Quote from: ginsan on January 24, 2025, 09:21:49 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 23, 2025, 10:55:42 PM

For sure, there may well be hardly any advantage to DCA over extended periods of time, if a guy has a large lump sum amount in his possession, even though there may be some preference to invest it in gradual ways, such as $1,923 per week for 26 weeks, and even that might be a questionable tactic if it is unclear if the BTC price might be able to stay down for the next 26 weeks. I doubt that plugging DCA into any situation is really going to resolve the issue, especially if there are questions about how to deal with a bunch of cash that is right in our bank right now. If the scenario was different, such as having the $50k coming to us over an extended period, then we may want to invest all of the amount of the $50k as it comes in.. even though surely many of us would also need to attempt to account for other income and/or expenses that we have every month, so if the $50k is extra money coming in there might not necessarily be any value to spread out the investment into bitcoin, except maybe over a few weeks in the case of $10k coming in at one time or some kind of a situation like that.

After I thought more carefully and adjusted to your opinion, I found a more appropriate way to buy bitcoin if I have extra money or ready money of 50k dollars with a single purchase is better.

I am not even suggesting that there is any right answer, and you would not necessarily need to move from one extreme of spreading it out on a weekly basis for 7 years to the other extreme buying all of it right away.

One of the powers of having such a large sum is that it provides a lot more options to a person.. especially for someone who might otherwise have to save up for 7 years or more to accumulate that quantity of value in one place.

For sure, we likely realize that historically, there has been quite a bit of value that has come from frontloading into bitcoin, whenever we can, yet even frontloading has not always been the most optimal or the most profitable, even though DCA may well end up rising to the level of frontloading, especially if a DCA accumulator ends up employing a philosophy of investing as aggressively into bitcoin as he is able to accomplish without feeling that he is running too much risk of fucking things up, so such a guy might especially buy bitcoin at no matter what for quite a bit of time with whatever cashflow he has as it comes in, yet if he is usually accustomed to buying bitcoin with $100 to $150 per week, he might find himself with some additional considerations if he were to suddenly receive a lump sum that might be either many weeks of his usual DCA or it might even rise to the level of years of his DCA, so then he is left with a situation that is slightly different from his usual circumstances, and sure he could come to the conclusion just to throw the whole lump sum into bitcoin at whatever price might be happening at the moment, and sure maybe that might end up being a reasonably good way of dealing with the dilemma rather than considering either DCA and/or buying on dips as ways to potentially defer some of his buying in ways that might be better ways of hedging. .especially if the amount is way higher than his usual amount.. and perhaps the size of his stash and his other personal factors might also affect how he might choose to deploy the extra funds that he suddenly finds within his discretion regarding how to deploy them.

I could be that at this particular time in BTC's cycle there might not be much advantage to either spreading out a lump sum through DCA or through buying on dips. I will concede that.

Quote from: ginsan on January 24, 2025, 09:21:49 PM

There may be several factors that may be better used in a lump sum.

One of them is the cost savings for paying fees at the time of execution and also from that point of view DCA is not very appropriate for spreading the budget over a long period of time if we have funds early with a large amount.

If we have a lump sum amount available for us, we can choose our timeline for deploying that, and yeah we can divide that lump sum into various categories.

Let's take your $50k example, and let's just presume that we already have a guy that has been buying bitcoin fairly aggressively for 2-3 years at somewhere between $100 per week and $150 per week, so he has an average around $126 per week, so we could say to our selves that we already know that we likely are going to continue to have $100 to $150 coming in every week that we can DCA, so that amount does not need to directly impact our decision, except that we already know that we have an income.. .. yet maybe we still want to divide the $50k into a few categories. ... I am just giving these as examples to make them unequal amounts in order to suggest that you can do whatever you want, but you just come up with something that is tailored to your situation and is sufficient comfortable to you, even if it might seem a bit arbitrary or strange to others. ..and yeah, as I already mentioned, right now there might not currently be much value to delay investing all or almost all of the $50k into BTC right now, if right now, we were suddenly to come across $50k.

Here is another scenario:

1) You decide that you are going to invest $20k right away, which to you means investing $4k every 2 days for the next 10 days...which will not affect your regular DCA of $126-ish per week.

once the 10 days are completed you are going to

2) invest $14k right over the following 21 days, meaning that you are going to invest $2k every 3 days for the next 21 days, which will not affect your regular DCA of $126-ish per week..

