Quote from: Tamaperdana on Today at 07:36:27 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 10, 2025, 04:46:54 PM

[edited out]

Yes, I also agree with your assumption. Because quite a lot of bitcoin traders cannot resist the temptation to take more than 10% of their bitcoins for trading. Maybe it could be said that it would still be better if the trader carried out his trades on the spot market. Because if someone trades bitcoin on the spot market, I don't think that person will lose as long as they are patient and wait. Because the price of bitcoin will definitely continue to rise again. However, if trade bitcoin futures, in my opinion this is what endangers bitcoin traders. Because in futures trading, even if you trade Bitcoin, the risk is still very big. Because when trading futures there is liquidity that you have to be aware of. So trading bitcoin in futures can still make us lose money. So I personally also really don't recommend trading bitcoin in futures. But if you trade bitcoin on the spot market, I don't think this is a big deal. So what do you think about my assumptions?

I hate to get into discussing a bunch of financial instruments that can also be used to bet on bitcoin, since when I was speaking about the negatives of trading BTC, I was referring to trading spot bitcoin. So even if you trade spot bitcoin, you are going to run risks of being out of the market when you should be in the market, and taking chances to get more bitcoin by selling, when the more assured way to get more bitcoin is to merely continue buying until you have enough.

So I was not referring to financial instruments, which largely are attempts to leverage, and potentially to lose even more than 100%. When you invest in bitcoin at spot the most you could lose is 100%, and perhaps on long chances that bitcoin goes to zero - especially if you are competent in securing and protecting your bitcoin.

Whenever you bring in additional leverage by margin trading, futures, options, then you potentially bring additional risks and costs, even though some of the instruments can be used to hedge your trading, if you go down the road of trading... yet with straight-forward bitcoin investing, you do not need to learn about the various tradeoffs of the various instruments, and bitcoin is risky enough without the need to add additional risk - even though guys can spend time learning about those kinds of instruments and take whatever risks they like, even though to me (and perhaps many other longer term bitcoiners), it seems a bit stupid to be fucking around trying to trade bitcoin or to put various financial instruments with bitcoin, since bitcoin is already amongst the best of investments, if not the best of investments already available, in which straight-forward stacking of sats has brought really great returns for a lot of folks, especially the longer that they have been in such as a couple of cycles or more.

Part of the reason that I frequently describe some kind of a limitation on trading as being 10% the size of your bitcoin investment is because it seems to me that guys should spend a lot of time on bitcoin and getting their shit together with bitcoin, including making sure that they have good grasps of their cashflow management, and perhaps even that they are able to get their bitcoin stash to a decent size (priority) before getting involved in shitcoins or trading or using various kinds of financial instruments to attempt to enhance their bitcoin stash. Sure there are going to be some folks who are able to come to bitcoin with an already decent amount of capital and/or even decently high discretionary income, so they may have more room to work with when it comes to playing around with trading, shitcoins and/or financial instruments.. and also we are all adults (even though there are a bunch of snot-nosed 14-year olds in here too.. hahahahahaha), so we can make choices about how much risk that we might want to take.

Even if snot-nosed 14-year olds might have more difficulties assessing the risk, a decent number of them still would prefer not to lose money, and would prefer to make money, but they frequently will tend to have so much desire to make the money quickly to be able to show off to their peers, that they will frequently fail to recognize/appreciate the amount of risk they are entering and that they would likely be way better off with a more prudent approach that focuses on largely building wealth.. and perhaps exercising some restraint with how much of their holdings they are going to trade with or engage with shitcoins and/or to employ financial instruments. I surely am not against learning, having fun and experimenting, but there seems little reason to put large amounts of our holdings at risk in order to accomplish those objective, because if we are truly good at employing various risks, we can still build up our capital with smaller amounts of value while we are learning and perhaps after several years of practice of winning and losing, we might be able to show that we actually are good at it and that we are able to make a lot of profits even when starting from a relatively small amount of value... yet an overwhelming majority (perhaps in the 95%+ arena are not able to beat a straight-forward BTC accumulation strategy, even very smart people.

