Quote from: Obab on January 29, 2025, 09:32:44 AM

Quote from: woez on January 29, 2025, 09:13:18 AM

Quote from: Tmoonz on January 29, 2025, 05:45:18 AM

What happens to those that are being distracted by those scammers is that they easily get carried away by hearing what they want to hear, you know there is always a direction towards whatever we give attention and that is what we may end up doing, that is to say one should be be more careful about what we give attention because a man might always want to will up doing just as his mind thinks, those that makes themselves vulnerable for a quick and easy money making mind sets gets excited on getting to hear what they want from those scammers, I call those scammers fishermen because they will always come with bates that will attract the fishes to be trapped.

Making money fast sometimes ends tragically. Everything starts out well and in the middle of the journey there are reasons made to make it seem real and they do not hesitate to drain the money of the targeted people, especially those who have entered and invested in their platform.

Fast earning efforts can sometimes be dangerous, especially when it’s trapped in weak or fraudulent proposals. Sometimes it pledges a lot in the beginning, but later people are damaged. Before investing, research should always be verified properly, and research is very important before making any decision.
I think if you’re thinking the same in investing, you must move forward through practice practice practice. This allows you to reach your specific place. It is very valuable to earn substances slowly from earning money very quickly because fast money does not last all the time.

You make a decently good point. With shitcoins (which happens to be any crypto or crypto-related project other than bitcoin) there should be a presumption that it is some kind of a scam, even if it happens to be in the top of some coinmarket cap listings, and so since we are not talking about shitcoins in this thread, we need not get distracted by how much due diligence we may need to do in order to be comfortable involving ourselves with gambling with such crap. i have also frequently asserted that if we have little will power in regards to being tempted to get involved in shitcoins or even trading bitcoin, then we should at least limit our involvement in shitcoins and/or trading(gambling) to less than 10% the size of our bitcoin investment size (and without cheating).

Regarding bitcoin, surely anyone who either does not have any bitcoin or has concluded that he does not have enough, then he probably should get started right away or just continue DCAing on a weekly basis. Sure there may be some needs for any low coiner or no coiner to figure out various aspects of bitcoin and/or to figure out his 9 individual factors in order to be able to adjust his bitcoin investment position size, so the question for the low coiner, no coiner is not about whether to invest into bitcoin, yet there could be questions regarding how much to be investing into bitcoin, whether weekly or some other timeline based on individual cashflow/discretionary income circumstances.

Quote from: Cryptmuster on January 29, 2025, 10:44:41 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 28, 2025, 04:22:00 PM

You may end up getting tricked by your own sense of what is considered to be a low price, rather than staying focused on the more important thing which is continuing to accumulate bitcoin persistently, ongoingly consistently and perhaps aggressively until you reach more than enough. Of course, no one can answer the question of "what is more than enough" except for you, so you could end up coming to the wrong conclusion... but sure, at least, if you have already accumulated a decent amount of bitcoin, then it might not be a big deal to wait.. but it still does not mean that you are going to end up arriving at the correct conclusion.

As for you, are you still buying Bitcoin now?

It seems that you should not be attempting to judge your status of overaccumulation or not based on what I am doing, since my own circumstances are likely quit different from yours, and you have largely already asserted that you have not even gotten close to reaching an overaccumulation status yet... so you probably should be continuing to buy BTC, since I suspect that you have made several mistakes in the past in regards to either not continuing to accumulate through buying, perhaps waiting for the BTC price to go down and then selling too many too soon. So it seems to me that you continue to make the same mistake, yet you are trying to find validation for your ongoing mistakes and/or trying to see what others are doing.

In regards to my own situation, I thought that I had already explained it several times, yet sure, I can respond again, in light of your question.. to the extent that you are being genuine and really want to know, I will give you the benefit of the doubt, for the moment.

In late 2013, when I first got started investing into bitcoin, and really figured out that I wanted to invest into bitcoin, I had largely already been investing into a variety of non-bitcoin investments for more than 20 years prior to my getting started in bitcoin. In the very beginning, I thought that I would establish a 6-month budget for myself, which then I divided into 26 parts to invest within my allowance on a weekly basis for the next 26 weeks. I also thought that I would research into bitcoin while I was investing for those first 6 months and figure out where I might want to go from there, and so by the time I was getting close to the end of the first 6 months, in about May 2014, I decided that I was going to extend my budget for another 6 months with similar amounts of money as I had authorized myself in the first 6 months and that I would continue to study into bitcoin.

Towards the end of 2014, I had largely concluded that I had established enough of a bitcoin position, which at that time, I had considered to be right around 10% of my quasi-liquid investment portfolio, so I considered that I did not need to continue to add to my bitcoin investment.. Bitcoin prices were then at around $400 and my average cost per BTC was around $600.

