Quote from: Negotiation on Today at 05:21:09 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 02:45:13 PM

Of course, there are some guys who want to use some of my ideas to formulate their own BTC trading practices (or even shitcoin trading practices in regards to how they might think about getting in and out of shitcoins in order to try to accumulate more bitcoin), and even though I recommend against trading BTC (and surely I recommend against screwing around with shitcoins), there still can be some logic in terms of trying to assess bitcoin prices as being overvalued or undervalued based on how far spot prices might be from the 200-WMA.

If someone works with a 40-week target as you said, I hope they will not lose. There are many things here, since you discuss many topics and they are detailed, and I myself have been inspired by many of your writings and have seen that they are actually effective in practice.

I am not clear what is your reference to "40-Week target." My attempts to use the 200-WMA revolves around an attempt to figure out how a guy can plan to withdraw from his BTC based on "bottom prices" rather than spot prices that tend to bounce in a lot of directions, and of course, guys can take my ideas and turn them into something else or attempt to execute some kind of plan that is outside of my attempts to frame these matters.

Maybe an example could be helpful? If a guy with a $30k-ish income had been investing $100 per week into bitcoin over the past 4 years, then he would have had invested right around $21k and he would have had accumulated about 0.58 BTC..

So really after 4 years of investing fairly steadily into bitcoin his average cost per BTC would be right around the same at the 200-WMA, so surely he might feel that he is in a pretty good place in regards to how much BTC he had been able to accumulate, yet he still might feel that he is quite far from his ability to live off of the BTC since 0.58 BTC would have a 200-WMA value of $26.2k and a spot value of $50.6k. I have been frequently suggesting that a guy can withdraw 10% dollar value based on the 200-WMA, yet with current values that would ONLY allow this particular guy to withdraw at $2,620 per year, which is way below his current income.

On the other hand if a guy of a similar status had been investing $100 per week over the past 9 years, then he would haver had invested $47k, and he would have had accumulated around 12.2 BTC, so this second guy would feel that he is in a much better place to be able to start to live off of his BTC since his 12.2 BTC would have a current 200-WMA valuation of $551k and a spot price of about $1million. So based on the 200-WMA, I would consider that the guy can sustainably withdraw at a rate of $55k per year, which is nearly double his current salary. Of course, this second guy could wait or continue to invest into bitcoin to continue to grow his BTC stash, yet he would not necessarily need to continue to add to his BTC investment in order for his sustainable withdrawal rate to go up as long as he is either not withdrawing or withdrawing way below the 10% rate.

Another thing is that there are various stages between the first guy with ONLY 4 years investing into bitcoin and the second guy with 9 years in vesting into bitcoin, and within those various stages, there can be assessments in regards to whether the bitcoin stash is enough or not... and frequently, I consider that 4 years of accumulating bitcoin is not enough, yet surely when we start to get to points of 6-9 years and above, we might have had enough money put into bitcoin and also enough passage of time that we end up getting into a position that we might be able to sustainably live off of our bitcoin.

For sure we know that past results do not guarantee future results, yet we can still make assessments along the way in terms of our having had put value into bitcoin and trying to figure out if we have accumulated enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin in order to start to sustainably withdraw from our bitcoin stash.

Quote from: Negotiation on Today at 05:21:09 PM

The main point here is that while the profits are much higher in other coins or tokens, the risk is much higher. Because there is a possibility of losing your money completely, but when you invest in Bitcoin, you do not have to fear losing your interest completely if you can keep your wallet safe.

Of course when investing into shitcoins we likely do need to pay more attention to our entrance into and our exit out of the various shitcoins in order to attempt to be profitable (or to potentially out perform bitcoin in the short term).

Surely bitcoin is in a different category in terms of it long term fundamentals, and even though there are always execution risks and there are exogenous risks (risks outside of our execution), we can figure out our position size in terms of how we might consider the ongoing strength of bitcoin's investment thesis... so that we can figure out our own level of aggressiveness in investing into bitcoin and how much value that we are willing to put into bitcoin as compared with other places that we might put value. We are not necessarily going to arrive at the same conclusion regarding how aggressively that we might choose to allocate into bitcoin within our own resources (and the strength of our cashflow management systems).

In regards to keeping our own private keys, then surely there are some of us who would not want to keep more than 10% of our bitcoin with third parties, so we would need to learn how to secure our private keys (wallets), and so no one would want to lose his bitcoin investment based on his own carelessness in terms of how his coins (private keys) are stored.