Quote from: bitmover on March 16, 2025, 04:54:46 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 16, 2025, 03:00:05 PM

So, yeah, my idea is keep stacking BTC until you get enough BTC or more than enough for your target. which yeah, it is a moving target, I understand that.

Although I do have a really decent amount of btc, I prefer to think in usd terms when considering my portfolio and retirement.

I have about 35% of btc in my portfolio. I think it is high for someone thinking about retirement .

How much usd do you think it is good for retirement in USA?

I don't mind calculating in terms of dollars and/or fiat, yet as you know in recent times, I have been using the 200-WMA in order to valuate the extent to which a person may well need enough.

For the USA or generally western countries, since 2020, I have considered $2 million to be enough to have an entry-level fuck you status, so that means that it would generate $80k per year (with a 4% per year withdrawal rate), yet I consider $800k (17.84 BTC) to be enough to have in bitcoin if it is valued at the 200-WMA, since that would also generate $80k per year with a 10% withdrawal rate based on the dollar value (so long as the spot price is at least 25% or higher above the 200-WMA).

Prior to 2020, I used to use $1 million as my idea of entry level fuck you status in the USA.. which would have been a $40k income per year. Yes, that is entry-level, so there will be variation in which some people are able to get by on less than that amount and others need much more... but yeah, $1million went to $2 million, but yeah, in bitcoin we can use the 200-WMA and we can also use 10% rather than 4% as our withdrawal rate in order to get to the $40k per year income prior to 2020 or the $80k per year income after 2020.

Regarding your 35%, sure that is pretty high as a start out amount, yet of course, you are not starting out, and you may well had gotten up to 35% based on BTC price appreciation and then your perhaps choosing to reallocate from time to time. I don't believe in major reallocations, even though I am not opposed to diversify investing into other asset classes, such as properties, stocks, commodities, bonds and cash/cash equivalents... not referring to having any over reliance on shitcoins.

I had personally gotten up to 10% in 2014, and then I thought that I was overallocated when I got up to 13.5% in late 2015, and surely we know that BTC prices shot up after 2015, so my BTC allocation had gotten into the 80% based on price appreciation, and then it dropped down to 45%-ish during the 2018-ish lows, and then it largely went back up to bounce between 65% and supra 90%.. perhaps even now I am bouncing around 90% allocation to bitcoin, yet that allocation mostly has to do with bitcoin's appreciation and my decision to not reallocate.

I see no reason to not let my winners ride, and so whatever management I have to do is selling on the way up and buying on the way down, yet I am not selling large amounts of BTC on the way up (perhaps less than 3% every time the BTC price doubles even though I have authorized myself to sell up to 10% every time the BTC price doubles but I have not been doing that), so my BTC holdings are largely continuing to compound on themselves. I would consider that to be mostly a holding strategy that I have been doing since 2015.

Sure, with you it is likely different from my own, yet I had considered all of my investments outside of bitcoin to have had been enough that I could have had used those in order to live off of them, so over the past 11-ish years, those outside of bitcoin investments have largely stayed the same, and maybe on their own they had appreciated in value to nearly double in value, while my bitcoin investment has performed in the 83x territories, if I were to use $1k per bitcoin as my average cost per bitcoin, since I may well be able to assert that mistakes were made and that is why I use $1k per BTC as a proximation of my average costs per BTC rather than using some other lower cost per BTC amount.

Quote from: Solodoski on March 16, 2025, 06:12:12 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 16, 2025, 03:00:05 PM

selling to buy back cheaper is a dumb idea, and it is contrary to what any newbie should be doing. We should tell them that is dumb.

Selling lower than you bought is a dumb idea, so we should tell them that is dumb.

Failing/refusing to continue to buy at a reasonable rate is a dumb idea, so we should tell them that is dumb.

It is good that you are saying this, even if it sounds like a bitter truth, and most newbies must have fallen victim to this in a bid to think that they are being smart.

Rushing to sell below the price at which one bought his Bitcoin is dumb. Even from basic economics, when the selling price is less than the cost price, it is only foolish to sell at that price except you are dealing with a perishable asset that can't stay after a certain time. Is Bitcoin in that category? For Bitcoin, even letting it stay is the best way to remain in profit, which makes it dumb to think of selling too suddenly.

As opposed to selling when the price is below what you have initially bought bitcoin, it should be counted as an opportunity of adding more bitcoin and buying at a cheaper rate. Patience and discipline are what will help one make the best decision when the thought of making a dumb decision comes in.

I am not even suggesting that being in profits is going to relieve anyone from being dumb to be selling prior to going through at least a whole bitcoin cycle of accumulation.

Let's say that someone came into bitcoin in early 2023, and so the person had a plan to invest into bitcoin for 10 years or more, so presumptively this guy is in decently good profits, yet he has ONLY been accumulating bitcoin for right around 2 years, so why should he be selling any of his bitcoin?

Maybe he has an income around $30k per year, and he had been buying $100 per week of bitcoin since January 2023. he invested nearly $12k and he had accumulated nearly 0.3 BTC. He is doing fine, and I think that he should continue to invest what he can and don't be fucking around with selling, even if his BTC holdings are largely in profits, perhaps even crossing at more than 3x profits from time to time.

It is a bad idea to lose focus, and to either stop buying or to sell and speculate to buy back cheaper, when that might end up causing the person to have even less coins.

Quote from: Mayor of ogba on March 16, 2025, 08:19:06 PM

Quote from: bitmover on March 16, 2025, 04:54:46 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 16, 2025, 03:00:05 PM

So, yeah, my idea is keep stacking BTC until you get enough BTC or more than enough for your target. which yeah, it is a moving target, I understand that.

How much usd do you think it is good for retirement in USA?

I know this question was for JayJuanGee to answer, but I would like to share my thoughts on this subject matter. If JayJuanGee or someone else tells you the amount of USD that would be good enough for retirement in the United States of America, it might be from the amount of USD they might need for their retirement, which might be way above what you want or below what you want, and it might be too high for you to achieve or too low to meet up with your dream retirement lifestyle you want to live. If you are already living in the United States of America, you should know the living expenses in the United States of America and the amount of USD that can possibly allow you to live your dream lifestyle in your retirement in the United States of America, so only you can figure out the USD that will be good enough for retirement in the United States of America.

These are reasonable points which also raise the problematic issue of describing the dollar as stable, and so I think that we are much better off to have our investment in something liek bitcoin and to be able to draw a stream of income from it rather than considering putting value into something else. I think that the bitcoin stream of income is going to keep up with the cost of living increases (and any ongoing and inevitable debasements of the dollar), which I question the extent to which other assets will be able to keep up with such cost of living increases and/or debasement of the dollar and other fiats.