Quote from: philipma1957 on January 20, 2025, 11:20:52 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 20, 2025, 09:54:41 PM

[edited out]

I believe there is no 5 year date to date that btc is a loser.

the closest may be dec 2017 peak of 19k to fall of 2022 and after checking there are a few days from dec 2022 to jan 23 where the 5 year rule is a loser

Sure, we can account for bitcoin's price history, yet we still would expect that bitcoin is guaranteed to go up in 5 years.

Don't get me wrong, in my earlier example that I gave of the mid-30s guy with $50k in his savings (in fiat), I would be recommending that the guy (if it were me) is going to need to start buying bitcoin right away with at least 1/3 of the lump sum that he has, even if he might take a few weeks to buy that initial amount of 1/3 of his cash which would be $16,667, and I also think that the guy should convert his $100 per week DCAing into bitcoin rather than what he had been doing into some fiat-based savings, even if he is getting 3% to 5% per yearn in that fiat savings account.

The other 2/3 of his lump sum he could probably combine DCA and buying on dips with that, and yeah of course, there are risks with any deferred strategy, so it might not be exactly obvious how to structure those other two components in order to reallocate the remaining $33,333 into bitcoin, and over how much time and/or to have money available for what level of dips that may or may not end up happening... These are not necessarily easy questions for anyone in regards to the specific commitment since guys likely have a dilemma between just doing it and not having to think about it and also hoping to get the best deal that they are able to get, and so there also can be some value in just committing to the plan even if there is no real way to idealize such plan since almost no matter what there are going to be trade offs since we cannot really know in the short term if the BTC price is going to go up or down...even though we seem to still be in a bull market so there should be a certain extra probability for UP, rather than down.

Quote from: Dump3er on January 20, 2025, 11:27:53 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 20, 2025, 11:15:58 PM

Bitcoin is not guaranteed to go up, so newbie no coiners and/or already existing low coiners still have to figure out their allocation size into bitcoin.. in the case that they already concluded that they are going to start to take a bitcoin position, they still have to figure out their accumulation approach and their position size in order to account for both upside and downside scenarios.

Most of the time there are those people who have been saying that it is too late to buy bitcoin for many years now. Too late at 1k, too late at 10k and so on and so forth.

You actually some guys here in the forum have been saying for a long time that bitcoin won't do this and that in price terms.

But I think some fundamental questions help whether bitcoin has a bright future and one of those is whether one believes that the whole world will break out in harmony and crack down on it once for all. Even then it would likely continue to exist, but at least it couldn't be used anywhere. But since this cooperation across is never going to be the case on a global scale, bitcoin probably has far more upside potential than downside potential.

Politicians and their position on bitcoin has changed a lot too. It's not less people in charge who are talking well about bitcoin, but more and more. And those who think that the Trumpcoin is now the right deal for them, well, they better never touch bitcoin as I think most of them haven't understood till to this date why the bitcoin network preserves far more value than the other 20,000 shitcoins combined. (I don't honestly know how many coins there are...) I think that alone should give everyone a glimpse of how bitcoin is set up for the future with some other factors combined.

It is quite likely that many of us who have been studying bitcoin realize that the question in regards to investing into bitcoin should not be whether to invest in bitcoin, but instead, what would be an appropriate way of allocating into bitcoin, and how much should I allocate into bitcoin based on my own personal circumstances.