After the 31 days have passed,

3) With about $6k of the amount, you decide that you are going to largely triple your regular DCA to right around $400 per week for the next 26 weeks

that ONLY leaves you $10k remaining out of the $50k

4) you decide that you are going to set up 10 buy the dip orders starting from $100k down to $75k, which means that you would buy $1k of BTC every time that the BTC price drops an additional $2,500 starting at $100k.

Yes, I know that some of the deferred buys seem a bit retarded, so amounts could be adjusted to make them feel less retarded, especially for a person who may want to error on the side of investing most (if not all) of the hypothetical $50k sooner rather than later. One of the things about having some orders that might not fill is to know and/or accept that money would end up not getting invested if the BTC price does not drop, and so surely it could feel like too much non-working cash to have $10k (1/5 of the total amount) set aside for buying on dips that might not happen... yet each person is going to come to differing conclusions, and maybe some people will consider that amount to be zero and others might be willing to set aside $5k (1/10 of the total amount) for buying on dips, but not $10k (1/5 of the total amount). The weighing of the trade offs for the answers to these balancing questions are somewhat personalized, and sure maybe for some folks the answers are more obvious than others, and sometimes there might be needs to practice for a while in order to better be able to answer the questions in a way that is sufficiently comfortable.

I think that my main point is attempting to show some value in considering all three of the buying options, even if we still might be inclined to believe that BTC prices are currently postured for up, we might still see some value in structuring some of our buys over time rather than putting everything in at one time.. and we can still error on the side of front-loading, even if we are also holding some value back too. Part of the value of getting a lump sum is having some benefits in considering options that might not have had otherwise been available.

Quote from: ginsan on January 24, 2025, 09:21:49 PM

That's what is interesting to conclude, when we have money we must have a good strategy and planning, input from your ideas will be very useful for many investors who want to take a stand in the choices they want to plan.

It is also true, if DCA for Discretionary income is certainly very good to plan in Bitcoin accumulation and very different from having a large budget at once. Buying at dips may be good if we already have btc or a satisfaction stage but I think new investors who want to invest in bitcoin always say dips are the best time regardless of whether they have done DCA or not.

To me, it seems that newer investors have to figure out ways to practice in their ways of allocating in order to figure out their own balances, and the balances do not really become very clear without a bit of ongoing practice, and surely the $50k at once scenario is not very usual for someone who might usually be in the practice of DCA investing at $100 to $150 per week, yet there surely could be some scenarios where that person gets some smaller amount like $2k or $4k, and they are faced with a similar kind of dilemma, even though the lump sum amount is smaller... and surely any time that the guy gets extra income that extra income could be considered in terms of whether it could be added to the DCA over a period of time, or should there be an immediate buying or might there be some value to holding back some of the amounts for possible BTC price dips that may or may not end up happening.

Yeah, we know that generally newbies should be erroring in the side of just buying regularly and right away, yet if the longer the newbie is buying regular and right away, the more potential that his already accumulated stack size (and perhaps even his having has shored up his back up funds) may well end up affecting his ways of considering his options when he ends up coming across some extra funds from time to time. The answer not necessarily obvious, and even someone who had been accumulating for a while might end up making mistakes with the lump sum, even though he had been practicing for a while and even though he was considering that he knew how to treat any additional funds that come in, yet when push comes to shove, there might be times in which, even an experienced DCA investor, may well need to reconsider both what he has been doing and how some new funds might be treated in order to bring more balance to his already existing situation.

In recent times, I had to make some tweaks to my own system. I was attempting to help a friend in real life to set up some hardware wallets and also to adjust some of his own practices in regards to the kinds of coins that he was holding and also how he was preparing for his future, and after I was speaking with him I ended up reviewing some of my own set up and realizing that my set up was not even how I had remembered it to be, and I had made some mistakes in moving some funds around because I had assumed certain things about my own set up that were not actually in place, and so largely the situation had been resolved, but not completely.. but at least I have a plan to resolve (and rebalance) that might take a bit of time to get back into balance, yet I am not too worried about it, since it was not really any kind of major oversight, because I was able to adjust it before it ended up potentially playing out in a way that would have ended causing more difficulties for me at a later time...so part of the point is that any of us can have mistakes and oversights, yet hopefully our mistakes and oversights end up playing out as minor inconveniences rather than really affecting us in negative ways based on our own sloppiness.

