Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Cycle slowdown theorists, which proliferated on the *tube, have a bit of the problem:
If we 'slow down' to just 2x this cycle, but will be on a 70% downturn afterwards (from $137.8K to $41.3K) as projected by a relatively slow decline in this parameter (from 94 to 84% to 77% in the past and, I guess, 70% is expected next time), this would mean that we would NEVER get back to that $137.8K number as long as upward bounces are declining faster in proportion to slowly declining plunges.
Basically, to avoid the negative scenario shown above, something got to give: either upside slow downs would not happen or declines would have to be shallower.
TL;DR: slowdown theories are bs, most likely
If we 'slow down' to just 2x this cycle, but will be on a 70% downturn afterwards (from $137.8K to $41.3K) as projected by a relatively slow decline in this parameter (from 94 to 84% to 77% in the past and, I guess, 70% is expected next time), this would mean that we would NEVER get back to that $137.8K number as long as upward bounces are declining faster in proportion to slowly declining plunges.
Basically, to avoid the negative scenario shown above, something got to give: either upside slow downs would not happen or declines would have to be shallower.
TL;DR: slowdown theories are bs, most likely
Of course, so many folks seem so interested about tops, which we know can be all over the place, and surely greater corrections become more justifiable and expected depending on how exponential and/or explosive the top becomes in terms of both distance (how far up) and how long it takes to get there. And it becomes harder to try to narrow down both of those in advance in order to thereby arrive at some kind of a reasonable speculation about what the leg down would end up being.
Surely, another thing is that if we have a lot of violent corrections on the way up, then there could be further justifications that the up is able continue to the extent that buy support is then able to keep up rather than getting scared away. I probably should have had participated in the Trump thread for the 30, 60, 90, but like you did was 180 as well... and surely if we are looking at a whole cycle it might be good to throw a 365 in there, too.
But my guesses about prices at those various points would be ranges rather than numbers, so then if I picked a number out of each of the ranges, then i suppose I would pick a middle number. It still might be a good exercise, even if not being part of that contest...and probably my most interest about the various tops relates to how much it ends up pulling up the 200-WMA and perhaps how much distance is between the spot BTC price as compared to where the 200-WMA is at any of the price/time points.
Historically, we have had the spot price going between 35% below the 200 WMA (November 2022) and perhaps up to 23x above (December 2013), and I am not sure if those are too extreme, even though the down is fairly recent, but the tops had been smaller, like with the 200-WMA 15x higher than spot in 2017 and only 4.5x higher in early 2021 (the late 2021 was only about 3x higher).
Even though distance of the spot price from 200-WMA can sometimes give hints regarding how frothy or depressed the BTC price might be, the BTC price can still keep going in the same frothy or depressed direction for longer than expected.. but still maybe we might figure out some kinds of personal actions whether to sell some cornz or whether to buy some cornz based on these kinds of seeming BTC spot price extremes..when they happen or if they happen.. and yeah it could become the case that BTC prices no longer deviate as far from the 200-WMA..
Bitcoin Dominance 64
Shitcoiner? Relevance? Retarded?
I don't see any reason to be nice to bear talking-points or to spend a lot of time trying to figure out a nice way to say something that I might disagree with. Sure sometimes I might end up changing my mind, but I cannot see that I am overly going into personal attacks beyond just making some emphases from time to time. If I say, "your ideas are dumb or ridiculous or overly pessimistic or you are talking your book" that is not a personal attack even though I might be pointing out some things that might not end up being true, but it would not imply that I am arguing in bad faith merely because I am using some strong language to express my from time to time disagreements.
Yeah, that's maybe one of the big differencies between both of us, i am most always trying to be nice. But this is 100% about my personal feelings. I know, usual (normie) habits are people being "nice" and acting overly careful not to offend anyone are just anxious to come off as a mean persons, trying to avoid conflicts because they want to be liked by everbody, to benefit somehow. I'm not that type.
