Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 08:53:12 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 15, 2025, 03:56:54 PM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on March 15, 2025, 01:55:41 PM

I believe that it will be a laughable week.
There will be those people that projected that the bull cycle "is over", who change their opinion to "Bitcoin will surge to ATH" next quarter. Cool

What we plebs need to focus is to ignore the news/predictions/forecasts. Focus on the Bitcoin Weekly Chart with the 200-Weekly Simple Moving Average. Buy during those moments when the price of Bitcoin is near, touching, of UNDER that line. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If you are new, you likely need to buy all of the time for a whole cycle - and sure, it becomes problematic if a person comes into bitcoin at or near the top of a price peak in which the BTC price might be several times higher than the 200-WMA... so those kinds of newbies may well have a dilemma regarding their buying of BTC... yet if they are new and they are either a no coiner or a low coiner, they will probably need to get started buying bitcoin consistently, persistently, and ongoingly and perhaps they can make decisions regarding how aggressive that they are able to be in their bitcoin buying while they are making sure that they have decently good cashflow management practices in place and while they already have their sources for bitcoin buying already set up.

Although true, that would also depend on a person's psychological "proclivities" because there is definitely a non-zero chance that some people have already sold with a loss believing that the cycle is "truly over" if they have bought Bitcoin near recent ATH. HODLing is not easy for us unsophisticated plebs, in fact, it's painful to see our life-savings with a 20% or 30% loss.

Yes. People do dumb things, but the fact that they do dumb things should not contribute to our caving into their dumbness.

If someone bought at the top, then they likely need to keep buying, which is part of the point of having an investment plan that goes over 4-10 years or longer, and yeah, there are some folks that may have had bought more than their budget when bitcoin was at our recent top, so they do not have more money to buy more bitcoin, and so they made a mistake which would require them to either just HODL through the situation or to wait until they have more money to continue buying.

Selling to buy back cheaper is a dumb idea, and it is contrary to what any newbie should be doing. We should tell them that is dumb.

Selling lower than you bought is a dumb idea, so we should tell them that is dumb.

Failing/refusing to continue to buy at a reasonable rate is a dumb idea, so we should tell them that is dumb.

Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 08:53:12 AM

BUT there's no absolute "correct path".

Some paths are better and smarter than others.

Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 08:53:12 AM

Wait for the DIP or DCA are both good paths to invest in Bitcoin, but it's the HODL that truly matters.

I don't think so.

DCA is the better of the paths for a brand new investor, and likely continuing to buy is better for anyone who is a low coiner or a no coiner.

Sure there are needs to figure out budgets, and HODL likely ONLY applies when you have run out of money or you got enough or more than enough. HODL does not tend to apply to newbies low coiners who have discretionary income. Those newbie low coiner should be buying regularly.

I will grant you that people can do anything that they want, including dumb things, yet I am not going to grant you that waiting is a good policy or practice for either lowcoiners or no coiners.

I will also grant you that a lot of normies do dumb things, including failing/refusing to invest into bitcoin or to continue to buy bitcoin, which is part of the reason why we ONLY have about 1% of the world invested into bitcoin, and even within those who are already invested into bitcoin, they tend to be low coiners who don't realize their low coiner status.

Sure, there are small segments of the coiners who have been buying bitcoin persistently, ongoingly, regularly and even aggressively (take Saylor as an example, and sure there are some others in a similar camp), and surely some of them have been building a stash of bitcoin much more than what they need or what will contribute towards their becoming even more rich, but these are a very small minority of people.. so then a disproportionate amount of the bitcoin are held by a small number of people, even though bitcoin is available to everyone and anyone.

Quote from: bitmover on Today at 12:22:58 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 15, 2025, 11:43:35 PM

As I type this post, 200-WMA is just above $44.8k, and in a bull market (which we seem to be in), BTC prices do not usually get within 25% of the 200-WMA which currently would be $56k, and right now, as I type this post, BTC prices are 87.5% above the 200-WMA.
Sure, we could go into a bear market, but it seems unlikely that we would go into a bear market prior to mid-2025.. but sure, hey, anything can happen, and there can arguably be some loose correlations of BTC's price performance with liquidity and various other macro-happenings..

I also think we are not yet going into a bear market.

However, this cycle has a different anatomy compared to the previous ones. We reached ATH before the halving, which is something unique that never happened before.

Therefore, this cycle may be going faster than previous ones. Things are happening earlier than they should, so bear market may also come earlier.

For sure, part of the reason that we should prepare ourselves financially and psychologically for a variety of scenarios and do not overly prepare in one direction or another.

And, it is possible to prepare for a variety of scenarios without under preparing for UP. Guys likely need to realize that they are best off making sure that they are sufficiently/adequately prepared for UP and not overly preparing for down.. Especially newbies, and especially guys who have acknowledged that they do not have enough bitcoin.

Since we ONLY have around 1% of the world's population's holding any amount of bitcoin, we have a 99% or so of the world's population that is insufficiently/inadequately prepared for UP... so UP, when it happens, is going to continue to be quite painful for the large portion of the population who have not prepared themselves sufficiently financially and/or psychologically for that direction.

Something like weekly DCA can be a good way to prepare for down for any person who considers himself as a low coiner.

By the way, you are correct that this cycle had some interesting aspects that include the early top prior to the halvening and then even the fact that so far the BTC price has ONLY gotten about 60% higher than the 2021 top (of $69k). Interesting dynamics, yet I doubt that they are dynamics that should inspire folks to try to behave as BTC traders rather than investors.

I understand that you and I have had these debates previously, and surely you seem more inclined to try to trade or to figure out various tops that you can shave off some BTC, yet I have my doubts if those are good strategies since it seems to me that several times you have mentioned that you have not quite reached a point of overaccumulation.

So for example, if we take your forum registration date and we hypothesize an investment of $100 per week, you would have had invested $37.6k by now and you would have had accumulated 2.72 BTC, which surely are not bad numbers.. so I hope that whatever you are doing in regards to your bitcoin accumulation and/or management has gotten similar if not better results than that, in terms of amount invested as compared to amount of BTC accumulated.

Regarding a target amount? I know that you had seemed to want to go BIG or go home, yet I also understand that you live in a place in which people are not necessarily accustomed to western income levels. In any event, doubt that the Go Big or go home approach is a good plan for actually living a rich lifestyle, so if you were to have a goal of a sustainable lifestyle of $30k per year of passive income from your bitcoin, then right now, you would need right around 6.7 BTC to have that level of a sustainable income. Of course, with the passage of time, perhaps around every 3 years, you need half of the amount of the bitcoin that you had needed 3 years previously.

So, yeah, my idea is keep stacking BTC until you get enough BTC or more than enough for your target. which yeah, it is a moving target, I understand that.