Quote from: Porfirii on March 25, 2025, 07:24:37 PM

Quote from: shogun47 on March 25, 2025, 05:07:47 AM

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This requires some more information because it does make a difference depending on the game you are playing.

If you like to play the lottery, choosing birth dates or well known lucky numbers that others are likely to share with you, winnings in case of being lucky are statistically lower as more people with the same "lucky numbers" share the prize pool. That is why it is not the smartest method to choose numbers that others are likely to choose too, whether they are your lucky ones or not.

I think as soon as a known prize pool has to be shared with other participants, picking birth date numbers or patterns of numbers usually lowers your share in a prize pool. In all other games where your stake gets multiplied regardless of what others choose, lucky numbers are fine.

Exactly, but yet many will still prefer to stick to their lucky numbers no matter the statistics. I'm not sure whether this is mainly because they think that these numbers will make them win because of some mystical peculiarity, or because they look for the possibility of creating a beautiful story to tell in the case in which these dates of loved ones are the reason why they won the prize.
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It's actually both of what you said. People believe in all kinds of things and numbers are a great way to connect things that in fact have no connection at all. Storytelling is important to people, it gives them the feeling of being relevant and to justify certain conditions and circumstances in life in front om themselves.

"Exactly, but yet many will still prefer to stick to their lucky numbers no matter the statistics."

One of the issues here is that some people have no clue how statistics work. If last week the number 10 was picked in a lottery, it can't be picked again this week... I have had these conversations and sometimes it is so stupid that it hurts. There are many laws about numbers and all of them taken together essentially explain every so called coincidence or "mystical peculiarity", which is a nice expression by the way.

It would be interesting to have some reliable polls regarding the social category of people who tend to believe in these mystical peculiarities or not. I think everyone who went through some basic statistics as part of their education is less likely to believe in that, but I could be wrong. To some people it doesn't matter if you explain it to them. If there is a lottery with 100 numbers and the number 10 was picked last week, what was the probability for that number to be picked last week? What is the probability for this number to be picked this week? You'll be surprised how many will tell you that it is less likely although they won't deny the basic underlying explanation.

When I read the thread title, it got me hooked because I was curious what you have to say, but here we are, it makes sense what you put up for discussion while others think you are confusing one and the same.