Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 1 from 1 user
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
d_eddie
on 12/02/2025, 15:42:48 UTC
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
Recently stumbled across this nifty little python script:

https://utxo.live/oracle/

It claims to find the daily market price by transaction analysis only.
I am still trying to wrap my head around the concept behind it, but for now I'll stick with 'kinda magic'.

I gave it a try on my node and it came up with a price of $97133 for Feb 11th 2025 and $97164 for Feb 10th 2025.
I then tried with Feb 12th 2024 and it gave me $48195 which seems pretty accurate too.

Who would have thought that the blockchain even contains price information..

Friggin amazing what they did there if you ask me.

Very interesting. I perused the source, very well commented ("plain English", as the guy says), and it looks legit. However, from my quick glance I haven't been able to understand how he infers USD amounts from blockchain transactions.

Code:
# A basic understanding of how UTXOracle works is as follows:
   
#  Take a day's distribution of bitcoin transaction amounts
#
#                    * *   *
#                   *   * * *                       
#                  *     *   *   *           
#               * *           * * *           
#          *   * *                  * *      *
#         * * *                      *  * * * *       
#      * *                               * *    * * *
#     * *                                             *
#    *                                     
#   10k sats        0.01 btc           1 btc        10btc

# Create a smooth stencil to align broadly with a typical output day
#
#                       *  *
#                    *         *
#                 *               *
#              *                     *
#            *                          *
#          *                               *
#        *                                     *
#      *                                            * 
#   10k sats        0.01 btc           1 btc        10btc

# Create a spike stencil that fine tunes the alignment on popular usd amounts
#
#                         *
#                     *   *                       
#                     *   *                   
#                *    *   *          *           
#           *    *    *   *    *     *             
#           *    *    *   *    *     *    *             
#       *   *    *    *   *    *     *    *     *       
#       *   *    *    *   *    *     *    *     *     
#      $1 $10  $20  $50  $100  $500  $1k  $2k   $10k
#
# Slide the smooth and spike stencil over the output data and look for the best fit