Quote from: ginsan on January 24, 2025, 09:21:49 PM

Actually, it is very disturbing to the peace of mind, meaning if investor A has never bought bitcoin and is just waiting for the dips, isn't he always wasting time watching the chart every day? It seems more boring compared to long-term planning for 7 years with a determination of $50k to be spread over 7 years with a routine execution of $126 every week.

Of course, with me, you are preaching to the choir if you are asserting that it is better to get started rather than trying to strategize an entry point, especially in bitcoin. I don't have any problem with the idea of preparing for both up and down, yet my own conclusion is that no one is prepared for UP if they either don't have any coins or they don't have enough coins, which is part of the justification to just keep buying BTC no matter what for at least a whole cycle before assessing if you are sufficiently prepared for UP.. unless you happened to have had front loaded your BTC investment, and there is no way to prepare for up by waiting.. waiters are ONLY preparing for down that may or may not end up happening.;.so yeah, both preparing for up and being sufficiently prepared for up tends to take a long time. There might be circumstances in which a person lump summing into bitcoin would be sufficiently prepared for up, yet it seems to me that even those who lump sum into bitcoin would likely be better served by also supplementing their lump sum investment with various additional BTC purchases over time.. but yeah, it is difficult to overly generalized when a person has sufficiently prepared for up, since those end up largely being self-assessments regarding if a person has enough or better yet more than enough BTC in light of their own personal factors..

Quote from: sotelorene on January 24, 2025, 10:59:16 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 24, 2025, 06:03:28 PM

[edited out]

I think I get your point and I have been calculating this some time ago about traders and investors who will make more profit in a long period of time like 4-5 years or more and initially I thought traders will make more profit than investors not until I realized that a trader can not make profit or gain continuously in this interval of time in fact as a matter of fact some time dey incur more loss than profit in a week and sometimes they waste their strength and energy carrying out analysis that are not sure or certain and sometimes I see them as people who just earn and useless because once they make profit the next time is to use it to trade again which we know the possiblity of making it again is not known.

However, it is possible that a trader can make more profit than an investor in short period because our intention as an investor is not even to hold for a short period of time so we shouldn't even compare investor and trader for a short period of time and again any investor who is holding for a short period is not much different from a trader. But when you hold for a long period of time properly definitely it will show your wallet when the time comes.

We are supposed to be talking about investing in this thread, and I have some difficulties for you or anyone else to be considering the possibility that a person could invest into bitcoin for less than 4 years and still be considered as an investor rather than a trader. So in that regard anyone trying to play bitcoin prices less than 4 years would have to be a trader rather than an investor, and the ONLY exception would be if such persons came into bitcoin with an intention of 4-10 years or longer then something came up with their health or some other life emergency kind of a situation that ended up causing them to get out of bitcoin in part or in total due to such unexpected circumstances.

Of course, if they are already old and knowing that they don't really have enough liquidity to be able to stay in bitcoin for at least 4 years, and if they still got into bitcoin they would be trading/gambling rather than investing, and even if they end up being correct and profitable in less than 4 years, that does not convert them into an investor merely because their trade/gamble played out in a successful way. .. They might even end up becoming so successful that they end up converting into an investor.

Let's say that in late-2022, an elderly person has around $200k total net worth, and such elderly person has to draw down on that networth by $20k to $35k every year just to pay for various basics, and so they want to keep some reserves and not to be overly risky with the places that they have their money.

Yet in late 2022, this person learned about bitcoin and gained confidence in bitcoin and decided to put right around $130k of the networth into bitcoin, and BTC prices were right around $18k, so the person bought right around 7.22 BTC with the $130k, and so yeah, that was a very risky move since the person needed the money within a year or two, yet the trade/ gamble ended up paying off quite well, and perhaps the person continues cashing out from his bitcoin starting in early 2024, maybe there was an initial cashing out of 0.72 BTC ($43k), when the BTC price was around $60k and so then now, such person still might have right around 6.5 BTC even having had cashed out some of the BTC within the yearly budget of $20k to $35k, and that arrangement ended up starting out as a trade but converted into an investment.. because now the person realizes that he probably can continue to withdraw bitcoin on a regular basis and largely sustain his living standard off of his BTC.

