Quote from: Gachapin on Today at 01:40:01 PM

Quote from: Paashaas on Today at 07:36:12 AM

I don't care what people think about Trump, tariffs, Greenland, Panama canal ore turning Gaza into a lavish riviera of the Middle-East.

Only thing i want is that Trump keeps his word and start a Bitcoin reserve that will pump the coin to $300,000 within 8 months.

That will force other countries to do the same... 300k will be cheap then.

It will also be probably the end the usual cycles... no more 80% crashes to scoop up cheap coins...

Few countries (especially the USA) are not engaged in thoughts about making money responsible, and focusing on bitcoin. The USA seems to be somewhat focused on fucking around with distractions, ways to pump their bags and ways to cause it to appear that bitcoin is part of some pack that makes USA more responsible while various fractions of the government continue to figure out ways to disparately reward their buddies within such future possible projects (also meaning to continue with attempts to continue practicing various Cantillon-type rewardings while having bitcoin as a kind of symbolic backdrop). Sure some of us might be still wondering the extent to which bitcoin is only partially symbolic or if there might be some actual meat in any of the various legislative attempts, and it could be that some of the states or corporate adoptions of bitcoin might inspire the USA government (or force them) to be more responsible than what they want to be.

Quote from: WatChe on Today at 05:18:51 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 10, 2025, 08:54:28 PM

Well yeah I think that you have largely described the terms even though the amount seems so small to almost be insignificant. To clarify, the outside date would be on or before December 31, 2026 - probably using midnight UTC on Bitstamp as our reference.

Not everyone is rich like you JJG. Where I live it's a very decent amount. You were asking for 10:1 odds, I happily gave it to you. Anything pending at my end?

It seems that we are getting pretty damned close, and that we don't have any material differences in regards to what we seem to be agreeing, and yeah, I suppose if you consider the amount to be significant, and you are willing to stand behind it, then I have no reason to object on grounds that the bet is too small, even though you may have heard me describe that back in the olden days perhaps between 2014 and early 2020, I would frequently suggest that no coiners get the fuck off zero and start to invest $10 per week into bitcoin; however, after March 2020, I started to recommend $100 per week, even though surely sometimes I still do revert to making recommendations for the the lower level amounts since it is true that there are folks who struggle to garner up even $10 per week, yet for western buyers I tend to gravitate towards $100 per week unless I already know that they are struggling in very material ways to garner up any kind of discretionary income to have available on a weekly basis. Another thing is that many of us surely realize that a certain value comes from attempting to be more aggressive in regards to bitcoin investing rather than less aggressive, and March 2020 should have had revealed a certain amount of information regarding 1) how fucked fiat systems are, 2) how desperate they are and 3) how likely fiat/debt based systems are going to ongoingly pervertedly debase the dollar (and other forms of fiat) in such way that bitcoin seems to be quite a logical (perhaps the most logical) safety boat off of that sinking ship system.... and so all of those revealed matters from March 2020, should help us to justify trying to invest as much as we can into bitcoin without recking ourselves, which surely can be $100 per week for some folks, but still understandably, other folks might ONLY be able to garner $10-ish per week.

Quote from: WatChe on Today at 05:18:51 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 10, 2025, 08:54:28 PM

So, maybe we should use round numbers? You would put 0.0003 BTC into the fund (potentially held by hisslyness), and I would put 0.00003 into the fund. We could add a bit for transaction fees (or if hisslyness tells us that he has some kind of a fee or a minimum amount, then he could tell us about that.. or maybe if we each add 1% to the amount we send hisslyness that will cover any fees), yet we also could send our amounts to hisslyness in a lightning address. I think that it might be more difficult to keep the amounts segregated in a lighting wallet address, but if we send the amounts on chain, then we cannot know the fees at the time of the payout.. but we could see the values on chain.

Of course if you hire someone escrow service then you have to pay the fee. You just pay the fee in this case rather then pledging anything. The house has to be paid something to run the business smoothly.
Though hisslyness already said that a post here would be sufficient.

I suppose you are correct that we could agree that one side or the other pay the escrow fees, yet hisslyness did not seem to requesting escrow fees, but instead just wanting to make sure that the fees for transacting might be sufficiently and/or adequately covered..and each of us needs to bear our own fees in that regard but then if we used an escrow we would have to send enough to make sure that he gets enough to cover the bet and in anticipation of any additional fees that he might have to cover any transaction fees at the time that he pays the winner of the bet. As I see below, you seem to agree with my suggestion that we might just choose that an escrow is not necessary, and you and I can agree to direct transaction of the payment of the loser of the bet, upon the time the bet terms is satisfied.

Quote from: WatChe on Today at 05:18:51 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 10, 2025, 08:54:28 PM

Just to reiterate:

The bet would close out in your favor (with me paying you 0.00003 BTC / 3,000 satoshis) on two possible conditions: 1) the BTC price goes above $333,333 on Bitstamp or 2) the time goes beyond 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026, and the BTC price had not gone below $90k on Bitstamp.