I also think that anyone attempting to limit their gambling/trading/shitcoining to less than 10% of the size of their bitcoin, they need to be disciplined about that and not be cheating. So each time they have income come in, then they can put 90% into bitcoin and 10% into their shitcoin/trading stash, and then they should keep the funds separate and not be moving funds back and forth.. and then just work with what they have in their trading fund, and if they can build their trading fund faster than their bitcoin, then they are doing quite well, and hopefully they are not going to be tempted to take out of their bitcoin fund just because they had been having a string of successes in their trading/shitcoining fund.

Quote from: Tamaperdana on Today at 07:36:27 AM

And regarding the timing of investing in bitcoin, everyone has different time periods and goals. So we really can't equate this. I only provide information about the ideal time to invest in Bitcoin according to my assumptions. Because as you said, the most important thing is that we don't pull the lever too quickly to sell bitcoin. And this is something that we must pay attention to and implement in the bitcoin investments that we carry out.

It seems to me that the best time to get started in bitcoin was yesterday, and the second best time to get started in bitcoin is today.

Once a guy gets started, then he just has to keep in buying through lump sum, DCA and/or buying on dips in a persistent, consistent, ongoing, regular and perhaps even aggressive way until he gets to a point of having enough BTC or more than enough BTC, an surely it can take a long time for any normies to be able to get to a status of having enough BTC or more than enough BTC, unless such normies are able to frontload their investment into bitcoin. Anyone frontloading their investment into bitcoin are likely going to be able to get to a status of overaccumulation in a faster way, so then once anyone reaches a status of overaccumulation, then they have more options regarding how to manage their bitcoin... .yet they have to get to such overaccumulation status first and not mis-assess when they got there, since some folks are going to conclude that they have reached overaccumulation status and they are wrong in their assessment of their own circumstances...but yeah, each person has to figure out these matters for themselves and in accordance with their own 9 individual factors.

Quote from: Barikui1 on Today at 08:19:04 AM

Quote from: fikrett on Today at 08:00:18 AM

Quote from: Richbased on February 10, 2025, 07:57:19 PM

What is the need of taking profits overtime? what will you be using the profits to do? those are the questions and projecting 20-30 years will depend on the age of the hodler and if they have also reach their target of accumulation. The only time i can consider to take profits from my investment is after i must have accumulated to my satisfaction and have made a lot of profits which i know that if a take the profits i will invest it on something productive but taking profits and still keep it in Fiats or some stablecoins will make no sense at all so before intending to take profits you should be able to have a concrete plan of what to do with the profits you have gotten from your investments.

Profit is taken either when it's needed or when the target is reached.
Other than that - surely, one should hodl more and stay happy doing so.

Talking about the bold words in your statement, honestly it's mostly traders that talks like this, you don't take profit from your holdings because you are in need, that's why source of income and an emergency funds are in place to sorts out your financial needs, your Bitcoin holdings is an asset you hold for a very long period of time in other to change your financial status for ever, not what you just hold and decide to withdraw because it's been needed to sort some financial needs, it's only traders and those that Normally sell their Bitcoin for minimal gains that thinks and speaks that way.

Yep.. a lot of people have gotten price exposure to bitcoin and even accumulated decent amounts of bitcoin, and then they end up selling too much of their bitcoin too soon... which can be quite problematic financially and/or psychologically. Many of them either never get back to their previous BTC stack size or they end up having to spend way more money (than the amount that they cashed out) to get back to the stash size that they used to have.

Think about someone who 8-10 years ago, might have had around 21 bitcoin for an average cost of $1k per BTC.. so they had invested around $21k into bitcoin with 21 BTC. Not a bad place to be, right? And let's say that in 2017, they sold 2/3 of their BTC stash around $5k since they had gotten 5x profits (their stash is then worth $105k.. so they end up with $70k (from selling 14 BTC) and they still have 7 BTC. Not bad, right? But still not as good as if they had largely hung onto their BTC, and maybe they would have been able to buy back some of their BTC, and maybe not. Maybe they invest some of their $70k? Maybe they spend some of it? and Maybe they save some of it to buy BTC back cheaper? Yet the BTC did not really end up getting cheaper. It went up to $19.6k and then came back down, but did not fall back below $5k for very long, so it is hard to hypothesize such person would have had been able to buy much if any of the sold amount cheaper.. even though, sure it is possible.. it is doubtful except in some kind of a fantasy retrospective framing of the matter about what "could have had happened."