I think that your mixing up of ideas of profits can largely contribute towards your wanting to trade rather than invest, which surely I would not recommend, yet guys have to figure out how they are going to end up getting into bitcoin and various other personally related goals that they have, since sometimes building up an initial BTC investment stash may well help to inform how to go forward, and I really doubt that trading is a good way to build up a BTC stash, and it is surely outside of the scope of this thread.

There also can be a bit of a fantasy for a trader to convert into an investor, even though sometimes traders do figure out ways to convert into investors, and so the situations of individuals tend to vary so much that it can be quite difficult to really figure out how they might balance out their income in terms of how much they should invest into bitcoin, and it can be quite tempting to try to play BTC prices in regards to waves, yet that still is not what we are talking about in this thread.

Quote from: bitcoin_mining on January 25, 2025, 04:11:38 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 24, 2025, 06:03:28 PM

I am not proclaiming that rich people don't do DCA, and in fact I agree with you for the reasons that I already stated that there could be a lot of cashflow management reasons to employ DCA, yet if rich people get lump sum amounts coming available to them and they have already decided to invest into bitcoin, then they may well not be advantaged by spreading out their amount rather than front loading into BTC. Sure, if we have had a lot of BTC price rise in recent times, there may end up being a mixed strategy to account for dips rather than buying all right away, so there could be structures to buy dip and also DCA to spread out, yet they also may want to buy some right away just in case a dip does not happen... and surely other particulars regarding the extent to which they have other BTC or if they have other investments and perhaps other personal factors would help them to figure out how they might want to tailor their entrance into bitcoin, the extent to which they might front load and invest right away or to defer by buying dips and/or DCA.

DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) is one of the most effective strategies for investing, so this effective strategy is used by everyone from wealthy investors to those with relatively little money. It is different for those who don't know about DCA investment till now but those who know about DCA investment strategy should definitely invest in DCA strategy instead of investing in other strategies.

The difference between a rich investor and a middle class investor is that the rich investor gets investment opportunities with large amount of money regularly but the middle class investor doesn't get that much investment opportunity but they do it consistently.

Earlier usually investors used to invest in different strategies such as they first confirmed the amount of money they would invest and after confirming they pooled the money first. When they accumulated a large amount of money, they would use that money to buy bitcoins at a certain price in the market and they would wait for a positive change in this price and when they would get a profit. However, the biggest disadvantage of this earlier investment strategy was that investors could not consistently invest in this method, which resulted in many investment opportunities being missed. But when the DCA investment strategy became known to everyone, gradually everyone came to know about this investment strategy and understood its performance. Now investors don't focus on pooling all the money, they buy bitcoins with the amount that comes to them, thus gradually they maintain the consistency of investment and move forward.

How this investment is effective I am telling here, there is always volatility in the Bitcoin market so the market sometimes goes down and sometimes goes up.

Suppose an investor buys bitcoin four times in a month but it can be seen that within this one month the market of bitcoin will change significantly whether it is a positive change or a negative change. As a result, investors will have the opportunity to buy bitcoins during these few changes in price, thereby reducing the risk of their money and increasing the potential for profit. That is why DCA investment strategy is considered as an effective investment strategy and is generally used by both wealthy and ordinary investors.

I am not sure if I agree with all of your characterizations or description of history, even though some folks might have been learning that it is better to invest in bitcoin rather than trying to trade it, and DCA happens to be a pretty decent way for each person to adjust his weekly investment amount in accordance with his budget and how aggressive that he would like to be in terms of ongoingly accumulating bitcoin.

Not everyone is going to get smarter merely because they are buying bitcoin every week, and so there can be some advantage to trying to learn more about bitcoin as we are building our BTC portfolio on a weekly basis, and I suppose that investing into bitcoin every week can motivate people to learn about bitcoin, since they are investing into it regularly... yet it can also take time to learn about bitcoin too, and people sometimes are not even sure how to deal with their BTC going up a lot in value, so even if we try to prepare in theory, it still can be difficult to see that level of profits in our bitcoin holdings, which also can end up contributing to some folks selling too much bitcoin too soon, and I am not even sure how to help people to save themselves from themselves, yet DCA can sometimes help to just figure out a position size and then also potentially create some good cash management practices or even projecting out various BTC price scenarios so that when outrageous scenarios end up happening, there had already been some preparation, since the preparation could prepared for base case as compared with worse case and best case scenarios.. and by the way, even preparation might not help people in terms of not selling too much too soon and those kinds of common mistakes.