If we are on the interwebs we cannot necessarily expect to be liked, and some folks are quite irrational and even purposefully mean if they see any weakness, and they might not even need to see a weakness in order to use one of your previous disclosures against you in some way or another that might be sensitive to you, so then if the issue (or fact) is sensitive, then it might not be good to bring it up if you are not able to accept some members potentially using it against you.
It can be good if we might be able to see some humor too, and sometimes I have gotten myself into some battles that I would have rather not gotten into, and sometimes we just need some thick skin in terms of some of the mean things that people will sometimes say, or maybe even find a way to find humor in some of the comments.
And, when it comes to arguing (making points, debating), from my perspective, sometimes it is better to argue with a bit of vigor and perhaps even a few zingers thrown in, and you surely are capable of doing that, since I have seen you battle with some of the thread trolls from time to time or to point out disingenuous arguments... and maybe some of the low blows can be just thrown in for emphasis like: "your mamma probably did not know how to raise you." or whatever might be a good extra piece to just throw in there, that may or may not fit, depending on circumstances.
Sure, it's always heartwarming when one is feeling liked, but i like myself enough to not be dependent on such feelings. I wasn't always like that, but i'm glad i was able to step out of this kind of dependencies. Also, like blaming others for my bad feelings. I am very, very happy (if not blessed) that i was able to let that go.
So even if you would rage at my words, i know there's a way for me to understand your point(s), as long as i don't block my lil selfie from trying to.
So even if you would rage at my words, i know there's a way for me to understand your point(s), as long as i don't block my lil selfie from trying to.
I have times that I have to step away from the computer too... or maybe not respond to certain posts when the points start becoming too repetitive, and frequently there can be quite a bit of discretion regarding both how much you are selling, when you are selling and whether (or how) you should post about it.
If I do something controversial (or outside of my regular system), I might not post about it, or maybe I will choose to post about it a few months after I already did it, whether I might call it a mistake or a bet that did not pay off, or even sometimes a bet does end up paying off, even though surely many times we are not really emphasizing trading in this thread, we know some members do it, and some of them likely make decently large (leverage) and even dumb bets but they don't want to say anything until some later point...
and likely many of us get irritated by the down predictors who might say,
"I just sold 5% of my stash at $99k, and look right now we are at $95.8k, and I am going to buy 1/2 back at $91k and the other half at $87.5k, you should sell some of yours, too.. blah blah blah."
Those kinds of posts can become irritating, and maybe even worse when the person ends up being correct... and then they say, "I told you so." Every time we have been in a bear market we end up going through a lot of that, and the bears will then end up being correct, contrary to the wishes of a HODLer (or an accumulator). So what am I supposed to say? "You dummy." That seems sufficiently appropriate, even if they end up getting their swing trade right. Seems like picking up nickels in front of a steamroller, and yeah great when it works out.
Enuff of the emo-talk now.
I consider myself still bullish. The recent selling/rebuying was a successful attempt to get a fractional portion of "moar" Bitcoin, which i rarely pull off, and this time it was so clear in the charts. I still could have put all of the money into corn again, but i needed some of it, also because that bad story about the delayed court trial and following payout. But who knows, if we really get down to $85k, which i don't think will happen, there's more on the corn side for me. Future fiat gains from that trade would be taxable, though, according to the current laws, which may change (just like it did three years ago).
TLDR: It's all good. I'm fine, and you're OK too.
I consider myself still bullish. The recent selling/rebuying was a successful attempt to get a fractional portion of "moar" Bitcoin, which i rarely pull off, and this time it was so clear in the charts. I still could have put all of the money into corn again, but i needed some of it, also because that bad story about the delayed court trial and following payout. But who knows, if we really get down to $85k, which i don't think will happen, there's more on the corn side for me. Future fiat gains from that trade would be taxable, though, according to the current laws, which may change (just like it did three years ago).
TLDR: It's all good. I'm fine, and you're OK too.
