Quote from: slaman29 on Today at 11:23:24 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 20, 2025, 04:00:33 PM

Quote from: slaman29 on February 20, 2025, 12:24:34 PM

It is too late to make 100X, I do believe this, but it is never ever too late to reduce your risk of inflation with normal currency, and increase your chances of making so much more value by saving in BTC.

Well it seems that BTC is around 1,000x or greater value than gold, yet bitcoin's market cap is ONLY around 1/9th the size of gold. Gold could come down too.

another thing is that the total addressable market of bitcoin is around 1 Quadrillion, yet bitcoin only has a market cap of around $2 trillion... so there is a possible 500x, even without considering that total addressable market could go to higher numbers.

Sure, it could take 50 to 200 years for bitcoin to reach a kind of "full potential" and to become mature, yet there are still possibilities of shorter term upward moves... but yeah, 100x would be quite a bit, so we may well not be able to count on 100x in the short term.. not that we could have had (or should have had) counted on 100x... .. yet from here 100x is merely $10 million per coin, and I recall that Hal Finney had argued in 2009 or 2010 that bitcoin's addressable market could bring it to $10 milllion per coin... so 100x seems to have potential.

Don't get me wrong. I had never gotten into bitcoin with high expectations of guaranteed returns, yet my beginning years in bitcoin, I had hoped that my bitcoin investment would average around 6% per year price appreciation, and largely my investment into bitcoin had ended up providing somewhere in the ballpark of 65% per year price appreciation, and that is way better than I had expected.

I have my own charts that project out bitcoin's 200-WMA, which I consider to be a much better way of measuring bitcoin's valuation in order to not get caught up on the volatility of spot price, since the 200-WMA measures the bottom price, and my current projections of the 200-WMA shows the 200-WMA crossing over $10 million in around 2067, which is ONLY around 42 years from now. .and yeah I consider my 200-WMA projection to be fairly conservative. I do have an earlier and more conservative version showing the 200-WMA crossing over $10 million in 2073... but yeah, that is nearly 50 years from now.. but still considered a bottom price which would suggest that the spot price is likely tending to be higher than that.

Very very very good points, and I actually am in line with you there 100%. Gold I forgot to bring into the equation still can make new ATHs and there we see true life example of something with increasing demand yet scarcity issues.

The only thing with this as you say, is 50 to 200 years. I am only thinking in terms of max 40 years. According to my country, my life expectancy is 40 years more. So in this timeframe I don't expect 100x (that means $10 million BTC). Or rather, for me to enjoy 100x with good health I need this to happen in 20 years.

Which is not happening, in my honest opinion

It seems a bit unrealistic to proclaim that you need 100x in the next 20 years or else, your life is not going to be good enough.

The fact of the matter is that we have to do what we can, and within our own limits there likely are ONLY so many things that we can do. We have our starting points, and we have whatever might be our current situation in which we can work in terms of our earning potential in the event that we need to keep generating income to continue to buy bitcoin.

I am pretty sure that we have had some of these kinds of similar conversations in the past, slaman29, and I recall that previously you told me that you had made some mistakes, yet surely I cannot remember what they were.. to the extent that they matter, yet I would think that you still have advantages over brand new people to bitcoin, since you have already been in bitcoin for quite a while and so maybe you have not accumulated enough BTC, but if you continue to accumulate, you are advantaged by whatever BTC that you have already accumulated, and you are also advantaged by knowing that bitcoin is a good place to prioritize your value.

We do not have to hope for the end goal of bitcoin in order for bitcoin to still be amongst the best of investments currently available to us.

There are people who get anxious and they sell BTC and hope to buy back cheaper.. which I personally consider to be almost completely retarded for anyone to be selling BTC if they already know that they are still in their BTC accumulation stage and they don't have enough BTC. I wonder how many BTC that you believe that you need?^**

**By the way, there is no need for you to tell me how many BTC that you have or how many you need, since we can talk in hypotheticals.

If you have a potential investment timeline that is 15-20 years, then surely if you were to be persistent, consistent, regular and perhaps even aggressive in your BTC accumulation, then I cannot see why you would want to put your money any place else (except to potentially off set your bitcoin with cash or other kinds of ways that you might want to balance out your BTC investment, especially once you start to get to a point that your BTC investment might be several years of your expenses).

I have my own projections that BTC bottom prices (meaning the 200-WMA) is going to go over $1 million in 15 years, and so what more could you want? Here is a recent post that I made on the topic:

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 14, 2025, 06:52:46 PM

I have not updated my fuck you status chart recently, but below is a supplement to a post that I did 3 weeks ago. You can see that my current presumptions of 10% withdrawal rate fuck you status, the amounts to get into entry level fuck you status go below 1 BTC in 2038, so surely the amount of BTC you need continues to go down, and at this point, I see no reason to change the various assumptions behind the future projections.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 20, 2025, 10:56:13 AM

Date    SpotPrice    200 WMA   %gain/time   Spotvs200    gain/time    Coins/10%FU Status   Coins/4%FU Status   Filty-Rich

11/29/24    $95,662    $41,513    27.69%    130.44%    $6,325    19.27107171    48.17767928    2,408.8840
5/31/25       $53,236    28.24%    102.00%    $11,723    15.02741817    37.56854542    1,878.4273
11/30/25       $68,570    28.80%    102.00%    $15,334    11.66687027    29.16717568    1,458.3588
5/31/26       $76,113    11.00%       $7,543    10.51069394    26.27673485    1,313.8367
11/30/26       $84,067    10.45%    95.00%    $7,954    9.51624621    23.79061553    1,189.5308
5/31/27       $92,412    9.93%    95.00%    $8,346    8.65683856    21.64209640    1,082.1048
11/30/27       $101,128    9.43%    95.00%    $8,716    7.91076448    19.77691119    988.8456
5/31/28       $116,297    15.00%       $15,169    6.87892563    17.19731408    859.8657

