Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

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You are saying that the price would have to be $200k or greater on January 1, 2027?

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A bit irrelevant comment, but I see three approaches to this time scale:

HoDLers: maintaining their stash, ladder up/down, 200-WMA going up forever. <-- Long-term WIN. <-- I am here.

Risk-takers: selling large chunk @ cycle top (Q4 2025) & re-buying @ cycle bottom (Q4 2026). <-- Risky BIG-WIN. <-- LFC is here.

Mindrusters: selling all @ local bottom ("Zed's dead baby, Zed's dead."). <-- Certain LOSS. <-- Hopefully, no WOer is here.

I've been in the same category as you but I missed two cycle tops due to my permabullishness and optimism and actual Bitcoin price never reached my price target. Grin

So I'm kinda HOLDer/LFC wannabe guy. Therefore this year I will be selling a fraction of my stash and my sales won't be bitcoin price based they're going to be time based. I will start selling in chunks starting something like late summer. Otherwise, I feel like I'm going to miss the top once again. Grin

P.S.BTW I'm more than sure that LFC never sold his entire stash. I guess we could be talking about 20-30% of his coins.

There was so much good advice in this thread, since two cycle tops ago.
Verdict: Aiming at cycle tops (almost) never works out, but you can't do overly wrong on the way to the top.
Classic StochRSI, RSI, trading volumes, funding rates etc. shoudl give you a rough guide to identify incoming local tops.
Just a healthy mix of long- and shortterm indices, just as clear (or: less foggy) as when identifying cycle bottoms.