of them, just because they have reached a status in which they assess themselves as having extra BTC.


I think that many of us come up with some ideas about where we might consider tops and bottoms for any cycle (or even local bottoms and tops), and even some of my BTC management tools try to describe some ways to take advantage of tops and bottoms to the extent that there might be some desires to do so..

Within the description of my sustainable withdrawal tool, I wrote about advance withdrawal, and surely selling extra are optional kinds of considerations:
>>>>>>>>"Advanced Withdrawal (No. Months): This output is calculated based on if the BTC spot price is higher than the 200 WMA. Accordingly:

A. if the BTC spot price is between 33% and 66% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + an additional month.
B. if the BTC spot price is between 66% and 100% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 3 additional months.
C. if the BTC spot price is between 100% and 200% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 5 additional months.
D. if the BTC spot price is between 200% and 400% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 11 additional months.
E. if the BTC spot price is between 400% and 650% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 23 additional months.
F. if the BTC spot price is between 650% and 900% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 35 additional months.
G. if the BTC spot price is between 900% and 1,400% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 47 additional months.
H. if the BTC spot price is greater than 1,400% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 59 additional months."<<<<<<<<


Maybe I find some difficulties with the ideas of taking profits, even though surely guys frame what they are doing as taking profits... but yeah the overall point of not assuming an ability to buy back seems to be something that might somewhat agree upon.  Perhaps?


There is likely no need for us to quibble over discretionary deviations, and in the end, guys can do what they like in regards to how they might consider it to their advantage to start to sell portions of their BTC on the way up once they have assessed themselves to have had reached overaccumuation status.  We might not differ too much in what we are saying, so it could well be that some of what we are saying ends up being semantical rather than substantive arguments.


It can be difficult to describe why we might be in bitcoin, and why we might perceive bitcoin to be a place to put our value since it seems to have some decently good odds of outperforming all other assets (and is widely available to everyone in the whole world, without needs of being an insider or an accredited investor or some other person who gets access to the good deals first).  We are likely best off to  continue to acknowledge that profits in bitcoin are not guaranteed, and we have to make sure that we invest in a way to acknowledge that profits are not guaranteed, while at the same time, many of us likely realize that bitcoin has decently good potential to provide returns that we are not going to be able to get anywhere else.. ..

and there is also some advantage that regular people are able to front run a lot of governments, financial institutions and other rich players who usually are able to get the deals first.. so since individuals are more flexible, there are possibilities for little guys to get into bitcoin before a lot of the traditionally advantaged players who usually get in first and then after they are in, then they can dump on the normal little guy.  This time around many little guys are getting in first.. . and now bigger players are coming into bitcoin in order to pump our bags (even though they don't want to and they are kicking and screaming the whole time, but they don't have a choice since a lot of little guys were here first.  Kind of funny in some sense.

Many of us still have to figure out how to continue to accumulate BTC and some others have to figure out how to NOT be selling too many of our BTC too soon...also don't get reckt out of your BTC either.. and try to hold at least 90% in self-custody rather than with third parties who might lock you out of your BTC.


Of course, many folks end up selling way too much of their BTC stash too soon, yet there are a lot of scenarios in which we might imagine someone buying way more than 5 BTC in 2011.. and even if the guy bought 1,000 BTC at $5 each in the beginning of 2012, there could still be strategic amounts of selling of the BTC stash every single year, even 10% of the holdings sold every year, and still end up with 271 BTC today..so the person would still be in quite good shape, even if he had sold 10% of his stash every year.

There is nothing wrong with selling BTC every year, especially once we have a decent-sized BTC stash, and surely in 2012, 1000 BTC with only a $5k investment might not have seemed like enough in order to start selling, yet by the beginning of 2013 or even the end of 2013, there might have been more reason to feel like shaving off 10% of the investment, and perhaps the guys who got into trouble seem to be the ones who sold too many too soon.. and so they might not have been able to limit themselves to selling only 10% per year... and even 10 % per year does not seem to be too much too soon, yet any of us who might be concerned about selling 10% per year, then we could likely sell 4% to 6% per year and then see how that goes in order to preserve more of the BTC stash and then see if you might want to up the sale amounts later down the road.