Quote from: aesma on March 25, 2025, 03:03:01 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 24, 2025, 04:53:02 AM

Why choose such negative scenarios? Sure I mentioned $55k could happen as if it were not too likely, but still I mentioned that it could happen, and even with the SBR, it sounds like it would take some time for that to be established.

There are positive scenarios and negative scenarios, and the negative scenarios don't really seem very likely, and by the time we get through 2025 and half of 2026, then maybe we will be pondering if even 5 digits are going to be possible again.. ? depending on how much BTC's spot price might be able to drag up the 200-WMA in the coming 6-18 months.

I'm trying to understand Sailor's strategy in case of a pullback. Using cash in the company to buy BTC was one thing, but now his company doesn't generate as much cash, and is on a downhill slope. If he relies so much on new money when things are good, he's not going to get any when things are less good, so I only see selling corn as his fallback. And it all looks more and more like a Ponzi.

Prior to their recent issuance of various new "yield products," there was almost no way that Saylor/MSTR would have had problems with extended down periods of the BTC price, even 70% or more from the top, since the cash requirements to service their various loans were at very low rates (such as less than 1%) and the loans also tended to not be due for more than 5 years...

But now with some of the newer yield products, Saylor/MSTR is going to have to continue to pay yield with those products whether the BTC price goes up or goes down, so those yield products would greatly increase the cash requirements, so it seems that he would have to keep the cash on hand, otherwise, yeah selling BTC at losses would not be a good idea or a good look.

I am not going to claim to know how much of a draw down Saylor/MSTR could sustain, especially if the draw down were to last for a couple of years. I think short term draw downs is not a problem, since none of Saylor/MSTR's debt involves any kind of collateral... which surely is a common misconception that people have when it comes to the idea of debt. Saylor/MSTR had their learning experiences in 2023-ish when Silvergate and Banks were being attacked, and that loan was collateralized, but they were able to get out of the loan and even buy it back at a great discount, yet I think that they learned a lesson about not collateralizing their bitcoin loans (at least not with bitcoin).

Quote from: klintay on March 25, 2025, 08:18:55 PM

91K coming in hawt
buy the dip pussies
LFG

The dip was a couple of weeks ago.. .. so that is "old news." I am sure many of us in these here parts either already bought the dip or we had already been largely stocked up from our prior years around the block.

I see you have been registered on the forum about a year longer than me, so I would think that you would have already been stocked up by now... unless you have been trying to play every wave in the past 12 years.. which could well have left you as someone still accumulating dee cornz. I do see from a quick perusal of your posting history that you spent quite a bit of time mining, so hopefully you were able to hang onto decent quantities of whatever coins you had gotten over the years. Pray tell any interesting happenings... or if you really are still buying BTC in recent times?