I totally agree with you waiting for the Dip is wrong for both newbie and old investors who wants to increase their portfolio and doing this won't only make an investor miss some good opportunity to invest rather it will make an investor to spend longer time in accumulating their Bitcoin. However, in my opinion instead of an investor to wait for Dip simply because they have some tangible Bitcoin in their wallet I will still suggest or if I am the one I will still be investing using the DCA but as much as my initial way of... While I still prepare for the Dip I think with this an investor won't miss so much opportunity, funny enough some investors who wait for the Dip sometimes when the Dip comes is either they won't have enough money to buy or they won't even invest at all because the Dip comes unexpected.
I disagree with you mate, although not entirely, A newbie has no business waiting for the dip since he/she has no existing Bitcoin investment, so should start immediately to accumulate Bitcoin.
There's levels to this old investor ratings. There's an old investor who is closer to his accumulation target, as well as one who's still far from his target. For example
Let's take a scenario of two investor who has same plan of holding for 15 years and an accumulation target of 10btc.
Investor A has been into Bitcoin for 5 years and accumulated 3.5 BTC out of the 10, you can say he's still far from his target and as well should continue buying regularly and not necessarily only wait for the dip.
While
Investor B already has 8btc in 8 years and still has 7 more years to go, you can see that this investor was more aggressive in his early days and is already much near his accumulation target. Such investor can choose to save up his normal purchasing amounts and wait for the dip to reach his accumulation target.
Your examples aren't bad.. yet I think that it is a bit problematic to point out the idea of 10 BTC in 15 years as a kind of abstract, and surely your second guy had 3 more years investing, so he is further along in his journey, but also time wise they have different goals since the quantity of BTC needed for reaching a similar dollar equivalent goal is going to be different, even if the BTC goal is stated as being the same (10 BTC).
Of course, your overall point is still valid, which is that a person who has gotten closer to his accumulation goal is in a better position to transition out of a more strict DCA practice.
[edited out]
...... Therefore, for beginners
who are really serious about investing in Bitcoin,
and already have a lot of cold cash, it is best to invest immediately. .....
Why would there be any kind of requirement for a beginner to have a lot of cash to start investing into bitcoin?
Why couldn't a beginner start with investing $10 into bitcoin?
And why would they need to be serious? Surely a person could start to invest into bitcoin with a small amount and build up his seriousness level later and also to build up his amount to invest later too..
What I am saying is not an absolute necessity, but rather an example for people who want to invest in Bitcoin, they should do it immediately if they are ready. Besides, you are right, starting Bitcoin investment with a small amount of money is also not a bad idea. But why do I say a lot of money in my post? I aim it at beginners who already have economic stability and want to invest in Bitcoin. Apart from that, talking about seriousness, I think this is very important to instill from the start when investing in bitcoin. Because how can an investor not start seriously when buying bitcoin. Is it possible that someone bought bitcoin just for fun, I don't think so. That's why you need to be serious when starting to invest in Bitcoin. Because bitcoin is an investment asset and not for people to play around with. But once again I emphasize that what I say is not an absolute requirement. Because of course some people have different assumptions regarding this matter. But this is what I did from the beginning when I invested in Bitcoin.
I question whether there is a need for the normie newbie to be serious from the start of his bitcoin investment. Some people can learn their level of seriousness as they go.
There is nothing wrong with your point. I just don't consider any need to emphasize a need to be serious, even though surely I recognize value in being serious, I think that it can be developed, and it might be difficult to know what is the meaning of seriousness, exactly.
Sure having money and having some organization and having some seriousness are helpful, and having those characteristics may well contribute towards newbies being better bitcoin investors, but none of those characteristics are required prior to getting started in bitcoin... and it seems to me that the most important and basic part in getting started in bitcoin relates to having $10 to buy bitcoin, and most of the other details can be worked out.
Sure if a person is not ready, willing and/or able to sort out his cash management, then that newbie is likely not going to be successful in either holding onto his bitcoin or figuring out ways to invest into bitcoin consistently, persistently regularly and perhaps even aggressively, which should be goals to attempt to work towards being able to accomplish, even though having those goals don't seem to be required to get started. To me it seems that the only thing required to get started is having $10 available to buy bitcoin. We might be saying similar things in regards to those other things being nice and helpful, but I still don't consider them requirements - even if they are nice to have and helpful.
It likely is not even a good point to argue about, since you might be saying to some newbie that you want them to be serious when starting to invest in bitcoin, and I might be saying to the newbie that I don't give any shits if he is serious. If he has $10 he can get started, and if he cares about his $10 then he better get serious, but whether or not he is serious is up to him to figure out how much he wants to keep or grow his $10 or at least risk such $10 within an investment rather than a traders mindset. There are a lot of devil in the details, sure bitcoin is better as an investment rather than a trade, and investors come to bitcoin with a 4-10 year or longer mindset, yet there are folks who are not ready, willing able to commit to 4-10 years or longer, and so I would still suggest my preference like you, but also acknowledge that they can do whatever, they like. I may or may not be willing to help them to get started, but yeah, I recommend investing into bitcoin rather than trading it.. but again, people can do what they like, and even if they come to bitcoin with a bunch of deficiencies in their finances and in their mindset, they may well be able to figure out the details and work out their various deficiencies... which in that sense, I still go back to their not needing to have any of those prior to getting started, but they do need to have $10 that they are not going to need to put into it.
