I think it will be an even game and with Pakistan playing the game in the home ground, ICC tournament coming to their country after a long time, there would be another sort of feeling and atmosphere. On paper, New Zealand team may be strong but on the Pakistan home ground , you can't say with confidence, if they (NZ) would win that first match or not.
Honestly, I don't think so at all. Pakistan is heavily dependent on their middle order batsmen while New Zealand's top and middle order are firing on all cylinders these days. The Kiwis have a better bowling lineup too.
This is why Pakistan's home ground advantage won't really help them much in this particular tournament.
The failure of three batsmen in Pakistan's top order has put Pakistan in its current position. Especially Babar Azam and Fakhrazzaman, these two batsmen have been out of form for a long time. In fact, Pakistan is mainly dependent on these two batsmen, Mohammad Rezwan and Salman. If these two batsmen perform poorly, Pakistan will be all out before 200 runs.