The bet would close in my favor (with you paying me 0.0003 BTC / 30,000 satoshis ) if the BTC price touches any price below $90,000 on Bitstamp before 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026.

Details must be clear.
Who knows what Bitcoin will be on 31st Dec 202?. This insignificant amount (for you) might be worth much more then it' today's value.

Personally, I think that the details are clear enough since we don't really need to know the BTC price on December 31, 2026, since we know that if the BTC price does not touch upon sub-$90k or does not go above $333,333 prior to December 31, 2026, then on January 1, 2027 or within a reasonable time thereafter, you would need to provide me with a bitcoin address or a lightning address - probably a lightning network address will be more practical, since it likely would have lower fees, but some agreeable way that I could send you 3,000 satoshis, and I would cover the fees, which preferably would be less than the size of the bet (for the transaction fees).

So for example to day, if I were going to send 3,000 sats on lighting network, it would cost me 160 sats, which today, it would cost similar amounts to send such transaction on chain, if I were to send with 1.13 sats per vbyte. However, we cannot know if the onchain fees are going to be higher in the future, and it seems that they will be, so we would need to be open in regards to how any such 3,000 sats transaction would be sent, if the bet does not close out prior to that time. Otherwise if the bet closes out prior by hitting $333,333 and I pay, then we would consider the transaction fees at that time and hopefully figure out a reasonable way for me to send the transaction.

On the other hand, if the bet were to close in my favor, and the BTC price goes below $90k, then I would send you a bitcoin address or a lightning network address, and you can send the transaction to me and you have to figure out the fees and you have to figure out how to send it. Most likely I am going to prefer to transact on the lightning network and to receive 30k sats.. after the fees are already covered on your end.

Quote from: WatChe on Today at 05:18:51 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 10, 2025, 08:54:28 PM

If we skip the escrow (skip involving hisslyness) then we would have to give each other a bitcoin address (lightning seems more feasible) at the time the bet closes.. and just figure that the amount received would have to include fees already having had been paid by the sender... .

I am open for that also i.e. P2P

That will probably work better, yet you have to stop talking in terms of dollars since neither of us should give any shits about the dollars, since our bet is in bitcoin / satoshis... If you win, you get 3,000 satoshis, and if I win, then I get 30,000 satoshis.

Quote from: WatChe on Today at 05:18:51 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 10, 2025, 08:54:28 PM

That is true that if I were not to pledge anything on my end, then it is like you are just pledging on your end and showing that you have even greater confidence that sub-$90k will never be breached.. .almost like a reflection of your confidence that sub-$90k will "never" be breached.

I am doubtful Bitcoin will be below 90k from here. Don't know why you don't think that way.

You said that you were certain that it will never go below $90k (so I am allowing for nearly two years to pass, and if it does not go below $90k, then you win). Perhaps the odds are in your favor, yet I was ONLY willing to take the bet based on high enough odds, I probably would not have taken the bet on lower odds than what we agreed to. It is not a 50/50 bet or a 80/20 bet. It is more like a 90/10 bet.... even though for simplicity and perhaps a lacking of math skills on either side of this discussion, we framed it as 10:1, which I was willing to accept...and apparently, you too.

Quote from: WatChe on Today at 05:18:51 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 10, 2025, 08:54:28 PM

In another instance, I recall in about late March 2019 when the BTC price was merely in the $3,900s, and JSRaw proclaimed that sub $3,900 was never going to be breached again, and I chided him for his asserted level of confidence, and he ended up being correct until March 12, 2020, we ended up getting a red candle that spike for a few minutes down to $3,850.. hahahahahaha.. He was mostly correct, but technically he ended up being wrong for just a few minutes and nearly a year later.

That's why I said there is nothing certain for Bitcoin, it's all about prediction which can or can't be true. Not even you are certain about the price, you also make predictions which can or can not be true. I think fundamentals don't play much role in bitcoin, it can go up on its own and down on its own.

As I already described, it seems that the reason that we are entering into this bet is because from my point of view, you entered into levels of confidence that are quite extreme, and you are largely willing to stand behind your assertion and to follow through with a 10:1 bet on the topic. I don't have any problem with that, since it seems that we have been able to work out the terms, and each of us is still willing to stand behind the bet as we had agreed to such terms.

Yes, the odds might be greater than 50/50 that you are going to win this bet, but we are not betting 50/50., so I don't mind if I lose since I believe that those are reasonable odds that we have agreed to from the point of view of each of us, at least so far, and I think that we are getting close enough to finalizing the bet, since I think that we discussed it back and forth, and it seems that each of us understands the terms of the bet as the terms now stand and have been reiterated.

By the way: Why have there been 5 posts between me and Buddy, and everyone else are like crickets - silent crickets and not the sport, either..since several of you seem to ONLY like to talk sports, these days?

Is there anybody out there, besides Buddy and yours truly?