I don't really get the point on why we need to monitor the market while its not actually price is not your main concern while accumulating.
We can do DCA without following the market trends since whatever price is good enough for us to accumulate. It will just bother bother people so better not to pay attention on the market and just pay more attention on your next accumulation.
Usually traders are the one who follow market trends also those people scared enough to accumulate and what they always want to buy at the dip which is actually not always possible to happen.
Consistency is really important here and we don't need any other technical things to consider before buying since we can do it anytime we want.
Assuming the market is positioned towards an downtrenc with repetitive cycle of lower candles pointing downwards wards and then comes a spike that pushes this candle to face upwards. As an experienced investor even with your DCA approach you won't want to buy because it is obviously a bull trap.
Every investor will want to get the best price no matter what. I still stand on the ideology that all investing strategies need monitoring even DCA else an investor with a strategic DCA approach will always make better ROI compared to an investor who just applies DCA blindly
You are practically talking like a trader here, can't you see that we aren't buying into this shit you are talking off?
Why would I be analyzing the market before making a purchase when utilizing the DCA accumulating strategy?
The value of Bitcoin is too cheap now comparing to how much it might get in the future when it has gone up to a million dollar or more, so the earlier you understand that the goal is to build a very good stash of Bitcoin the better, because that's what going to determine how profitable and successful you are going to be in the future, don't expect me to be messing around waiting for a retracement before I buy, no, that's not the perfect way to build a very good stash of Bitcoin.
We likely already realize that brand new bitcoiners should be buying regularly, and surely I have no problem with the idea of trying to buy the dip within the week, for example. Let's say that a beginner has a budget to buy $100 worth of bitcoin every week.. sure maybe every week he looks at the BTC price and tries to buy the dip, yet in the end, he should still be buying $100 worth of bitcoin every week, so in the end, whether he accumulated a few more sats or not may not make a whole hell of a lot of difference, even though psychologically the guy might feel better to attempt to strategize the buying of his $100 worth of bitcoin every week.
Guys have to figure their own advantages, balances and preferences, yet surely newbies are likely way better off to just continue to buy every week (or whatever basis they have) in a persistent, consistent and ongoing way, and the dips might not matter too much even though some newbies might feel better to try to time their weekly purchases...but yeah, if they start to try to get too fancy with their budget or holding off with their weekly buys, then they might be transitioning themselves into a waiting rather than ongoing investment strategy, and surely in the end it is up to them if that is what they want to do, including the choice to employ inferior strategies that likely takes them out of focus...and of course, many times newbies will likely be regularly accumulating for 1-2 cycles or more, yet surely there may be newbies who have greater amounts of discretionary income, and they might want to vary their strategy, yet they still might end up taking themselves off of their focus to accumulate bitcoin if they are holding back a lot of value merely for the purpose of buying dips that may well not end up happening. We have seen that quite a lot in bitcoin's history where guys are waiting and waiting and waiting for dips that do not end up happening and then ending up as a low coiner, no coiner and/or someone who is way too insufficiently/inadequately prepared for UP, even though he had plenty of earlier opportunities to accumulate BTC at lower prices....
and yeah, the essence should also be that for beginners BTC price should not be mattering much if any .. Yeah. no problem watching the BTC price and looking at your BTC portfolio value in terms of price, yet the price should not be deflecting from persistent, consistent and ongoing buying of BTC, especially for the newbie and even for guys who have been accumulating for a while who are stil far from having had accumulated enough or more than enough BTC.
[edited out]
... Except for those who trade and clearly this is a different way and there will be the right time to buy and sell who must always monitor the market in order to create good profits.
The rest of your post was good, but it seems to me that your last sentence ended up undermining everything you said in your post, since we are not talking about trading in this thread.. so who cares what a trader might do...or how a trader/gambler might think about (or calculate) profits or no profits. If we are not trading, we are not thinking about profits or no profits.. we should largely remain focused ongoing, persistent consistent and persistent buying, and sure there is not guarantee to profits, but there is still a bit of a presumption that we are investing in the long term into bitcoin and considering that the long term trajectory of its price is generally up.. even though not guaranteed.. yet we still will have built in presumptions that bitcoin's investment thesis had not been broken based on short term price movements that might sometimes end up quite negative for extended periods of time.
I consider DCA to be way more flexible than you are making it out to be. You could have DCAs that are very aggressive and approach the use of 100% of your disposable income for buying BTC whenever the money comes in or you can make a weekly determination.
