Quote from: Barikui1 on Today at 08:01:53 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 06:44:19 AM

The guy who had only been investing $100 for the past 8 years would have invested about $42k, yet would have ONLY accumulated about 5 BTC. Still good results, but still likely needing more time for the continued building of the investment or for further time to run for additional compounding to take place, and yeah, the future is also not guaranteed, so each of us can ONLY do our best in terms of how aggressive we are going to be or how consistent, persistent and regular in our BTC accumulation, and hopefully not fucking around too much waiting rather than investing with as much aggressiveness as we are able to achieve without recking ourselves.

You are 100% right about this and I also share the same sentiment as you sir, because one thing I have come to understand is that in as much as we are want to increase our stash of Bitcoin desperately, it is very important not to invest more than your capabilities, like investing what is going to give you some troubles in financing most of your daily needs, so cutting your coat according to your size financially is very important as a Bitcoin investor, because buying and accumulating Bitcoin is one thing and holding without tempering with it in the future is another thing altogether which will determine how profitable and successful you might be in the future, so it's very true that as we are accumulating Bitcoin, we should try all our possible best not to wreck ourselves in the process as most traders normally does, thinking that they can outsmart the market.

It is not necessarily going to be easy making it through one or two whole bitcoin cycles, continue to accumulate bitcoin and not get distracted by various diversions along the way, including making sure that we are holding a sufficient percentage of our BTC privately so that we don't end up getting rug pulled by some exchange (or other 3rd party).

Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 08:19:19 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 06:44:19 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 05:52:02 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 12:09:43 AM

Quote from: retreat on January 25, 2025, 05:13:57 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on January 24, 2025, 05:23:09 AM

Although there are traders who are actually successful in trading short-term with or without leverage, it's not for PLEBS like US. I discourage fellow plebs from "trading", but if you truly believe that you could profit as a day-trader, then to measure your success rate, make a pretend purchase in Bitcoin with 100% of your trading capital. Check if you outperformed Bitcoin every year. Because if you didn't, then you merely wasted your time and probably shortened your life-span from the mental stress and loss of sleep.

I agree that trading which tends to be short term is not suitable for everyone - that's why some say that "10% of traders are successful" and that's the truth, because I've been in trading and I can say that it's riskier, more stressful, and you will lose sleep because you need to monitor the market and see if your position is right.

So it's more advisable to get involved in bitcoin investment which is more potentially profitable and recommended, especially for beginners, because everyone can get involved in Bitcoin investment, you don't need to learn technical analysis or whatever, all you need is to allocate your discretionary income and invest with DCA or lump sum. You can invest regularly and hold it for the long term. It's that simple - you don't need to sacrifice your precious sleep time just to monitor the market.

I doubt that profitable traders are even close to 10%, especially in something like bitcoin and especially if we might compare performance to traders versus investors into bitcoin.

I am considering that probably less than 1% of traders of BTC would have had been able to beat a straight forwards DCA strategy, especially if we were to be looking at 8-10 years or more. They fuck around and talk about profits, and yeah in the short term they might have some lovely stories, but carry out their strategy in the long term and it would be a pretty rare trader who actually were able to beat a straight forward BTC DCA approach. .and whatever system they used ended up being luck rather than replicable.. They frequently talk a BIG game, though.

10% is a more generalized estimate from what I have read from doing simple searches on the internet. But if it's actually a mere 1% or less, then that would truly be very surprising and makes the HODLers' debate more practical, and that would STILL be a very BIG understatement.

Those who truly outperform Bitcoin consistently every year, perhaps they probably also short sell Bitcoin during the bearish cycle?

Plus for HODLers, we also probably should learn short selling to use as a hedge against our own Bitcoin investments during bear markets?

Yes, a lot of folks fantasize about how they could get rich quicker than everybody else, yet with bitcoin even though the bearmarkets can seem torturous, it still has not been necessary to fuck around trying to trade, since you can get astronomically rich by merely having had invested steadily.

Let's take the person who had invested $100 per week into bitcoin for the past 11.5 years. He would have invested $61.3k and accumulated 70 BTC. Do you need more bitcoin than that? Do you need more profits than that, even if you believe some of the traders could have had done better, I doubt it.. they lie about their results. .that is how gamblers are.