Quote from: Moreno233 on January 25, 2025, 04:59:37 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on January 24, 2025, 05:23:09 AM

Quote from: cryptoWODL on January 24, 2025, 04:29:08 AM

Investing short-term means exposing yourself to more risk, because you will never achieve success from this investment and never reach your goals. Even if you buy a little bit of Bitcoin, if the investment is for a long time, the portfolio will be much bigger. An Austrian Bitcoiner says that investing in Bitcoin for a long time i.e. 10 years using the DCA method will change your life i.e. Bitcoin will change your life.

Although there are traders who are actually successful in trading short-term with or without leverage, it's not for PLEBS like US. I discourage fellow plebs from "trading", but if you truly believe that you could profit as a day-trader, then to measure your success rate, make a pretend purchase in Bitcoin with 100% of your trading capital. Check if you outperformed Bitcoin every year. Because if you didn't, then you merely wasted your time and probably shortened your life-span from the mental stress and loss of sleep.

The human mind is wired to be curious, so the moment you mentioned that there are traders who are actually successful trading short term, there are people here whose curiosity would have been aroused and they will start searching for the answers of how those supposed successful traders did it. You know where such search will lead them to and what the outcome would be and I need not tell you that they will abandon this idea of buy the dip and HODL to start experimenting with trading until they are frustrated and possible leave Bitcoin or realize that long term is the real way to peace of mind and safety of their investment. This is the reason I try to block any trading idea from sitting well in my heart to avoid this temptation and it is good we use every opportunity we have to encourage people to think long term.

You might be correct that the solution is just to force yourself into the idea of not selling any bitcoin and keep buying no matter what.. .and then maybe after a whole cycle or two, the situation might start to become more clear.. And even with you, Moreno233, by your forum registration date, you will be coming on a full cycle in August, so some of us might really come to figure out where we are at, and sometimes by the times we start to get to having had been in bitcoin for a whole cycle, we might already start to realize that we need more than a whole cycle and that we may well need a couple of cycles before we start to consider that we might be able to change our ongoing BTC accumulation strategies.

Quote from: retreat on January 25, 2025, 05:13:57 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on January 24, 2025, 05:23:09 AM

Although there are traders who are actually successful in trading short-term with or without leverage, it's not for PLEBS like US. I discourage fellow plebs from "trading", but if you truly believe that you could profit as a day-trader, then to measure your success rate, make a pretend purchase in Bitcoin with 100% of your trading capital. Check if you outperformed Bitcoin every year. Because if you didn't, then you merely wasted your time and probably shortened your life-span from the mental stress and loss of sleep.

I agree that trading which tends to be short term is not suitable for everyone - that's why some say that "10% of traders are successful" and that's the truth, because I've been in trading and I can say that it's riskier, more stressful, and you will lose sleep because you need to monitor the market and see if your position is right.

So it's more advisable to get involved in bitcoin investment which is more potentially profitable and recommended, especially for beginners, because everyone can get involved in Bitcoin investment, you don't need to learn technical analysis or whatever, all you need is to allocate your discretionary income and invest with DCA or lump sum. You can invest regularly and hold it for the long term. It's that simple - you don't need to sacrifice your precious sleep time just to monitor the market.

I doubt that profitable traders are even close to 10%, especially in something like bitcoin and especially if we might compare performance to traders versus investors into bitcoin.

I am considering that probably less than 1% of traders of BTC would have had been able to beat a straight forwards DCA strategy, especially if we were to be looking at 8-10 years or more. They fuck around and talk about profits, and yeah in the short term they might have some lovely stories, but carry out their strategy in the long term and it would be a pretty rare trader who actually were able to beat a straight forward BTC DCA approach. .and whatever system they used ended up being luck rather than replicable.. They frequently talk a BIG game, though.