Quote from: Odohu on Today at 05:20:36 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 04:23:05 AM

Quote from: bitzizzix on March 16, 2025, 10:07:02 PM

4-5 years or even 10 years in my opinion is the time limit that allows an investor to profit from Bitcoin investment and we must admit this, it's just that the profits obtained are not as satisfying as long-term profits without a certain time limit that will guarantee you will get much greater profits from all that.

Real evidence of the Bitcoin price trail at that time when compared to now has reached 1 and a half decades, the price continues to increase and passes 4-5 and 10 years the price continues to increase. So there is a possibility that such a case will happen again that the price of Bitcoin the longer you hold your assets firmly, the price will continue to increase which will provide much greater profits compared to the profits obtained under 10 years.

And this is often discussed and always in every comment that having discretionary income is a safe way in the investment journey, because discretionary income is the income that remains after paying important costs and basic needs and so on to be used to buy Bitcoin regularly which will not cause problems in your life journey and also your investment. And emergency funds are also needed because we don't know what will happen to us in our life journey, especially in financial matters and when we really need it without involving Bitcoin at all.

It seems pretty short-sighted to me, if a guy spends 4-10 years to invest into bitcoin and then he sells all of his bitcoin. There is no reason to conclude that selling all of your bitcoin is a good plan, especially if it may have had taken 4-10 years or even longer to build it up. Some kind of sustainable withdrawal whether price based and/or time based seems more practical rather than selling all of the BTC that had been accumulated.

I think people are mistaken that range you recommended for the right time to sell even when it should be a range should expect to see significant growth in their Bitcoin value and not necessarily a time to sell, this being how I understood it. Most people buy Bitcoin today and next day they want to see it double or let's say rise significantly but when that does not happen, they feel bad and sometimes are prompted to sell and leave especially when they put money they cannot leave in Bitcoin for a long period of time. However, if such person can hold for at least 4-10 years, then the chances that they would have seen their Bitcoin appreciate so much, base one what we have seen about the market cycle occasioned by Bitcoin halving of 4 years. The 10 years in the range covers two cycles and the more the number of cycles an investor holds, the higher the chances of seeing significant growth in the investment. I think this is my understanding of the 4-10 years suggestion. If I missed something or made a mistake, kindly correct me.

For sure, I am have been trying to suggest parameters to begin to think about minimum timeline for investing into bitcoin, and surely there is no real way to know all of the particulars of any given person, and surely each person has to decide for himself if he is engaging in investing or trading, and if he can figure out ways to incorporate bitcoin into his life after investing into it for 4-years or longer.

Yes, people can treat bitcoin as a long-term trade, and end up spending 4-10 years or longer building up their bitcoin holdings in order to sell, which surely does seem short-sighted, yet there is nothing that we are going to be able to do in order to get folks into an investing rather than trading kind of a mindset.

Surely, there are some folks with Age and/or health considerations that would not necessarily be able to commit towards investing into bitcoin for long periods of time, such as more than 10 years, but they may be able to commit to something like 4-10 years and then just see how it goes in terms of their cashflow and if they might start to need the money within 4-10 years rather than being able to hold onto their bitcoin investment longer.

If someone is DCA and/or lump sum investing into bitcoin for their first whole cycle, and then at some point comes to the realization that each of their new buys are not able to have at least 4-year timeline for the investment, then they may well consider either reducing their investment or to discontinue adding new money into bitcoin. Each new money that is invested into bitcoin should have a 4-10 year or longer timeline, otherwise it might be considered as trading rather than investing.. and sure if someone has already been establishing their bitcoin stack for a long time, they might be in an o.k. position to keep adding to their bitcoin stash, even if their newest of additional value might not be able to have a 4 year or longer timeline to it.

Ultimately, if someone is investing into bitcoin for a while, they also may well have other investments that help to inform their approach to bitcoin, and if they get into stqges that they are spending from their investments, then they should have priorities in terms of which investments to spend from first, or maybe they chip away at portions of various investments.

Let's say that a person needs (or wants) right around $6,666 per month ($80k per year), and if he has 5 different investment assets that are liquid or quasi-liquid, he may well plan around the assets and withdraw in proportion to each in the order of their allocation: 25% bitcoin, 15% properties, 15% stocks, 15% commodities, 15% bonds, 15% cash and cash equivalents. He could potentially cash out in equal proportions, or maybe if some of them have liquidity obstacles, he might choose to cash out in chunks of various amounts.

Many of us might well realize that our bitcoin is the most important one, so we may well cash out of the other assets prior to cashing out of bitcoin, or maybe we do not even have very much value being held in non-bitcoin assets, so our holdings might look like this: 75% bitcoin, 5% properties, 5% stocks, 5% commodities, 5% bonds, 5% cash and cash equivalents.

