Quote from: promise444c5 on January 18, 2025, 08:24:18 PM

Bare with me as I will be editing the quote from a mobile device

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 17, 2025, 10:13:34 PM

I doubt that any of the folks investing into bitcoin are talking about selling bitcoin as a way to accumulate bitcoin, as you seem to be implying to be a way to deal with our BTC stash and implying that profit taking is a short-to-medium term motive.

In other words, you seem to be saying some misleading kinds of things to be elevating profit taking ideas in the mixed of your implications of BTC portfolio management.

Well,maybe that’s how you view it but I was just trying to reply to this quote from muba20
“ The goal of every investor is to make profit, but if someone misses a big opportunity in the hope of a small profit, he will regret it later.”
Okay that’s the quote and this was what I meant..
So me replying “ For anyone starting out with Bitcoin investment what really matters is accumulating as much as possible before the next cycles , anything pertaining taking profit should be disregarded... “
is just relating the Statement from Muba20 as an investor starting out is investment journey but thinking about taking profit by selling his coins because he already made some little profit the short time he started his investment journey..and me addding “next cycles” doesn’t mean I’m saying an investor can start taking profit in just a single cyle or even two ( maybe I shouldn’t have added that anyways as most people visiting the thred might just be starting out”
I added
“ investing in Bitcoin should be taken for long term so even after reaching a status of having enough stashed up already to start taking profit, investor shouldn't just sell his whole holdings at once.”
Here what I’m simply trying to emphasize on is just trying to discourage every form of selling all holdings even when an investor has made enough to start taking profit ,from the quote of Muba20
“ but if someone misses a big opportunity in the hope of a small profit, he will regret it later.” — which is actually pointing to investor selling all their holdings for a little profit just as I’ve said earlier
and just like I said maybe I shouldn’t have added it

, I was so lazy to qute it word for word because I’m on mobile then aswell.

Sure it is possible that any of us might misunderstand each other, so we might have to repeat or clarify, and sometimes the context can be misunderstood - especially since many times there can be a lot of nuance in regards to what might be preferred practices, and even the discretion that each of us has in terms of figuring out our own ways to balance what we might do or how we might deal with volatility in the bitcoin price.

For sure, there can be some guys who perceive their BTC holdings to be in profits early on, so yeah, they can sometimes have internal dilemmas in regards to what to do, and even if they don't end up selling parts of their BTC stash on the way up, they might also slow down in their BTC accumulation and even lose some of their focus since BTC prices might have had gone up several times since they started their investments into BTC, so even in our most recent cycle, there could have had been some guys who started accumulating bitcoin towards the bottom of the BTC price in November 2022 and even accumulating for a whole year until the end of 2023 may well have had left them with decent amounts of their BTC stash with prices under $30k, so then now they are feeling parts of their stash to be in 3x profits, and even if they don't sell any BTC, they might end up slowing down in their accumulation of BTC, even though they might well not have even very close to the amount of BTC that they might need to get before they might start to consider that they have a decent enough stash size, so yeah, it can feel difficult to be continuing to accumulate BTC 3x higher than the prices of the earlier bought portions of the BTC stash.

Quote from: promise444c5 on January 18, 2025, 08:24:18 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 17, 2025, 10:13:34 PM

Quote from: promise444c5 on January 17, 2025, 08:37:43 PM

The supply of Bitcoin keeps reducing over time and if everything is in place then the price should still go high due to scarcity( although other factors still majorly influence the price) so selling all holdings at once will be dumb...for an investor to stay in the game while he takes profit , he just need to sell small fractions out of his holding as regarding to how big his accumulation has become over time .

I doubt that you are presenting this idea very well, especially since you seem to be suggesting that we should be trying to play BTC price waves with parts of our BTC stash, which is difficult to be suggesting to be practical for anyone with less than a whole cycle accumulating bitcoin absent some special circumstances, even with your own timeline, going by your registration date, you are ONLY about a year and a half into bitcoin, and so you are suggesting that you have reached some kind of an overaccumulation status in such a short period of time, and you are suggesting that other similarly situated guys might be in a similar place? I have my doubts that even your plan is a good one, absent a lot of front loading of your investment into bitcoin, and even then, you are not even characterizing your own situation in such a way, but instead seeming to overly weigh the practicality and the ability of guys to be trying to play anticipated BTC price waves without making sure that they have clearly and unambiguously reached long term (rather than some temporary perception) of actual overaccumualtion.