At the very end of 2014, bitcoin prices dropped down into the lower $200s and even had a couple of spikes into the mid $100s in early 2015, and at the same time, I had a business that I was partnering with another person, and we had some business related disputes that pretty much contributed to my having a lot of cashflow problems in the beginning of 2015 that lasted through quite a bit of 2015, yet I had decided that since the BTC price continued to be quite low, I would continue to invest into bitcoin with portions of any extra cashflow that came my way, and so it ended up by the middle or end of 2015, my investment into bitcoin had gone to about 13.5% of my quasi-liquid networth so I had considered that I was overinvested in bitcoin by 3.5%, and so I created systems (and formulas) to sell on the way up and buy on the way down, yet I pretty much had to divide my BTC stash into 3 categories in order to figure out my authorization levels to only sell from my profitable BTC and ONLY from the profits, so let's say that I had 10 BTC, and so largely my formula allowed that if the BTC price went up by $10, then the profits would be $100 and I could not sell any more than $25... and so with the passage of time as the BTC price continued to go up, I converted my formula into an ability to sell up to 10% of my BTC holdings every time that the BTC price doubled, and then little by little the amount shrunk, so currently, I sell less than 2.5% every time the BTC price doubles, even though I know that I could authorize myself to sell higher quantities based on both my earlier employment of higher sell authorizations in my earlier formulas and also based on the fact that my BTC holdings have largely doubled 8 times since I first put those systems into place, which causes around a greater than 256x compounding of value for an overwhelming majority of my BTC holdings, even though also currently I like to consider my overall BTC cost basis as around $1k, so then it is easier to calculate and it also accounts for some earlier mistakes that I made in regards to some of my coins that were hacked based on sim swap losses... so for convenience sake, I could consider any BTC that I currently hold to be in about 103x profits.

Essentially, what I am saying is that I had categorized my BTC as reaching a status of adequate accumulation in late 2014 with 10% of my quasi-liquid investment portfolio in BTC, and by late 2015, I had considered my further accumulation to have amounted to overaccumulation which I considered allowed me to create my selling formulas that largely would ONLY involve fractions of the overaccumulated amounts, but then since the BTC price largely rose up to nearly $20k in late 2017, my own personal holdings had gone up from 13.5% accumulation levels to right around 85% levels, almost exclusively based on BTC price appreciation rather than based on my continued purchasing of BTC or my adding of new value to my BTC holdings.

Between late 2015 and now, I have largely continued to employ my same system of considering myself able to sell based on overaccumulation levels, but I continue to sell only small amounts of my BTC and ONLY once in a while do I add new value to my BTC holdings, such as the dip in late 2022, I ended up running out of money on the dip down below $20k so I had ended up adding some new money at that time to continue to buy BTC around then as the price was down... but largely if you think about it in late 2022, if we consider my costs per BTC to be around $1k (and I remained in overaccumulation status), my BTC profits levels went from around 69x and then down to about 16x.. and even if we consider that maybe my allocation in BTC had gone down to around 45% of my total quasi-liquid investment portfolio during the greatest portion of the BTC dip in late 2018, but then in 2021, my BTC percentage was up to 90% of the size of my quasi-liquid investment portfolio, so there tends to not be needs for me to buy an additional BTC since I largely reached a state of overaccumulation in late 2015, and I never got out of such overaccumulation status through the later years until now, and I mostly continue to hold an overwhelming majority of my BTC.

At the bottom of this post, you can see my own assessment of the various percentage of assets in my overall investment portfolio between late 2013 and mid-2022. I have not updated it since mid-2022.

You seem to be in quite a different position, and you even admitted that you are not close to reaching a level of overaccumulation that would give you potential luxury to wait rather than to buy, and if you sold BTC, you are wanting to buy back cheaper, which I truly don't believe (and I never have practiced any of my own selling of BTC with expectations to buy back cheaper.. I think it is a bad idea to sell any BTC with expectations of buying back cheaper, and so that is part of the reason (or perhaps the main reason?) why I had always figured out formulas to sell BTC within percentages of profits and without any expectation of buying back cheaper.. and again from a position of assessed overaccumulation.

By the way, when I tell you that in late 2014, I had 10% of my quasi-liquid portfolio in bitcoin, and 90% in various traditional assets, I had already gotten to a status with my other assets that I had assessed those other assets on their own (and without the help of bitcoin) to be large enough to be able to sustain me and my then standard of living. When my bitcoin ended up growing, those other assets grew too, but they were only growing at around 6% per year or something like that, so then even when those other assets got down to only 10% of my total investment portfolio and bitcoin was 90% of my investment portfolio, I still assessed that I would be able to sustain myself off of those other assets (without counting my BTC), yet surely my BTC holdings ended up complementing and supplementing assets that I had already deemed would be able to sustain me. Of course, the world wide crash of assets and also proclamation from various fiat institutions that they were printing the shit out of fiat money, that contributed towards my losing some confidence in the ability of my existing traditional assets to still continue to sustain me, since largely I presumed that the debasement of the dollar had largely contributed towards my traditional assets to have a debasement that largely caused them to be considered about 1/2 as valuable as I had previously considered them to be, even though they continued to grow and I have not been materially withdrawing from them... And, after 2020, those traditional assets have even gone up nominally in value greater than they had been going up previously, yet I still consider the ongoing debasement of the dollar to cause their real value to be going up less than it had been going up prior to 2020.

