Quote from: Cryptmuster on Today at 08:23:13 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 27, 2025, 05:10:09 PM

If you already accumulated enough bitcoin (or more than enough), then you are in a position to wait.

If you have not accumulated enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin, then you might need to consider continuing to accumulate. Of course, since you have been registered on the forum since 2017, you may well be in a position in which you have accumulated enough or more than enough bitcoin. . That is surely for you to figure out.

Yes, you are right, I have accumulated a pretty good position for a much lower price

You may end up getting tricked by your own sense of what is considered to be a low price, rather than staying focused on the more important thing which is continuing to accumulate bitcoin persistently, ongoingly consistently and perhaps aggressively until you reach more than enough. Of course, no one can answer the question of "what is more than enough" except for you, so you could end up coming to the wrong conclusion... but sure, at least, if you have already accumulated a decent amount of bitcoin, then it might not be a big deal to wait.. but it still does not mean that you are going to end up arriving at the correct conclusion.

Quote from: Cryptmuster on Today at 08:23:13 AM

and now I am just waiting because I do not want to buy such an expensive bitcoin.

That is difficult to know too. Back in 2016 and into early 2017, bitcoin seemed to be pretty expensive at $1k too... so we surely can get mislead by our perceptions of expensive.

Quote from: Cryptmuster on Today at 08:23:13 AM

I do not want to say that I am right, or that my strategy is the best, but I decided for myself that this is the best in my situation. I admit that bitcoin may not rise much above 150k in this cycle, but here I can also be wrong, this is just my plan that I am sticking to. In the next cycles we can see more expensive bitcoin, but for this we need to understand that this is another 5+ years of hold, who is ready for this, who has enough patience, can buy now, this should not be a mistake.

I am not saying that I really know either.. but if BTC ends up going 2x to 20x higher, then you might realize that it would have had been better to stay focused on continuing to accumulate BTC.

Even with myself, I had accumulated quite a bit in 2014 and I had tentatively concluded that I had enough BTC, but I could not resist continuing to accumulate into 2015, 2016 and early 2017, so even when I look back at my earlier assessments, I can see various faults that I had in my thinking, but most of my faults related to ways that I might have had been able to continue to accumulate.. and so it can be hard to really know while we are going through something if we might be striking a correct kind of a balance, and it seem to me that your balance is that you are afraid of using your fiat at these prices and then feeling like a sucker if the BTC price ends up going down and you don't have any money left.

I can sympathize with having money prepared to buy for more down, just in case, yet we also likely need to continue to consider whether we are sufficiently and/or adequately prepared for up, and surely in my own presumptions (both historically and even currently), I never presumed that the BTC price would go down, yet I never wanted to run out of money if the BTC price went down, so I would tend to have money preserved for certain buy points if the BTC price were to go down without presuming that it would go down.. since if you are a HODLer, then it should end up that you are better off for the BTC price to go up rather than down, so in that sense maybe the split should be 90/10 in favor of up or something like that.. but hey whatever, you can think and/or prepare how you like, and even though some folks think down before up and/or presume that they should be able to buy at around these same prices at a later date, we also have periods of time that bitcoin goes on a considerable punishing rip (punishing of the no coiners/low coiners), and so even if we end up getting a dip, the dip is not anywhere even close to what the fence sitters could have had bought earlier.. so there is some value to have preparation for fairly extreme scenarios to the upside, even if you are considering them to be fairly low likelihood to happen.. ..and yeah, no one can figure out your own personal balances outside of yourself... even though in experience I have witnessed over and over and over guys who are way underprepared for up, even though they are proclaiming to be sufficiently and/or adequately prepared for up, they are overly prepared for down and under prepared for up.. and hey,, that is how it goes..

Many of us are likely feeling lucky that we are in a place to recognize and/or appreciate that we have one of the best, if not the best (most pristine of assets ever known to man), and we can also witness that a decent number of nomies still want to fuck around with the risk of being way under prepared for up.. and yeah, of course, you can do what you like, since however well that you do or don't do is all relative, including that a guy with some coin is going to be better off than the no coiner. A whimpy and consistent bitcoin buyer is likely going to be better off than the low coiner fence sitter, and the aggressive buyer is likely going to be better off than the whimpy buyer... and so yeah, of course, there are no guarantees in this whole process, yet any of us studying bitcoin should be amazed at level of luck that we have in regards to the ongoing direction of bitcoin including the level of adoption and the fact that various rich folks, governments, institution, etc are coming to bitcoin way after we got started, and they are largely here to pump our bags whether they want to or not.. they are advertising for us and pumping away since many of them are also realizing that there are not enough coins to go around, even if they fuck around trying to make paper bitcoin and engage in various fractional reserve shenanigans, there still are not enough bitcoin and many of them are going to get into a pickle if they are engaged in practices to make it seem that they have more bitcoin than they actually have and so they are realizing that they need actual bitcoin and there is ONLY so much that they are able to do to fake the bitcoin holdings that they have.