Well here I had to include my post aswell…
Like I said maybe I shouldn’t have mentioned anything about taking profit but I already did anyways Tongue

So here I’m only insinuating about even when an investor has reached a stage of already having a lot stashed to start taking profit after a long term of accumulation ,from
My quote

Quote

investing in Bitcoin should be taken for long term so even after reaching a status of having enough stashed up already to start taking profit, investor shouldn't just sell his whole holdings at once.

, not me , not even thinking of any form of taking profits soon I still have a long way to go in my accumulation journey.. I only started accumulating after joining the thread as a member then

and the reason I’m always checking the thread from time to time

I am not saying that it is easy for guys to stay focused, and surely there can be some guys with more difficult situations in terms of their thinking that they might want to wait for dips rather than continuing to buy, even though it may well be better for them to just continue to buy.. or alternatively, some guys who had been buying $100 every week might decide to only buy $50 every week and to save the other $50 for buying dips, and none of us can really say which is the correct decision yet anyone holding back money to buy on dips may well need to at least understand that there are trade offs when those kinds of choices are made, and none of us can really know if holding back will end up helping or hurting in the whole scheme of things, including a need that many earlier staged guys likely have to stay focused on just continuing to buy.. ... but still their individual circumstances also might affect whether and if so how they might choose to divide their funds. I am not saying any of this is easy...and even some newbies are cheering that the BTC price is going up, which also is strange to me, since it is surely going to end up costing newbies way more for their coins if they had not already accumulated a lot, and many of us realize that it can take much longer than a whole bitcoin cycle to really get to a point in which normie newbies are starting to feel that they have started to accumulate a decent amount of BTC.

Quote from: promise444c5 on January 18, 2025, 08:24:18 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 17, 2025, 10:13:34 PM

Quote from: promise444c5 on January 17, 2025, 08:37:43 PM

This doesn't stop buying but most investors at such stage will just buy dips if they wish to , could even be out of profit made since they will be buying cheaper..

Of course, you are recommending buy higher and sell back cheaper, which is also known as trading, even though you are proclaiming that you are investing. Do you even understand what you are saying? Yes.. you seem to be presuming that smart trading is a form of investing, and sure you are free to employ those kinds of tactics with part of your BTC holdings, yet your trying to suggest that everyone should be doing this is quite presumptive, especially since you seem to be just dreaming that you can figure out how to time your own attempts to fuck around with figuring out where the tops and bottoms are going to be....and during this time that you are fucking around with trading, you think that you will just continue to buy BTC at the same time, so why the fuck would you be just spinning your wheels by selling out of one hand and buying back with the other, and why not just stay focused on buying only rather than presuming that you are smarter than everyone else and you can figure out how to play various inevitable BTC price waves?

No I’m not recommending “sell high and buy cheap”…

I was reading from what you wrote.

Quote from: promise444c5 on January 18, 2025, 08:24:18 PM

I’m still on the point of investor accumulated enough already, I’m not there and I’ve not been there but I believe most of them will just utilize dips to buy more(maybe I’m wrong about it)

Personally, I don't recommend that guys sell with intentions of buying back cheaper, even if they have reached an overaccumulation status. Personally I tend to recommend that when guys decide how much BTC they are going to sell, then they make their decision of quantity based on an expectation that they won't be able to buy back cheaper (I think that even my discussion on buy back techniques is not selling with any intention to buy back cheaper, but there is a kind of taking advantage of price drops if they happen to occur, but not selling with intentions of buying back cheaper)... so then that would motivate selling smaller amounts, but sure frequently the BTC price ends up dipping at some point, so the proceeds from the sales can end up being used to buy back, yet I am never suggesting that even experienced (or over-accumulated BTC holders to engage in a practice of selling in order to buy back cheaper).. yet surely guys can do what they like.. .. so if you are assuming guys who reached an overaccumulation status sell to buy back cheaper, then you are likely talking about the traders within that group, and it may or may not work out for guys who go down that trading and/or gambling path.