Quote from: Cryptmuster on January 29, 2025, 10:44:41 AM

My situation is that I have spent almost all of my allowed budget for investing and that is what I mean when I say I have accumulated enough Bitcoin.

From your earlier post it sounded to me that you were waiting to buy the dip. Part of the idea of DCA is that a person may well have some kind of an income, and then he takes from his income every week, such as 5-25% of his income to buy bitcoin. Sure you could buy half with DCA and then save the other half for buying the dips, so sure of course, you are the one who needs to decide if you are in a position to discontinue DCA and to ONLY buy the dips, which could leave you in a problematic position if you are still building your BTC stash and trying to get to a large enough quantity that you can consider yourself to be in an overaccumulation status.

Quote from: Cryptmuster on January 29, 2025, 10:44:41 AM

I still have some stablecoins but I am holding them in case of any significant correction, if there is one, since I bought most of my coins in the bear market and would not like to continue buying now when the price of Bitcoin has increased so much.

Sure you have rights to conclude that it is a good idea to wait rather than continuing to buy, even though you have admitted that you have not reached a status of over accumulation, and sure maybe it will work out for you to wait, but I would be careful in regards to how much you might be overly relying on a waiting and/or buying on the dip strategy, even though you are surely the one in the best position to assess your own status of accumulation and the extent to which you consider it to be sufficient in regards to your own future expectations and/or if you ever want to be able to reach an overaccumulation status so that it would start to make sense to start to sustainably withdraw your BTC and potentially be able to live off of them without depleting the principle. I talk about both price based and time based sustainable withdrawal in my thread on the topic, yet I consider either of those strategies to be applicable ONLY after having had reached an over accumulation status, so if you had not reached an over accumulation status, then from my point of view, you would just be overly depleting your principle.

Quote from: Cryptmuster on January 29, 2025, 10:44:41 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 28, 2025, 04:22:00 PM

I am not saying that I really know either.. but if BTC ends up going 2x to 20x higher, then you might realize that it would have had been better to stay focused on continuing to accumulate BTC.

Even with myself, I had accumulated quite a bit in 2014 and I had tentatively concluded that I had enough BTC, but I could not resist continuing to accumulate into 2015, 2016 and early 2017, so even when I look back at my earlier assessments, I can see various faults that I had in my thinking, but most of my faults related to ways that I might have had been able to continue to accumulate.. and so it can be hard to really know while we are going through something if we might be striking a correct kind of a balance, and it seem to me that your balance is that you are afraid of using your fiat at these prices and then feeling like a sucker if the BTC price ends up going down and you don't have any money left.

True, I understand that too, but I think I should try to sell bitcoin (maybe some of it) to buy more in a bear market when the price drops.

I don't believe in that, and probably you have been doing that for the last almost 2 cycles (nearly 8 years), and that might be part of the reason that you have not reached overaccumulation status. But, hey you can do what you like and try to figure out if selling is a good way to accumulate more bitcoin rather than just focusing on buying, which you will know will result in more bitcoin (even if some of them might end up costing more).

Quote from: Cryptmuster on January 29, 2025, 10:44:41 AM

I guess you can say that in a bear market the price may not be below 100k, and I admit that too, but I will at least try to do it, and I hope that I will be right. But for now I continue to hold, because I believe that bitcoin will still grow.

Yep.. in the end it is up to you to figure out whether continuing to buy is a good idea or if waiting is a good idea, and I have given my point of view several times, and maybe your gamble (of waiting) will end up working out for you.

By the way, I will take back my earlier comment accusing you of not being serious, since it mostly seems that you are serious. I am not 100% certain, but fairly certain, and at least certain enough to realize that other low coiners and no coiners also believe that waiting is a good strategy, and I think that it is a pretty dumb strategy, but at least you have some coins.. so that helps more for you as compared with folks who either don't have any BTC or hardly have any BTC...but some of them will also come to the wrong conclusion to believe that waiting is a good approach.

Quote from: MusaPk on January 29, 2025, 06:55:29 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 28, 2025, 07:00:29 PM

9 individual factors.

The 9 factors are great way to analyze yourself that where you stand and how can you proceed with Bitcoin accumulation. Like you cash flow can tell how much you can invest per week or month, while the number of Bitcoins you have gives you idea about your target Bitcoins.

I will just highlight that 8 our of the 9 factors relate to figuring out various aspects of yourself, and only one of the factors is to consider how bitcoin compares with other places that you can put your value, so surely there are quite a few people who come to the conclusion that they want to invest in bitcoin and gain exposure to bitcoin, so then once they reach that conclusion, then they may well only have 8 factors rather than 9 factors to look at, to consider and to work out.