~snip~

If you have excess coins that you are willing to sell and take a chance, that it fine. If your goal is to have 21 BTC and you only have 10 BTC, then it is probably better to just keep stacking, since selling is not a good way to increase your BTC stash. The best way to increase your BTC stash is to just keep buying - hopefully having an income that comes from other sources besides trying to trade with price moves that might not happen.

Tentatively speaking if the person with 10 BTC had taken 8 years of stacking at about $200 per week to get to his current stash size, it is quite likely that within the next 2 years he would invest another $20k and maybe he could reach 10.2 BTC, and he may well be in a very similar position as the person with 21 BTC today with his 10.2 BTC, merely based on the expected ongoing movement of the 200-WMA to the upside.   We cannot know for sure, but it seems to me to be way better to preserve what you have and to keep staking your $20 per week rather than gambling with your hard earned BTC.

And even in your own situation, Lucius, are you doing better by fucking around with trading rather than just sticking with a more straight-forward and strict DCAing approach?

Just think a person who had been investing $100 per week since your forum registration date in July 2015, would have had invested $50k, yet he would have close to 24 BTC, which surely is not a bad place to be based on the amount invested.

Of course if you had a higher or lower budget, we could adjust it according to your budget, but surely not easy to beat even a strict DCA and/or HODL approach over the past 9.5 years, even with a modest budget.


Bitcoin is likely more powerful than you are making it out to be including various network effects continuing to build and bitcoin was designed for these kinds of scenarios that seem to be currently playing out.

It sounds like you might be trying to trade upon some of your beliefs by failing/refusing to prepare for up and so you are preparing for down?  or are you prepared for either BTC price direction?

I understand that you are suggesting that there might be some value to take some BTC off the table in this price range, but how much are you taking off the table?  How much did you have on the table in the first  place?  If you have been whimpy the whole time and fucking around with trading the last 9.5 years since you have been registered on the forum, then you might not even have much in bitcoin in the first place?  too busy trading and having nothing to show for it.

So then if we are not in a bull market, but instead in a flat or a potentially downward spiral, then is that how you are preparing yourself for the future?

Personally, I think that the infinite money printer go burr can ONLY go so far, and I really doubt that it is capable of suppressing the BTC price as much as you seem to believe that it is able to suppress the BTC price (if that is the current objective of the powers that be).  Throughout bitcoin's history we have heard about governments going against bitcoin, so you seem to be suggesting that the Trump dipshit is playing 5D chess in which he is actually attacking bitcoin while he is making it look like he is not in order that he can rug pull us?  That could be, but I doubt that his hand is as strong as you claim it to be, even if everything that you are saying (or implying) is true.

Hopefully, for your own good, you are prepared for either BTC price direction rather than to be cheering for down that seems less likely than up, and since you are so passionate about down, we might be able to figure out some kind of bet.. what kind of a time-line should we choose?  For 2025 or within the next few months?  What direction would you like to bet down or up or both?  For example, $70k before $120k?  

I personally hate to get into too many specifics in regards to price predictions, even though I have a tentative working theory that the BTC spot price is not likely to go below 25% above the 200-WMA while we are in a bull market, yet the 200-WMA is ONLY $44k, so 25% above it is $55k.. so that is pretty damned low compared with the current price, and that would be expecting as the worst case scenario while we remain in a bull market... sure we could have some conditions that knock us out of a bull market, right?

Personally, I doubt that getting knocked out of a bull market happens so easily, and I doubt that it is valuable use of time to explore such bearish speculation.. but my own holdings (and psychology) is already prepared for either BTC price direction, yet my idea for a bull market (and that we are still in one) is that the odds for up are greater than the odds for down, yet at some point I may well concede that we have gone into a bear market, yet I have tended to realize that we are in a bear market 6 or months after the top, so I am not claiming to know when we are in a bear market and my own assumption is that we are in a bull market until we no longer are...which can take a while to figure out..which means, I already admit that I tend to be a delayed indicator in my own willing to concede that we have gone into a bear market when such thing ends up happening.

My own assessment is that we have been in a bull market since December 2022, yet such bull market was not really realized until either mid 2023 or maybe moreso by October 2023... ... and so sure there might have had been some questionings of whether we were still in a bull market since October 2023, but that little whimpy 32% correction (from $74k to $49.5k) between March and August 2024 was merely a correction within an already existing bull market.

So the punchline  might be what are you proposing that might be greater than just your fucking around with trying to trading dee cornz, spreading FUDz, and hoping for down that may or may not end up happening?

Sure the ETFs can start to experience negative flows and Michael Saylor might start losing money and various countries, states and companies might stop talking about their proposed strategic bitcoin reserves...and so yeah, it is possible that some of the uppity price pressures on BTC might end up drying up (even though they currently are not).. and so then we end up going more and more into a correction period that ends up transitioning into a bear market.  

How long is our current correction period going to last a few days, weeks, months or longer?  

We could talk about whether there are any new ATHs in 2025? in the event that you want to proclaim that our BTC price high for this cycle is already in with our January 19/20 price bounce to $109,356.  

What do you got or are you just going to keep throwing out nonsense proclamations without specifics asserting that we may well not really be in a bull market?, which does that mean we are in a bear? or merely a temporary correction within a bull?  

Or you are just throwing out whatever speculation and trying to see what sticks?  If you end up being correct, then you look like a genius, right?  

What are some of the specifics of your various theories?  if you have any?