It’s good to be prepared for all scenarios but I don’t agree with you here. We’ll see what happens but whilst the block reward is still whole bitcoins I think we continue to run on four year cycles.



I feel that whilst there’s still such a supply shock when mining block rewards are higher than most newbies even hold we will run on four year cycles.

I don’t have any scientific or mathematical formula to back this theory up.

Bitcoin is obviously maturing as an asset, we are seeing diminishing returns (I will need to confirm that depending on what this cycle high is. Is it more then 3.5x like the 2017 high of 20k to 2021 high of 69k. What will we land at this cycle?).

Perhaps the predictable four year cycle stops playing out in 2040 when the block reward is 0.19531250BTC or in 2044 when the block reward is 0.09765625.

Time will reveal all, I guess.


Whilst we’re discussing numbers, something that crossed my mind recently was, perhaps newbies should aim to HODL the amount of Bitcoin that correlates with the block reward (this will reduce as time passes obviously). Is there an argument that could be JJG’s fuck you money status one day?