I doubt that it is even necessary to discuss trading in this thread or that there is any need for trading in order to accumulate bitcoin, whether a guy has or has not reached such overaccumulation status, and even if you have not reached such status, it seems a bit presumptuous to be suggesting that others who reach overaccumulation status are necessarily going to end up trading/gambling with the over accumulated portion of their BTC stash.

Quote from: promise444c5 on January 18, 2025, 08:24:18 PM

and when I said “could even be out of their profit “ I wasn’t directly saying they take profit to buy to buy more bitcoins but you know an investor at such stage could take a small profit when they needed to (maybe) and then let’s say there was a dip there after … this dosent necessarily mean they use their profit to buy all the time( what do i kno)

Yeah.. you seem to be just guessing, and sure several times earlier, I had used the example of a guy who might consider 21 BTC to be enough, and if he has 35 BTC, then he would have 14 BTC extra.. So sure it is possible that he could sell some of those extra BTC with a hope of buying them back cheaper, or maybe he uses the extra to invest into something else.. He has flexibility with the extra BTC so it seems presumptive to speculate that he would want to sell some of them with an expectation of buying them back cheaper.. even if he might ONLY put 1 or 2 BTC in such category, but yeah, there are guys with different personalities and the fact that they have assessed that they have 14 extra BTC might not even cause them any kind of urgent consideration that they need to make more money with them or that there is any urgent need to sell some of them, just because they have reached a status in which they assess themselves as having extra BTC.

Quote from: promise444c5 on January 18, 2025, 08:24:18 PM

[off] Hence, i might try to identify tops and bottom just because I’m interested in reading Bitcoin charts and to have something to always contribute and not that I’m trading or trying to trade it..

I think that many of us come up with some ideas about where we might consider tops and bottoms for any cycle (or even local bottoms and tops), and even some of my BTC management tools try to describe some ways to take advantage of tops and bottoms to the extent that there might be some desires to do so..

Within the description of my sustainable withdrawal tool, I wrote about advance withdrawal, and surely selling extra are optional kinds of considerations:
>>>>>>>>"Advanced Withdrawal (No. Months): This output is calculated based on if the BTC spot price is higher than the 200 WMA. Accordingly:

A. if the BTC spot price is between 33% and 66% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + an additional month.
B. if the BTC spot price is between 66% and 100% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 3 additional months.
C. if the BTC spot price is between 100% and 200% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 5 additional months.
D. if the BTC spot price is between 200% and 400% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 11 additional months.
E. if the BTC spot price is between 400% and 650% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 23 additional months.
F. if the BTC spot price is between 650% and 900% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 35 additional months.
G. if the BTC spot price is between 900% and 1,400% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 47 additional months.
H. if the BTC spot price is greater than 1,400% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 59 additional months."<<<<<<<<

Quote from: promise444c5 on January 18, 2025, 08:24:18 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 17, 2025, 10:13:34 PM

Quote from: promise444c5 on January 17, 2025, 08:37:43 PM

The moment an investor opt-out at once , it might be very hard to buy back and this is why selling holdings high to buy back low strategy is not a good strategy( it fails).. investor might end up buying higher again thus loosing some funds .

Now, you are recommending not selling any or taking profits, but the early part of your post seems to be suggesting to take profits with part of your BTC holdings, but now you are suggesting that you are being smarter because you are ONLY planning to be selling part of your BTC holdings and not all of your BTC holdings? Your post is confusing and seems to be internally contradicting in terms of your seeming to talk out of both sides of your mouth on this topic of how you seem to be planning your playing of our anticipated upcoming BTC price waves in the coming year or two by selling part of your BTC and not large parts of it, and you are suggesting that you are going to play the upcoming price wave in a smart way because you are not selling large parts of your BTC, just some of it.. which comes off as a wee bit ridiculous from my reading of your confusing and internally contradicting post.