I am not even opposed to taking some profits along the way, just be careful about shaving off large portions of your BTC stash.. also in this particular situation, I doubt that such person was even close to being at a point of having enough or more than enough BTC - not based on 2017 BTC prices, but surely a stash of 21 BTC would have been looking pretty nice when the BTC price was at $19.6k-ish.. which would have had been $411.6k, and surely it makes it difficult to figure out how such person who had ONLY invested $21k and who had gotten up to 21 BTC would be able to resist selling too much too soon...unless he has some kind of a system to keep accumulating BTC until he actually is in a position to calculate that he has more than enough.. rather than that he just has a lot and wants to get some pleasures from what he has, when he still had not reached a point of over-accumulation.

Surely, now in 2025, it may well be the case that the same guy would be able to more reasonably assess that his 21 BTC would be at a status of over-accumulation (in the event that he would have had been able to hold most of them (or to continue to accumulate)) until now.

Quote from: avp2306 on Today at 12:06:08 PM

Quote from: Barikui1 on Today at 08:19:04 AM

Quote from: fikrett on Today at 08:00:18 AM

Quote from: Richbased on February 10, 2025, 07:57:19 PM

What is the need of taking profits overtime? what will you be using the profits to do? those are the questions and projecting 20-30 years will depend on the age of the hodler and if they have also reach their target of accumulation. The only time i can consider to take profits from my investment is after i must have accumulated to my satisfaction and have made a lot of profits which i know that if a take the profits i will invest it on something productive but taking profits and still keep it in Fiats or some stablecoins will make no sense at all so before intending to take profits you should be able to have a concrete plan of what to do with the profits you have gotten from your investments.

Profit is taken either when it's needed or when the target is reached.
Other than that - surely, one should hodl more and stay happy doing so.

Talking about the bold words in your statement, honestly it's mostly traders that talks like this, you don't take profit from your holdings because you are in need, that's why source of income and an emergency funds are in place to sorts out your financial needs, your Bitcoin holdings is an asset you hold for a very long period of time in other to change your financial status for ever, not what you just hold and decide to withdraw because it's been needed to sort some financial needs, it's only traders and those that Normally sell their Bitcoin for minimal gains that thinks and speaks that way.

Actually I don't see any problem for doing it especially if you are on need of immediate funds. I understand that we need to have build a emergency funds so that we can cover those emergency situation that we might encounter in future. But not everyone could set this up as fast as we think since there are people starting their journey pay attention first their Bitcoin accumulation and later on their emergency funds set up will come late.

What's important is the lesson they learn that emergency funds is really important on their journey, so that next time they would never heavily got affected if there's worse situation happened since they are more prepared for second time around.

People could start over again and they should do better decision next time to succeed and make sure that there's no other things would bother on their next accumulation phase.

You seem to be saying that if a person fucks up and they do not have enough funds in their back up funds and emergency funds, then it is o.k. to take from their bitcoin, which you are correct, but why should any of us engage in such sloppy cashflow management that we ever get ourselves into such a situation of fucking up. Sure it is likely that a lot of us will make plenty of mistakes than others, and surely we should want our mistakes to be small enough that we do not end up having to dip into our bitcoin investment, yet sure at the same time if we get ourselves into such a situation that we have to dip into our bitcoin, then we have no choice, and I would not proclaim that there is nothing wrong with that, but if we are either dipping into our BTC or even if we are having to dip into our emergency funds based on our own bad cashflow management, then surely we are fucking up in pretty strong ways, and surely something seems to be wrong with that.. even though each person is free to engage in as much recklessness and sloppiness as they like. It seems problematic to proclaim that there is nothing wrong with people fucking up, especially when they can put systems in place so that they are not likely to fuck up and if they do fuck up they are fucking up in minor ways rather than either cashing into their bitcoin or their emergency fund when there wasn't any actual emergency, except for the emergency that they created for themselves.