Post
Topic
Board Trading Discussion
Re: JJG's Bitcoin Investment Ideas (Sustainable Withdrawal / Portfolio Maintenance)
by
JayJuanGee
on 28/03/2025, 14:45:13 UTC
[edited out]
Thank you for sharing your thoughts on the two threads. It seems like you're suggesting that your BTC Investment Ideas thread might be more relevant to members who are early in their BTC accumulation phase, while this Sustainable Withdrawal and Portfolio Maintenance thread might be more suitable for those who have already accumulated a decent amount of BTC and are looking to maintain their holdings or employ sustainable withdrawal strategies. Is that a correct interpretation?

Sure, it is true that I consider sustainable withdrawal strategies to come into play after bitcoiners have achieved overaccumulation status.

Many of us can appreciate that it could take years and years to reach overaccumulation status, yet some guys still want to participate in conversations regarding how they might want to treat their bitcoin holdings once they get to overaccumulation status, and perhaps they might feel that they want to prepare for overaccumulation status prior to getting there - so in that sense, even the sustainable withdrawal theories could be applicable to guys considering why they are accumulating BTC and what to do once they reach a status of having enough or more then enough BTC.  Furthermore guys might not even be sure how to characterize enough or more than enough bitcoin without thinking through how to valuate their stash.

It also could be the case that guys might consider flaws in my own bitcoin valuation methods, and they may well want to use some of my ideas and to discard others, including that some guys consider valuating based on the 200-WMA becomes too complicated when usually if we are making any BTC sales we would be selling at spot price rather than 200-WMA prices... and of course, when the BTC price is down to the 200-WMA levels those seem like times that guys might temper their selling of BTC and perhaps error on the side of buying or holding... even though I have also speculated that if some guys might be completely living off of their BTC, they still might be able to sell at reduced rates during times that the BTC price might be near or even below the 200-WMA.

Of course, there are some guys who want to use some of my ideas to formulate their own BTC trading practices, and even though I recommend against trading BTC, there still can be some logic in terms of viewing bitcoin prices to be overvalued or undervalued based on how far spot price is from the 200-WMA.