You Misunderstood who I was directing the statement to right earlier from my post, the whole context was just revolving around someone who has already accumulated enough over a long period of time and someone who’s just starting out …
Although, my statement is a little be vague but all I mean was
“ The moment an investor opt-out at once , it might be very hard to buy back” — an investor who already accumulated enough BTC trying to take some profit but thinking about selling everything at once, if eventually he tries to buy back then it may be very hard unlike just taking small profit with your BTC holdings still intact.

Maybe I find some difficulties with the ideas of taking profits, even though surely guys frame what they are doing as taking profits... but yeah the overall point of not assuming an ability to buy back seems to be something that might somewhat agree upon. Perhaps?

Quote from: promise444c5 on January 18, 2025, 08:24:18 PM

Then relating it to an investor trying to sell high and buy back low
“ this is why selling holdings high to buy back low strategy is not a good strategy( it fails).. investor might end up buying higher again thus loosing some funds .”— here I’m now generalizing it’s that it not a good strategy either for an investor who’s has accumulated enough or someone who’s just starting his investment journey ..

This was all I was trying to point out but I’m open for corrections..

There is likely no need for us to quibble over discretionary deviations, and in the end, guys can do what they like in regards to how they might consider it to their advantage to start to sell portions of their BTC on the way up once they have assessed themselves to have had reached overaccumuation status. We might not differ too much in what we are saying, so it could well be that some of what we are saying ends up being semantical rather than substantive arguments.

Quote from: Churchillvv on January 18, 2025, 08:28:54 PM

Quote from: Futurexxx on January 18, 2025, 01:44:41 PM

You have just said my mind here, I think I have heard about this before that the extent of how successful you are going to be in the future determine the stash of Bitcoin in your possession,

You have to be very specific with your words or be more clear when passing information as it might be misleading when consumed.

Life is too complex to be centered around bitcoin only, one can be financially free with bitcoin which is one of the reason Satoshi created it in the first place but bitcoin does not guarantee success life. bitcoin is safer investment than every other assets that it could be compared to because it guarantees return in a long term but perhaps it's very much inconvenient to say that the percentage of your bitcoin position will determine the your success in your life.

Quote

The as for Bitcoin guaranteeing good life? No, nothing is guaranteed in this life, something can happen very fast that can change the cause of so many things, we that are investing in it are doing so because we believe in it due to it track record and the it potential it has.

Investment in bitcoin in my opinion does not only lay in its potentials of return but it also a fact that the bitcoin community believes in bitcoin for its original nature of being a currency with the real definition of money rather than just a tool for profit.

It can be difficult to describe why we might be in bitcoin, and why we might perceive bitcoin to be a place to put our value since it seems to have some decently good odds of outperforming all other assets (and is widely available to everyone in the whole world, without needs of being an insider or an accredited investor or some other person who gets access to the good deals first). We are likely best off to continue to acknowledge that profits in bitcoin are not guaranteed, and we have to make sure that we invest in a way to acknowledge that profits are not guaranteed, while at the same time, many of us likely realize that bitcoin has decently good potential to provide returns that we are not going to be able to get anywhere else.. ..

and there is also some advantage that regular people are able to front run a lot of governments, financial institutions and other rich players who usually are able to get the deals first.. so since individuals are more flexible, there are possibilities for little guys to get into bitcoin before a lot of the traditionally advantaged players who usually get in first and then after they are in, then they can dump on the normal little guy. This time around many little guys are getting in first.. . and now bigger players are coming into bitcoin in order to pump our bags (even though they don't want to and they are kicking and screaming the whole time, but they don't have a choice since a lot of little guys were here first. Kind of funny in some sense.

Many of us still have to figure out how to continue to accumulate BTC and some others have to figure out how to NOT be selling too many of our BTC too soon...also don't get reckt out of your BTC either.. and try to hold at least 90% in self-custody rather than with third parties who might lock you out of your BTC.

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Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 17, 2025, 10:13:34 PM

Hopefully many of us are wanting to invest into bitcoin in order to have more options down the road in terms of 4-10 years or more, yet surely there are folks who will consider bitcoin as a trade on shorter timelines, and none of us can really persuade others in terms of the goals that they might want to have in regards to both why they got into bitcoin and the extent to which they might be striving to invest into bitcoin rather than merely trading it.