You could also set up DCA to be automatic and a very low number such as $10 per week (and maybe your disposable income is $1k per week, so you pick a real low and whimpy number such as $10 per week, or you could pick a more aggressive number. Of course the more aggressive you are, then the more careful you need to be that you don't overdo it and make mistakes and being more aggressive likely justifies having a more solid system of emergency and back up funds in place in order to rescue you if .you go to far in regards to your DCA or if you miscalculate and end up spending outside of your disposable income and from money you need for your expenses.
I always welcome this kind of strategy.
I myself always try to invest the smallest amount of my income in the DCA scheme. Sometimes it is $10, sometimes $20, sometimes $5. So that I will not make any impact on my financial situation.
And I also think that it is wiser to invest more to hold more, not leave funds to cover emergency situations, and then sell some of the bitcoin holdings after facing an emergency situation.
So small fund but for long-term strategy would really helpful as it is also risks management skill.
And We must not forget that-
"
Little drop of water,
Little grains of sand,
Make the mighty ocean,
And the pleasant land"
For sure, if we might presume that you might have had gotten started in bitcoin in early 2015, then you likely are way better off by having a regular, consistent and persistent conservative strategy to accumulate bitcoin as compared to several folk who failed/refused to invest into bitcoin, and so it can be difficult to know your financial circumstances, but surely
$10 per week over nearly 10 years could have ended up paying off pretty well, including maybe having had invested around $5.1k BTC and having around 2.81 BTC. Surely decent results, yet also may well justify that guys should be also attempting to be as aggressive as they are able to be without over doing it.. and surely I am not suggesting that guys necessarily need to sacrifice their current finances in any kind of major ways, yet figuring out ways to be aggressive investing into bitcoin could well end up making decently large size investments, especially since the guy who invested $50 per week as compared to the guy who invested $10 per week might still been able to achieve everything that he needed to achieve, yet his results would have had ended up 5x greater. So for sure each of us make our choices and/or our balances, yet since bitcoin has tended to be an asymmetric bet to the upside (which is still true today), there can be a lot of upside, even with modest and regular investments into it.
It seems very contradictory in the accumulation journey if we just started investing in bitcoin with DCA strategy and quickly switch to another strategy then such a decision will make you inconsistent throughout the long-term accumulation planning.
If we just started investing in bitcoin then we must be able to maintain initial strategy until the next 5 years and after that we can change the strategy that may be more aggressive or buy dips.
Indeed bitcoin investment requires lots of patience for you to be able to hold for a long period of time but, I disagree with your point which says you'll have to want for 5 years before you could switch strategies. Well individually we can accumulate as much bitcoin as our financial muscle could carry and that also implies that we could use the strategy that best suits us. The fact that DCA works really great for you doesn't mean someone else can use lump sum, buy the dip or combination of two or more strategies to accumulate bitcoin. What matters most is that you are accumulating at your own pace without stressing other needs. DCA is undoubtedly one of the greatest strategies i have come across but that doesn't mean it will work for everyone thesame way. Some persons due to realization of missed opportunities in the market after they have been educated about bitcoin they might initally start with DCA strategy but when they have done some deeper research and have become more enthusiasts about bitcoin they may decide to put in all their fiat savings at once by using lump sum and continue with DCA from their monthly wage.
You are correct that there surely could be situations in which guys might switch their BTC accumulation strategies on a few occasions during their earliest stages of investing into bitcoin, and their switch ends up being based on their studying into bitcoin and also studying into their personal finances and weighting the pros and cons of various kinds of approaches and/or allocations, which may well end up in some form of front loading of their investment, and even front loading could be done with some combination of DCA, lump sum and/or buying on dips, and surely it would be best for each person to tailor his approach to his circumstances, to the extent to which he might come to a realization that he has options that might be better employed in a way that is different from his earlier BTC accumulation approach.
It seems to me that ginsan was referring to a situation in which the person had been accumulating for several years, so then his justification for changing his approach had to do with reaching certain quantities of BTC that started to cause him to consider it to become justified to change approaches, but yeah, that would ONLY be one variation that would justify changing investment strategy while still remaining bullish on bitcoin and still either consider ongoing accumulation and/or continuing to hold BTC...to hopefully at some point let the bitcoin investment ride for a while and perhaps start to have advantages of compounding value and various strategies that might start to make sense based on both having had accumulated enough and/or more than enough BTC yet also having some appreciation of having advantages of compounding value which sometimes can take a while for the compounding value part to play out, yet it also seems likely that compounding value becomes more likely on the earlier times investing into bitcoin and so front loading can also end up in regards to having more investment into bitcoin at earlier dates, and like you mentioned (Makus), even if a person may have front loaded his BTC investment, he still might choose to continue to DCA for some period of time that may or may not be exactly known in advance...yet maybe each year or even each quarter he might reassess the terms of the continuation of his DCA strategy.. or the extent that he might include or exclusively move into a buying on the dip strategy... if any of that might make sense for his circumstances.