Maybe you prefer to ONLY go back 10 years, and such person would have invested $52.6k and accumulated 35.11, so of course, the shorter the period of time then the lower the quantity of BTC accumulated.

You are not going to know if your bitcoin is going to perform greatly merely from one or two cycles, and also if you had not been persistent, consistent, regular and perhaps whiimpy then you are also going to have had less superior results, and you likely need more time for the investment to compound upon itself.

The guy who had only been investing $100 for the past 8 years would have invested about $42k, yet would have ONLY accumulated about 5 BTC. Still good results, but still likely needing more time for the continued building of the investment or for further time to run for additional compounding to take place, and yeah, the future is also not guaranteed, so each of us can ONLY do our best in terms of how aggressive we are going to be or how consistent, persistent and regular in our BTC accumulation, and hopefully not fucking around too much waiting rather than investing with as much aggressiveness as we are able to achieve without recking ourselves.

👍 Those are very good points ser. Cool

Plus for those newbies/normies who recently started their Bitcoin journey, not at two digits, three digits, four digits, BUT five digits, they could make an argument that they're ROI would be much larger if they buy and HODL an altcoin - OK, they could have those profits like if they bought Bitcoin at three digits, BUT long term, their profits would STILL have to be held in the hardest money on Earth, Bitcoin.

People are retarded if they are distracted into shitcoins, and this has been a phenomena that has existed through quite a bit of bitcoin's history, even going back to 2014 there were various shitcoins coming onto the scene including Ethereum sparking the proliferation of more and more shitcoins, and now various Ethereum competitors sparking new waves of shitcoins, including shitcoins being built on and pegged to bitcoin through NFTs, ordinals, runes, inscriptions etc.. .. so there are frequently going to be distractions, and surely some of the distractions are going to have had shocking levels of returns for some (non-insider) normie folks who time their entrance and their exit - but who the fuck should want to be spending his time trying to both figure out which shitcoin to get into and how to attempt to time their entrance/exit including surely some folks get distracted into trying to either be insiders or to be connected sufficiently to insiders in order to attempt to get the scoop on some shitcoin prior to other more gullible (and less informed) normies.

Personally, I consider it a BIGASS waste of time to be trying to play the various roulette wheels of potentially 20k different shitcoins and to choose which one might have more pumpamentals than others including wasting time following supposed influencer groups or in some other way trying to get some kind of an inside scoop on some scammy project, whether it is Trump coin or some other bullshit unethical piece of crap project.

Sure guys are going to still want to spend time on shitcoins, and my own suggestion has been that if they can at least limit their time, energies and money to less than 10% of what they put into bitcoin, then at least they might have some chances of moderating their level of distractedness, yet surely it can be difficult to save a gambler/trader from himself, since each gambler/trader has a right to figure out his strategy and even to learn that he is not smarter than everyone else when he ends up going down the trader/gambler path and figuring that he is going to be in the 1%-ish or whatever who ends up actually beating bitcoin in real terms rather than baloney made up spin numbers that they shitcoiners/gamblers frequently present to show their supposed outperformance of bitcoin blah blah blah.

Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 08:19:19 AM

Newbies, HODLing your wealth in an altcoin/shitcoin simply is NOT worth that RISK. Buy a Hardware Wallet, or set up an offline computer, then HODL your precious Bitcoins in COLD STORAGE.

There is nothing wrong with getting started by holding bitcoin on exchanges and learning about bitcoin while building up a stash of bitcoin, and of course, the larger the bitcoin stash, then the more need to learn how to hold those bitcoin in self-custody.. so each person likely needs to figure out his bitcoin value (quantity) threshold prior to moving coins off of exchanges, how to store, including hardware wallets, some of which are better than others in terms of their being open source and having proven track records, yet even with fairly easy self-custody methods, there still can be some key management practices that need to be learned including saving back up keys and not just remembering their pin number on their hardware wallet.. .. and sometimes guys will overcomplicate their own self-custody and end up locking themselves out of their own coins or otherwise contributing to vulnerabilities without realizing it.