Yes, and for my personal experience, I never heard of DCA before, specially in the beginning of my "career" here back in 2017, all I heard by invest on it in the long term, and then the obvious be a trader so that you can earn from this market. But later on, I learn how to invest, I read others suggesting to do DCA to help me out, and then as I go along, there is a learning curve for me, choosing my options (e.g. weekly or monthly fixed amount), and then you will hear some saying to time the market. But with DCA you don't need that, but instead just be consistent and then buying more when the price goes down.

I have similar experience with you, the only difference is that you started way earlier than me and while you did more of trading at your earlier years, I did a little of that but I wasted my money investing in shitcoins, actions I still regret till date. My only consolation is the fact that I learnt the DCA method from this forum and started applying it, since then I have experiencing exponential growth in my Bitcoin portfolio. Indeed, the DCA method is organized and systematic and have this way of making the investor think more of buying than selling. The moment you consciously start applying the DCA method, you will be filled with only the thought of buying more and selling will never be appealing to you. I will not be surprised that the increased number of people owning Bitcoin now is somehow related to the popularity of the DCA method, although you should not take my word for it because it is just my reasonable assumption.

Everyone feels good when BTC prices are at all time highs, so part of the reason that I frequently suggest getting through a whole cycle or two, because sometimes even the best of practices may end up having extended periods of being in the negative (on paper), and so some guys might get discouraged by their BTC being in the negative, and sometimes the period of being in the negative could end up lasting a couple of years or longer...of course personal details regarding timing (when he got in) can also make differences, too.

To invest in Bitcoin, you have to be strategic, that is, you have to adopt some strategies. The investor has to be patient and a long-term perspective is very important. And long-term investment can usually be done by waiting for a few cycles. Because the price of Bitcoin basically fluctuates in a big cycle. One cycle basically lasts for four years. Because halving occurs here every four years.

Traders feel very happy when their business makes a profit, this is basically a very natural thing, just like investors in Bitcoin are very happy when the price increases. But when the price decreases, many investors break down and lose their confidence. For this reason, it is very important to learn from the entire cycle. The price of BTC is unstable. It is normal that it can decrease, but it does not mean that it will continue to decrease for several cycles. It will definitely increase after passing one or two cycles. The price of Bitcoin was very low one or two cycles ago in 2024. Therefore, the investor must look back at two or four cycles and strengthen his mind when the price decreases.

Inasmuch as investment is concern time and patience are very crucial factors to be considered and they are the major things that drive every investment. Now come to think of what will be the profit of someone that purchased five bitcoins in 2011 when the price was about $1.00 and patiently hold the five Bitcoin till now that the price is about $100000 per Bitcoin.
The reason for investment is to make profit and this is a factor of time, patience and knowing the best strategies that will sustain the investme for longer time in order to bring a reasonable return in the future, so no investor will be happy when the value of his investment is going down instead of appreciating but if the investor critically learn the entire cycle of the system it enable the investor to have more courage and patient, knowing that the price of Bitcoin is unstable and as such will appreciate in the near future.

Of course, many folks end up selling way too much of their BTC stash too soon, yet there are a lot of scenarios in which we might imagine someone buying way more than 5 BTC in 2011.. and even if the guy bought 1,000 BTC at $5 each in the beginning of 2012, there could still be strategic amounts of selling of the BTC stash every single year, even 10% of the holdings sold every year, and still end up with 271 BTC today..so the person would still be in quite good shape, even if he had sold 10% of his stash every year.

There is nothing wrong with selling BTC every year, especially once we have a decent-sized BTC stash, and surely in 2012, 1000 BTC with only a $5k investment might not have seemed like enough in order to start selling, yet by the beginning of 2013 or even the end of 2013, there might have been more reason to feel like shaving off 10% of the investment, and perhaps the guys who got into trouble seem to be the ones who sold too many too soon.. and so they might not have been able to limit themselves to selling only 10% per year... and even 10 % per year does not seem to be too much too soon, yet any of us who might be concerned about selling 10% per year, then we could likely sell 4% to 6% per year and then see how that goes in order to preserve more of the BTC stash and then see if you might want to up the sale amounts later down the road.