By the way, my number of to be necessary for BTC for the two entry-level fuck you statuses is presuming a bitcoin withdrawal rate of 10% at $800k for the first one (which is a $6,666 per month income) .. then $2 million and a traditional 4% withdrawal rate with the same $6,666 monthly income.. and then filthy rich would be a $100 million net worth.. of course each of these categories/statuses is pegged to the 200-WMA value and not to the spot price, where-ever that might be at the various snapshot times in the future.. I feel way more comfortable attempting to project 200-WMA rather than BTC spot price, even though there is a bit of an assumption regarding the rate that the 200-WMA moves up is based on BTC's spot price dragging it up at whatever rate I am presuming to be within reason for that time period.

Date    SpotPrice    200 WMA     %gain/time     Spotvs200       gain/time    Coins/10%FU Status     Coins/4%FU Status     Filty-Rich
5/31/35       $478,906        6.32%        95.00%        $28,457        1.67047403        4.17618506       208.80925
11/30/35        $507,648        6.00%        95.00%        $28,742        1.57589473        3.93973683       196.98684
5/30/36           $558,413        10.00%             $50,765        1.43263158        3.58157894       179.07895
11/29/36           $615,371        10.20%        102.00%        $56,958        1.30002865        3.25007163       162.50358
5/30/37           $679,394        10.40%        102.00%        $64,023        1.17751952        2.94379880       147.18994
11/29/37           $751,492        10.61%        102.00%        $72,098        1.06454876        2.66137189       133.06859
5/31/38           $796,582        6.00%             $45,090        1.00429128        2.51072820       125.53641
11/29/38           $841,987        5.70%        95.00%        $45,405        0.95013366        2.37533415       118.76671
5/31/39           $887,580        5.42%        95.00%        $45,594        0.90132681        2.25331703       112.66585
11/29/39           $933,240        5.14%        95.00%        $45,659        0.85722882        2.14307205       107.15360
5/30/40           $1,007,899        8.00%             $74,659        0.79373039        1.98432597       99.21630
11/29/40           $1,090,143        8.16%        102.00%        $82,245        0.73384836        1.83462091       91.73105
5/30/41           $1,180,878        8.32%        102.00%        $90,735        0.67746186        1.69365464       84.68273
11/29/41           $1,281,131        8.49%        102.00%        $100,253        0.62444830        1.56112074       78.05604
5/30/42           $1,345,187        5.00%             $64,057        0.59471266        1.48678166       74.33908
11/29/42           $1,409,084        4.75%        95.00%        $63,896        0.56774478        1.41936196       70.96810
5/31/43           $1,472,669        4.51%        95.00%        $63,585        0.54323146        1.35807866       67.90393312

Sure the results are not guaranteed, but there is no reason to conclude that bitcoin's investment thesis is getting weaker, even if the upward price trajectory is likely not going to be as exponential as it had been historically...so my point is that even a with regular investing into bitcoin, the quantity of bitcoin that you need for your own fuck you status is become less and less and less.. so even though right now, from my own ways of calculating entry-level fuck you status at western levels, a person needs a minimum of 18.07 BTC, which is an $800k valuation using the 200-WMA, which would allow him to withdraw $6,666 per month of income.

You can see from the above chart, that by the middle of 2040, a guy would ONLY need 0.79373039 BTC in order to be at an equivalent status (I am referring to in today's dollars meaning that the amount is adjusting and/or anticipating the debasement of the dollar).

So my point is that if you are able to accumulate BTC that values at the 200-WMA at around 10x of your annual expenses, then you should be able to figure out a way to live perpetually off of that income level.. so you just have to figure out what your income level is and to manage your money in such a way that at some point, you are able to pull the fuck you lever and live off of your BTC, and you can even have it set up in a way that the BTC is likely growing faster than the rate that you are drawing from it.

We cannot be guaranteed about whatever rate the BTC is going up or not going up, yet we can still invest into bitcoin and to figure out at what point our various lines cross where we have enough BTC and even more than enough BTC to pull the fuck you lever, and I doubt that 100x is needed to accomplish that, even though you are proclaiming that it is necessary.

In 10 years, you could invest into your bitcoin investment at a 10% to 20% of your annual income rate that would cause your contribution to become 1-2 years of your expenses, and if bitcoin had appreciated during that time, then you might have several more years of the equivalent of your expenses, and so maybe after 10 years investing into bitcoin, you might still need bitcoin to 5 x in order to get to your fuck you status level, and surely I consider those kinds of things to be possible, especially if you might have had already been investing in bitcoin and building up your bitcoin stash over the past 8-ish years. The main thing probably is to try to stay focused on bitcoin accumulation through ongoing, persistent and perhaps aggressive buying, and if you have been fucking around with trading and with shitcoins, then you need to get out of those dumbass and non-productive practices.

Many of us longer term forum members should recognize and appreciate that bitcoin is the place to put our value, so we have to focus on keep doing it until we get to our BTC accumulation point and better yet if we exceed it by a bit to allow us additional comfort... and of course, we have to practice measures to secure and to not lose our coins.