Sometimes people can be very smart, but still make really stupid mistakes without realizing their mistake(s) until it is too late, so surely it could take a while to learn some of the BTC storage methods and to put good private key management (and UTXO management) practices into place... so surely many guys have seen that I frequently assert to get started in bitcoin right away and to learn as you go, yet each person also has to figure out their own levels of risk in terms of how much BTC that they are willing to keep on exchanges and with third parties before learning self-custody for themselves. Some guys might be inspired and able to figure out their self-custody by the times they have ONLY $500 in value in bitcoin, and others, might get to $5k in value, and surely there are some folks who might hold more value on exchanges, and surely many of us realize that the higher the value held on exchanges, then the more motivated we should be to both figure out self-custody, but also to put self-custody into practice for something like 90% of our bitcoin holdings.

Quote from: fredericktaylor on Today at 03:19:14 PM

Quote from: BitBakerr1 on Today at 10:31:27 AM

Quote from: PremiumcryptoHub on January 22, 2025, 02:57:19 PM

Quote from: Jewan420 on January 21, 2025, 06:44:22 PM

Bitcoin is not a get rich quick scheme. You must wait a long time to succeed from Bitcoin. If you ask Bitcoin to give you quick profits like Altcoins, then you will be wrong. Because Altcoins are like gambling. It is absolutely impossible to say when it will happen. You may win from Altcoins at some point but your money is at risk. Here the chances of losing your money are higher. In the long run, it may not give you a big benefit or you may lose everything.

It is true that Bitcoin is not a get rich quick scheme but Bitcoin investment will guarantee you maximum success if you can be patient for long time. I never want to compare alt coins with bitcoin or make any comments about those coins. And the question to you is how many people have you seen who have succeeded in investing in alt coins. Bitcoin's price drops, but it quickly rises again. Ask those who are experienced and knowledgeable about investing and they will always tell you to prioritize Bitcoin as your investment. Bitcoin investment requires patience and consistency because if you have patience then you will be able to hold your investment long term and if you have consistency in investment you will be able to buy bitcoins regularly.

You are right, however I want to make a point here, when some newbies come across investing in Bitcoin in this thread they really don't understand that you people are talking about long term Bitcoin investment and not Bitcoin trading and they get confuse on the particular strategy to use in investing in Bitcoin, as long as I'm concern when it comes to bitcoin investment going for a Long term holding is more better and less risky, I know some newbies here where introduce into Bitcoin through the strategy of trading Bitcoin, I'm not saying trading Bitcoin is not profitable but is risky and should be done with just 1 percent of your discretionary income if you most trade and then you can use the remaining part of your discretionary income to invest in long term, another reason why I think long term Bitcoin investment is better than trading is that, since Bitcoin is $100k and let say you started accumulating with $100k weekly or monthly for 10 to 20 years and eventually now bitcoin hits $1 million in price do you think someone who has been trading for 30 years will be more successful in the Bitcoin investment journey knowing fully well that some times the trader was losing money too, so long term Bitcoin investment is the best and newbies should take note.

Trading in Bitcoin and gambling are the same because it is impossible to tell when you will make a profit by trading or gambling.

You may win from trading at times but your money is at risk.
Because trading makes people gain temporarily and not for future.
In my opinion, why risk your hard earned money by trading. Invest in Bitcoin, but for the long term.
Before investing for long term you must adopt certain strategies.

A portion of your earnings should be kept aside, for a long time as financial difficulties may arise temporarily.
You will no doubt invest in Bitcoin, but only for the long term. So Bitcoin long term investment will guarantee you maximum success.

Sure if you do everything correct, then you are going to have better odds of having success, yet surely there is no guarantee regarding your own ability to figure out best practices, to follow best practices and everything to end up working to your favor, even if you did everything as best as you were able to do.

Your word choice is not completely wrong fredericktaylor since for sure, it is a good idea for each of us to attempt to employ better practices (even if we might not exactly be able to determine what is best) in order to attempt to increase our odds of having better results and to give ourselves more options due to our having had exercised practices that were as good as we could figure them out to be.

Quote from: MusaPk on Today at 05:47:03 PM

Quote from: ginsan on January 25, 2025, 09:25:07 PM

Good explanation, it is a precise calculation and does not deviate at all. I agree with you that lump sum is a strategy for those who have extra money or in large amounts so that investors can act with a single purchase with the amount of money they have.
DCA is suitable for the long term with net income after adjustments to living expenses or discretionary income. So the steps taken by investors with the DCA strategy will take a long time, either 5 years or 10 years.

