PROVEN STATISTICAL EVIDENCE - Player 1 (@BlackyJacky):- Total Bets: 180,904
- Wins: 78,285
- Losses: 86,612
- Net Losses: 8,327 bets (86,612 - 78,285)
- Actual Loss Rate: 4.6% (8,327/180,904)
- Expected Loss Rate: 0.5%
- Deviation Beyond Maximum: 7,427 bets
- Additional deviation: 9.3x beyond maximum possible
Player 2 (KingBJ) - Multi-Game Analysis:- Total Bets: 119,156
- Total Wagered: $1,478,400.92
- Expected Loss (0.5%): $7,392
- Actual Loss: $60,000
- Win Rate: 41.46% (49,401 wins)
- Loss Rate: 55.58% (66,227 losses)
- Statistical Deviation: 24.66σ
- Deviation from Expected: 14.12%
I came across your game statistics and had a few questions. I'm not sure if these have already been addressed.
You use 0.5% as the expected loss, but a 0.5% house edge only applies when playing perfect basic strategy under optimal conditions—such as the dealer standing on soft 17, double after split allowed, a 3:2 Blackjack payout, and surrender permitted, among other factors.
Did you play perfect basic strategy, and are these optimal conditions present in Stake Originals Blackjack?Stake advertises the house egde with 0,5% and I played the optimal drawing strategy.
I also noticed that your statistics don’t include the number of pushes and Blackjacks. Since Blackjack pays 3:2, this is a crucial factor that seems to be missing.
1) Pushes are neither a bet win nor a bet loss and therefore are irrelevant for the bets statistics.
2) When you win a Black Jack, then you win 1,5 bets and the 1,5 bets won are in the bets wins / losses statistics.
Additionally, did you use consistent bet sizes over 100k hands? If bet sizes varied, then the total wagered and expected loss become less relevant, as you could have won small bets and lost larger ones, skewing the results.
I lost 4,6% of my bets while I should have lost only 0,5% of my bets and the bet size is irrelevant in my case.
That being said, the probability of a normal win is around 42%, which is quite close to your numbers.
The probability to win a hand is 42%, but at Black Jack the house edge is determined by how many bets you will lose.
Advertised house edge of 0,5% means you will lose 0,5% of your bets long-term.
You mention that a push is neither a win nor a loss in your statistics, but you calculate the loss rate by dividing the losses by the total number of bets. Since pushes aren’t relevant to the calculation, I suggest subtracting the number of pushes from the total bets to get a more accurate result.
A blackjack pays 1.5 times your bet, so I assume the 78,285 wins you refer to already include all the blackjack wins counted at 1.5x. I'm also curious about how you handled splits and doubles. Do you count a won split or double as 2 wins and a loss as 2 losses?
Additionally, the house edge doesn’t calculate the number of bets you will lose; rather, it calculates how much money you would lose over time, which isn’t the same thing.