Surely, there are a variety of ways that we could be allocated, and surely stocks in properties might well be way more liquid than actual ownership of property, and even if we were to have some property that is shared ownership, we might not be able to get any of the others to buy us out of our share, which would then become quite illiquid and possibly not something that we might want to be considered to be part of our quasi-liquid assets.

My own valuation of bitcoin holdings does allow a higher withdrawal rate from it (10% from the valuation of the 200-WMA dollar value), once the investor might get to that stage of wanting to withdraw and/or starting to live off his investments and even potentially quitting jobs or having some of his work-related cashflows dry up, which might not even be completely by choice, and surely I consider the bitcoin portion of the investment to be the one that should be allowed to grow the most (and to be cashed out at the slowest rate - meaning to cash out of other investments prior to cashing out of bitcoin), yet not everyone is going to find themselves in a situation in which they are able to pick and choose from which of the assets to start to withdraw once they get to that withdrawal stage, which also might go to show that they had miscalculated if they were calculating that they could withdraw from any of their investments at any time that they would want to withdraw, and surely if some of their assets are way less liquid than they had presumed those assets to be, then BIGGER questions might develop when it comes time to start to try to live off of the value of the assets...and to figure out if they are liquid enough or that they have sufficient value in assets that are able to be cashed out of.

Another reason to have various cushions within assets that are needed prior to entering in to a withdraw phase is to make sure that enough assets, and/or more than enough assets are present in order that the withdrawal rates are going to be able to be sustainable in practice (not just in theory).

Quote from: Agbamoni on Today at 02:18:56 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 04:23:05 AM

[edited out]

I totally agree with you here. It doesn't make sense when an investor has gone through all the ups and downs for over 10 years holding their Bitcoin only to end up selling all for what. If they had made an enough profit over years, they should have taken the profits gradually making sure they still have enough Bitcoin in their portfolio to keep the investment ongoing. I expect every investor that has gone through 2 cycles of Bitcoin to be smart enough to know that Bitcoin is higher over time by now they should have known that.

Wealth is not just build buying and selling what we invest in. If we can manage our investment when it has grown we will gain wealth. But selling off all completely will only take us away from the game. However, in as much as we do know the disadvantages of not selling all our investment some investors will still make the mistake thinking they have seen the highest profit when they can get more over years and take profit gradually.

It seems that we do not need to frame our BTC holdings in terms of profits, even though sure, we are going to presume that there are decent likelihoods that after a couple of bitcoin cycles, our bitcoin holdings have good chances of being in profits..

Yet, we do not know how the future is going to play out. We may well consider that bitcoin is amongst the best of investments currently available, and perhaps we are safe in assuming that bitcoin will remain amongst the best of investments into the future.

We build our bitcoin stack while considering possibilities and perhaps assessing what we are doing from time to time, including whether we have reached a status of having enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin. Whether we have enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin is likely to depend on a variety of factors that include how much we put in, how much the BTC prices have changed relative to the dollar and/or other assets and/or how much the dollar may have debased (including considering cost of living and how much bitcoin might buy us as compared with other places that we hold value).

Frequently I like to think in terms of how many years of expenses our bitcoin value is able to pay for, which includes considerations of our historical standard of living and perhaps the extent to which our historical standard of living informs us about what standard of living we are expecting into the future.

Another aspect is that historically it appears that if we were to measure the value of our bitcoin in terms of the 200-WMA and we are considering withdrawing based on the dollar value of the 200-WMA, then we may well be able to withdraw 10% of the dollar value per year based on that rate. So if we are expecting a $80k per year income, then based on the 200-WMA, we need to currently have at least 17.84 BTC as our starting point for that level of income. The numbers and/or formulas may well end up changing into the future, so each of us would be responsible to figure out how many bitcoin we need, if we were going to start to sustainably withdrawal from our bitcoin stash.

I doubt that it is realistic for any of us to expect that we would go straight from our accumulation phase and into our withdrawal phase, without first passing some time within a kind of maintenance stage... So realistically if someone is a brand new investor who is investing as aggressively as he is able to, then he might spend 4-10 years or more accumulating BTC, then perhaps a whole cycle or more engaging in bitcoin maintenance strategies prior to moving into some form of sustainable withdrawal... I doubt that it is wise to consider cashing out any bitcoin at various points along the way while we are still in our bitcoin accumulation phases, unless we are spending and replacing... If you are planning on cashing out at bitcoin at various points along the way, prior towards your reaching overaccumulation status, then you are likely delaying your arrival at overaccumulation status.

And, yeah, none of us should be expecting to be able to completely project the specifics of the path of another person since the path and the various formulas in regards to how much is enough or more than enough are likely to have some underlying evolution (the ways of measuring are not exactly static, even though building the bitcoin investment may well end up serving as the staple of building and maintaining such value that is later going to be capable of being sustainably withdrawn, no matter what level of withdrawal might become relevant to a new investor who spends 10 years or more building his bitcoin holdings and perhaps other apsect of his investment portfolio.