I don't think this match has any concern or connection on Rodri, because he is still on his sick bed and Vini will be on the pitch. The match means a lot for both teams not for only City, because City has no reputation to lose but Madrid will lose their reputation for being kicked out of UCL in group stage. Madrid has the strength to win this match and City looks weaker than they were in previous season. You should bet on City to win the match if you have the confidence in them.
The drama of Ballon d'Or happened months ago, and Rodri got a serious injury in early of season that costs him rest of season. This playoff pair between Real Madrid and Manchester City will not have participation of Rodri, and it's not like a revenge of Vinicius Junior against Rodri too.
Vinicius will fight in two matches with his teammates for a ticket to a next stage of Champions League, and to win another Champions League title. So far he has won 2 UEFA Champions League titles and is going to chase a third one. Winning Champions League title in years without World Cup or Euro tournaments are vey big points for winning individual award like Ballon d'Or.