If we account for some of the actual reality rather than presuming (and assuming) that bitcoin is some kind of a mature asset with ups and downs and blah blah blah not understanding what the fuck is bitcoin, then it seems that part of being a bitcoiner who actually has some appreciation of what is bitcoin is being focused on accumulation in the earlier years of investment (and while learning about bitcoin), whether it takes one, two or three cycles to get to a status of overaccumulation.

Sure, you have already been in bitcoin for nearly 8 years, so of course, it is possible that you have already gone through a sufficient and/or adequate period of consistent, persistent and/or ongoing BTC accumulation.. perhaps you did already go through that and perhaps you did not, and that is up to you to figure out if your level of aggressiveness in regards to your earlier BTC accumulation was good enough or if you largely had been overly whimpy in your prior BTC accumulation and perhaps even in questioning if your current wait is justified given your already disclosure that you have not quite gotten to a status of either enough BTC or more than enough BTC.

In other words, you seem to have had admitted that you still have not accumulated enough BTC or more than enough BTC, yet you still believe that waiting is a good strategy. .and sure, maybe your strategy will work out, and maybe it won't.. .. just think of the guys in late 2016 early 2017 who were considering that $1k bitcoin was expensive.. and they were waiting for $500 ish.. I interacted with quite a few of those guys... and sure some of them were low coiners and others were no coiners, and some of them could have had either bought a bunch of BTC or even they could have had gotten into $100 per week of bitcoin at that time, and so even getting into bitcoin at $100 per week at that time would have had been pretty good..

But even if we look at your own situation of mid 2017.. If you had started buying bitcoin at $100 per week from August 2017 until present, you would have right around 3.12 BTC right now with $39k invested, and sure you could have had periods of investing more or less, but a consistent BTC buying puts you in a decent place.

Regarding someone entering into bitcoin right now or someone who had not adequately invested in bitcoin in his earlier times, he still may well be able to just buy bitcoin in a DCA kind of a way, and perhaps supplement that DCA approach with holding back some fiat for buying on dips that might happen.

Quote from: betswift on Today at 08:29:39 AM

^ Sticking to the plan is always the right way.
Even if it may be wrong in the end, it should be followed to then be analyzed, what went wrong, why, etc.
And what would be considered.. over accumulated?

Going beyond your goal is overaccumulation. If you are brand new to bitcoin and/or investing, then I doubt that you are even close to reaching a status of accumulation.. but sure maybe you have been investing in bitcoin (and other things) for a while and/or maybe you were able to front load your bitcoin investment. Many times there are preferences to allow the bitcoin investment to compound for a while prior to switching from accumulation and into a status of selling.. but sure there could be guys who might be able to get to such status of overaccumulation earlier than others if they had started with a large amount and/or front loaded their investment..

For example, if you considered that you needed around 10 years of your income/expenses in bitcoin in order to be able to live off of it, and you measured the value of bitcoin ]at the 200 WMA, then if your target income was $80k per year, then right now you would need 18.35 BTC to be at the bare minimum entry-level of reaching such sufficient accumulation status.. so if you went beyond such accumulation amount then you have reached a status of overaccumulation.

Of course if you are using the same standard (of an income of $80k per year) to assess how many bitcoin you need to reach overaccumulation status in a projection into the future, then someone with those $80k per year standards, may well need only around 1/3 of that same quantity in 4 years from now (so perhaps around 6-7 BTC 4 years from now), and of course the amount of how many BTC that you might need is not guaranteed to work out in advance, so you have to just do your best to work towards the goals that you consider may well end up materializing into the future.... and for sure, it should be way easier to assess whether you have already reached such overaccumulation status in the present or if you are close to getting there in the present as compared to being specific with how much you might need into the future.. even though surely you should be able to project ballpark ideas into the future and work towards those.

Of course, you might come up with your own formula for figuring out what you believe to be either sufficient accumulation status and/or over accumulation status.