[edited out]
I've been in the same category as you but I missed two cycle tops due to my permabullishness and optimism and actual Bitcoin price never reached my price target. 
So I'm kinda HOLDer/LFC wannabe guy. Therefore this year I will be selling a fraction of my stash and my sales won't be bitcoin price based they're going to be time based. I will start selling in chunks starting something like late summer. Otherwise, I feel like I'm going to miss the top once again. P.S.BTW I'm more than sure that LFC never sold his entire stash. I guess we could be talking about 20-30% of his coins.
Well if you are just selling parts (let's say 20% to 30%) in order to have cash and to spend it, then that is one thing.
If you are selling to buy back cheaper that is another thing.
You could have a kind of mixed motive in which you are selling and you don't care if the BTC price corrects or not, but if it corrects more than 30% (or whatever level you choose and perhaps various increments below that target number), then you will stagger buy backs for those lower target areas. If the BTC price does not drop to a sufficient threshold level, then you are not buying back and you are willing to live with the fact that you sold some of your corn and you will have less in the future. So then the main question would relate to whether you really found an appropriate balance that you could live with either way.
people are quite cautious and it suits them to take profits in the range of $90k to $100k
That would be dumb for almost anyone...even someone who had been in bitcoin for a while. I am not going to suggest that people don't do dumb things, including giving their coins to Michael and Larry.
If you only have 10 BTC and follow the current pattern - sell at $100k, buy as close to $90k as possible and you will profit around $100k every time the cycle repeats - imagine those who do this with thousands or tens of thousands of BTC, easy money, right?If you have excess coins that you are willing to sell and take a chance, that it fine. If your goal is to have 21 BTC and you only have 10 BTC, then it is probably better to just keep stacking, since selling is not a good way to increase your BTC stash. The best way to increase your BTC stash is to just keep buying - hopefully having an income that comes from other sources besides trying to trade with price moves that might not happen.
Tentatively speaking if the person with [img=https://dcabtc.com?sd=2017-02-07&sda=custom&f=weekly&d=8_years&ac=20000&c=true]http://10 BTC had taken 8 years of stacking at about $200 per week to get to his current stash size[/img], it is quite likely that within the next 2 years he would invest another $20k and maybe he could reach 10.2 BTC, and he may well be in a very similar position as the person with 21 BTC today with his 10.2 BTC, merely based on the expected ongoing movement of the 200-WMA to the upside. We cannot know for sure, but it seems to me to be way better to preserve what you have and to keep staking your $20 per week rather than gambling with your hard earned BTC.
And even in your own situation, Lucius, are you doing better by fucking around with trading rather than just sticking with a more straight-forward and strict DCAing approach?
Just think a person who had been investing $100 per week since your forum registration date in July 2015, would have had invested $50k, yet he would have close to 24 BTC, which surely is not a bad place to be based on the amount invested.
Of course if you had a higher or lower budget, we could adjust it according to your budget, but surely not easy to beat even a strict DCA and/or HODL approach over the past 9.5 years, even with a modest budget.
- and at the same time all these stories about BTC strategic reserves may indicate that someone behind the scenes is pulling the strings - because if some central banks are going to buy BTC, then it is in their interest for the market to cool down and possibly for the trend to reverse.
How you going to do that when we are in the middle of a bull market?
you are expecting trends to reverse here? In bat country?
Oh my!!!!!
Are you new here?
~snip~
Do you think Bitcoin is more powerful than central banks that print money whenever they want and whenever they need it? It is very easy to create FUD, especially if you own most of the mainstream media and if most people behave like sheep following their shepherd - who in this case is one of the most powerful people in the world. It means nothing to them that some of us think we are in a bull market.you are expecting trends to reverse here? In bat country?
Oh my!!!!!
Are you new here?
~snip~
Bitcoin is likely more powerful than you are making it out to be including various network effects continuing to build and bitcoin was designed for these kinds of scenarios that seem to be currently playing out.
