You seem to have a decent amount of narrow thinking about bitcoin price dynamics, and surely the ONLY source of liquidity in the market is not US Govt spending, and even if there has been quite a bit of correlation of bitcoin price to liquidity, I doubt that liquidity is even as correlated  to BTC price moves as people like to proclaim it to be.

Another thing is that various macro-events and even including seeming self-sabotage efforts of DOGE - the US government wannabe agency, these crazinesses could end up creating various kinds of panic modes and even excuses to print money, whether covertly or overtly.. in  order to bail out whatever catastrophes end up coming about, which is another form of utility, whether intended or not.


Do you make any sense?  Yes.. people say dumb shit, but how could Strategy's fairly regular buying of BTC  contribute to price dips... That makes no sense. It is one thing to joke about such nonsense, but another  thing to actually say it as if it were true.


Google is your friend.. .. you can ask.. when is the usa tax filing deadline 2025... to the extent that matters either.  Yeah.. every year we get folks proclaiming that BTC prices give any shits about tax filing deadlines.


What is our measuring point for the dump?

I had been considering these bet odds further, and the reason why thinking about them in dollars should not make too much difference is because we can take actions to mitigate our own situation to largely lock in our circumstances in our favor.

Of course, if we consider more or less 10:1 odds at the time of the finalizing of the bet (maybe we were around $95.5k at that time^**). 

**Here is largely the post that finalized our bet:

Once we know that the bet is in place (or likely to be in place), each of us has an ability to try to maximize our own benefit in accordance with the expected terms of the bet.

From your perspective, you may well choose to set aside extra money (whether in the form of outstanding BTC buy orders or just holding dollars/fiat on the sidelines) to purchase BTC upon a drop of the BTC price to $90k or lower.  Since you consider that such BTC price drop is quite unlikely to happen, you might consider those kinds of price drops, if they were to happen, as opportunities to buy BTC, and you may even have extra buy orders at around or below those BTC price levels in order to reward yourself extra if the BTC price were to drop to such levels.  Of course, if the BTC price were to drop to such levels of breaching $90k, then within a reasonable time, you would have to pay me the 30k satoshis of the bet plus any fees for the transaction of those satoshis to me.  Perhaps more likely to be on the lightning network or some other mutually agreeable way, such as on chain....  Surely, for you there could be opportunity costs with considering that you have to hold enough dollars (or whatever fiat) on hand until the BTC price drops or to be able to know that you will be able to have those extra dollars (or fiat) to be able to buy BTC at those $90k-ish prices.  Regarding fees, we cannot know in advance exactly what the fees will be, so you would have to make sure that you have enough dollars or fiat to purchase enough BTC to cover that too.

From my perspective, it is likely more advantageous to buy the quantity of 3k satoshis plus fees right away and then to hold that value in BTC through the term of the bet in case the BTC price were to go up from the time of the bet or from the time that I was preparing to enter into the bet.  Accordingly, if the bet were to end up closing at the highest possible BTC price for the closing of the bet at $333,333, then I would have had already accumulated those 3,000 satoshis and fees at around $3 or perhaps less?.   It could also be that I had already purchased some extra 3,000 satoshis plus fees at lower BTC prices, and so then my objective would be to make sure that I were to hold onto those extra BTC for the duration of our bet in case I were to have to pay you those BTC when the BTC price were to be at around $333,333. Regarding fees, it could well be the case that I would want to accumulate extra BTC since we cannot know how much the fees are going to be in the future.

The opportunity costs for me in preparation of being able to pay the bet is holding the value in BTC, and the opportunity cost for you is holding the value in dollars.  Sure, maybe neither of us prepares in advance and we take our chances that we will have the money to buy the requisite BTC at that time of the closing of the bet, and those are the kinds of calculations that each of us has to make in terms of the costs of not preparing in advance.  For me, it costs me less than $3 plus fees in today's dollars to buy the 3k satoshis plus fees, yet if I did not prepare in advance it would cost me $10 plus fees in the future to buy the 3k satoshis plus fees if I were to lose the bet at the highest price of the bet closing at $333,333.    Surely, we know that $10 in the future will not be worth as much as $10 today, yet even though we know that the dollar is ongoingly debasing at a fairly rapid rate, we might still consider that $10 in the future is still worth more than $3 today, so in that sense there still is an incentive to hold the 3k satoshis plus fees in satoshis rather than holding them in dollars with an anticipating of purchasing in the future, if the bet were to close at $333,333.

For you, you still would potentially be holding dollars and perhaps just setting a BTC buy order at $89,999 so that you can buy the requisite 30k satoshis plus fees in order to cover the bet, if the BTC price were to drop to such levels.. .and maybe it would cost you less to not prepare for such bet, since we know that the dollar and other fiat is ongoingly losing value through its debasement, so you might not have any incentive to prepare in advance to satisfy such bet as long as you know that you are able to generate the $27 plus fees to buy the 30k satoshis that you would owe me and to cover the fees to satisfy the bet if you were to lose the bet.  So the $27 plus fees is probably worth more today than it would be in the future if the sub $90k price threshold were to be breached and you were have to pay the bet.

Don't get me wrong, I am not even suggesting that our bet might not close today or at some soon point in the future, such as this week or this month.. versus the outside timeline that the bet might close at the end of 2026.  I concede also that the odds are likely in your favor to win the bet, yet I doubt that they are 10 to 1, and as outlined in this post I think that there are ways that each of us can make sure that we prepare ourselves to assure that we are maximizing our side of the bet, including considering our preparations (if any?) in the event that we were to lose the bet.


Aside from Biodom's correction of your maths and sciences, in the meantime, Saylor/MSTR's target is ongoingly moving, since Saylor/MSTR is likely going to be continuing to buy BTC all the way up to $300k and/or $1 million, and as long as he does not suffer some kind of custodial incident.

In other words, both his costs (and costs per coin) are likely going up and his total asset held are going to go up.   I wonder?  going up by 50% would put number of coins held at 750k, and surely some folks already consider that Saylor/MSTR has decently good potential to reach 1 million BTC, which seems fantastical at this point, since why would anyone or any entity need/want that many coins?