But from what has been explained with detailed calculations, of course large money is better to use the Lump sum strategy, in addition to saving purchase fees, Lump sum also saves time but the determination of the execution price will fall at one price only.
However, with DCA we may spend a lot of fees on each purchase, but our entry will not be fixed at one price because the purchase spread lasts for a long time.

The benefits are not much different, but that is a good difference and may be a good choice to apply along with following up on purchases for the next 10 years.

We read everywhere on Bitcointalk that DCA is best way to invest in Bitcoin. To understand exactly what DCA is and how it benefits us, we have to put some effort by calculating results of DCA on previous Bitcoin prices. There are different tools which can help you in calculating results of DCA, three of them are:
https://dcabtc.com/
https://costavg.com/

https://dcacryptocalculator.com/
We can cross check results of DCA on these three sites listed above. With DCA we can go bullish in buying Bitcoin when we have extra cash or if we see that price has taken dip. One thing is also very clear that whether we go for Lump Sum or DCA, it must be for long term i.e. for 5 years or more.

One thing that is so advantageous to retrospectively analyzing DCA is that we can plug in some numbers to see how they play out during such time and get a bit of an automated and standard output.

If we want to figure out lump sum, then we have to figure out how much money any given person would have had at any given point of time, and the reality of the matter is that if we point out that some hypothetical person gets a bonus twice a year for the past 8 years, and then we hypothesize that such person is lump summing because he invests 100% of that lump sum into bitcoin, then the fact of the matter is that we are not really employing any practice that is different from how a DCA practice could be structured, so many times we can say fuck off with your assertion that lump sum is better, since DCA can still be structured like lump sum if it is investing as much money as comes available as soon as it comes available.

So there is a bit of a fantasy for guys to be suggesting that 7 years ago a guy had $35k available to him so he bought 7 bitcoin (at $5k per bitcoin), as compared to the guy who DCA'd into bitcoin over the past 7 years and the DCA'er only got 2.7 BTC with the same amount invested.

Who fucking cares about the amount invested, since the lump sum investor who fails to continue to invest into bitcoin is a whimp as compared to the one who both lump summed in at $5k 7 years ago and also invested $100 per week, so instead of ONLY getting 7 BTC, he ended up getting 9.7 BTC with double the amount invested ($70k invested). Which one would you rather be? The whimpy retard who did not have enough conviction to keep buying BTC or the one who continued to reinforce his conviction by continuing to buy BTC, even though he spent twice as much and his average cost per BTC was higher than the lump sum investor? Does anyone need links to see these BTC price and quantity numbers? You can look at the BTC price in early 2019 to figure out how much $35k would have had gotten you, and you can also look at the DCA websites (such as those above) to see how many BTC $100 per week between early 2019 and now would have had gotten you up until this point in time. Then add up the numbers... and of course, we can see what would have had happened in the past, and we can attempt to figure out how we might treat bitcoin from here and into the future, since of course, it is quite unlikely that the past numbers are going to be repeated into the future, yet we still can attempt to figure out our BTC investment approach that accounts for the various strategies of DCA, lump sum and/or buying on dips.

Over the years, several of us, including yours truly, have continued to present examples that when it comes to king daddy, it has tended to be way better to be an active investor who is ongoing, persistent, consistent and perhaps even aggressive in regards to ongoing accumulation of bitcoin through ongoing buying of BTC as compared to being some whimpy twat who buys and sits on his hands for the next 7-10 years waiting to become a bajillionaire based on one or two purchases.

I would suggest that to the extent that any of us are able, then we should attempt to have commitment and reinforcement of such bitcoin conviction and commitment through ongoing investment and buying of bitcoin rather than worshiping the lazy ass lump sum whimpier approach to bitcoin. But hey whatever, you can do what you like, including worshiping the whimp.. .. which truly I will concede that even the whimpy bitcoin investor would have had done way better than the nocoiner who failed/refused to take any action to buy bitcoin, which truly there are a lot of those folks still out there.. including those thinking that bitcoin is too high to get started right now, and if they stick with their dumbass waiting perspective, they are likely going to look back 8-12 years or more and realize how much of a dummy they were for failing refusing to act or even realizing that they ended up being way too whimpy in their bitcoin approach by considering that they could just lump sum into bitcoin and sit on their hands, when most likely a more interactive approach to bitcoin would have had resulted in way better personal outcomes (even though sure, bitcoin's future price performance is not guaranteed, either).