It sounds like you might be trying to trade upon some of your beliefs by failing/refusing to prepare for up and so you are preparing for down? or are you prepared for either BTC price direction?
I understand that you are suggesting that there might be some value to take some BTC off the table in this price range, but how much are you taking off the table? How much did you have on the table in the first place? If you have been whimpy the whole time and fucking around with trading the last 9.5 years since you have been registered on the forum, then you might not even have much in bitcoin in the first place? too busy trading and having nothing to show for it.
So then if we are not in a bull market, but instead in a flat or a potentially downward spiral, then is that how you are preparing yourself for the future?
Personally, I think that the infinite money printer go burr can ONLY go so far, and I really doubt that it is capable of suppressing the BTC price as much as you seem to believe that it is able to suppress the BTC price (if that is the current objective of the powers that be). Throughout bitcoin's history we have heard about governments going against bitcoin, so you seem to be suggesting that the Trump dipshit is playing 5D chess in which he is actually attacking bitcoin while he is making it look like he is not in order that he can rug pull us? That could be, but I doubt that his hand is as strong as you claim it to be, even if everything that you are saying (or implying) is true.
Hopefully, for your own good, you are prepared for either BTC price direction rather than to be cheering for down that seems less likely than up, and since you are so passionate about down, we might be able to figure out some kind of bet.. what kind of a time-line should we choose? For 2025 or within the next few months? What direction would you like to bet down or up or both? For example, $70k before $120k?
I personally hate to get into too many specifics in regards to price predictions, even though I have a tentative working theory that the BTC spot price is not likely to go below 25% above the 200-WMA while we are in a bull market, yet the 200-WMA is ONLY $44k, so 25% above it is $55k.. so that is pretty damned low compared with the current price, and that would be expecting as the worst case scenario while we remain in a bull market... sure we could have some conditions that knock us out of a bull market, right?
Personally, I doubt that getting knocked out of a bull market happens so easily, and I doubt that it is valuable use of time to explore such bearish speculation.. but my own holdings (and psychology) is already prepared for either BTC price direction, yet my idea for a bull market (and that we are still in one) is that the odds for up are greater than the odds for down, yet at some point I may well concede that we have gone into a bear market, yet I have tended to realize that we are in a bear market 6 or months after the top, so I am not claiming to know when we are in a bear market and my own assumption is that we are in a bull market until we no longer are...which can take a while to figure out..which means, I already admit that I tend to be a delayed indicator in my own willing to concede that we have gone into a bear market when such thing ends up happening.
My own assessment is that we have been in a bull market since December 2022, yet such bull market was not really realized until either mid 2023 or maybe moreso by October 2023... ... and so sure there might have had been some questionings of whether we were still in a bull market since October 2023, but that little whimpy 32% correction (from $74k to $49.5k) between March and August 2024 was merely a correction within an already existing bull market.
So the punchline might be what are you proposing that might be greater than just your fucking around with trying to trading dee cornz, spreading FUDz, and hoping for down that may or may not end up happening?
Sure the ETFs can start to experience negative flows and Michael Saylor might start losing money and various countries, states and companies might stop talking about their proposed strategic bitcoin reserves...and so yeah, it is possible that some of the uppity price pressures on BTC might end up drying up (even though they currently are not).. and so then we end up going more and more into a correction period that ends up transitioning into a bear market.
How long is our current correction period going to last a few days, weeks, months or longer?
We could talk about whether there are any new ATHs in 2025? in the event that you want to proclaim that our BTC price high for this cycle is already in with our January 19/20 price bounce to $109,356.
What do you got or are you just going to keep throwing out nonsense proclamations without specifics asserting that we may well not really be in a bull market?, which does that mean we are in a bear? or merely a temporary correction within a bull?
Or you are just throwing out whatever speculation and trying to see what sticks? If you end up being correct, then you look like a genius, right?
What are some of the specifics of your various theories? if you have any?