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Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 27, 2025, 03:49:05 AM

We invest into bitcoin or any other investment with an expectation that we are going to be profitable, even though we know that we are not guaranteed to be profitable. We also have to know that the short term is very hard to predict, and even bad things can end up happening in which our investment is no longer strong, whether we made mistakes or whether something related to the asset ends up having problems to weaken it as an investment.

Naturally, no one puts money in an investment planning to not make profit, making profit is the primary reason for investment and while there are no guarantees for profit, there are strategies we put in place to increase our chances of profit, its also prudent to know that short term investments are at a higher risk of not making profit and as such short term investments should be avoiding, if the plan is to make profit in bitcoin, then long term investment is the way to go.

If a person is coming to bitcoin with an expectation to be staying into it for 4-10 years or longer, then by looking at the extent of BTC's volatility (and unpredictability of price direction), there should be little to no expectation that the investor's capital will be profitable in the first several years, and they should actually not be considering profits to be very important in the first few years of investing into bitcoin, especially since they likely are still in their BTC portfolio building phases, so there could be some advantage of not being in profits in the beginning, which means that they BTC price had likely been gravitating downwardly through their ongoing bitcoin buys.

I generally talk about 4-10 year or more investment timelines in bitcoin because I would not want to dissuade anyone who at least has a minimum of 4 years that they still are going to be able to invest into bitcoin, yet based on the way that bitcoin has historically been performing within the context of cycles, I would consider that 4 years would be the minimum timeline to be able to reasonably consider bitcoin as an investment rather than as a trade.

So personally I would consider 4-10 years as a short term investment into bitcoin, and surely since I also frequently talk about sustainable withdrawal, I consider that guys should not be building their bitcoin investment in order to cash all of it out, yet it would be better to employ some kind of a sustainable withdrawal that can be price-based and/or time-based (and I have a thread talking about sustainable withdrawal ideas).

But, yeah of course, anyone can do whatever they want when it comes to how to treat their bitcoin once they reach their goals and if they have inclinations to spend all of it or to invest in other assets, even though I consider there to be a lot of value in the employment of sustainable withdrawal practices, guys surely might have their own reasons to follow some other way of managing their bitcoin holdings and/or if they believe it is a good idea to completely sell off their accumulated bitcoin after perhaps spending many years building up their bitcoin stash (and hopefully the value has appreciated during that time too)..

By the way, regarding long term DCA with bitcoin, I believe that we can have a presumption that bitcoin's price trajectory is going to be up for the long term, yet even if we have a presumption, we are not guaranteed that bitcoin's price trajectory is going to end up playing out upwardly.

A reasonable assertion, treating 4-10 years of bitcoin investment as short isn't a bad idea, though its definitely long term for some other investments, but relatively short for bitcoin due to it's volatility and unpredictability, and I can't say it's very smart to immediately sell all of a person's bitcoin assets once they have met their investment time, sustainable withdrawal makes sense and while it can be time based or price based I believe it can also be percentage based, maybe sell like 10% of your assest when a person wants to sell. But ultimately, it up to the investor to decide whether to sell everything or to employ the use of sustainable withdrawal.

Within the same post that you cited from me, I talked about examples in which a guy who had started investing 15% of his income per year in September 2016 would be in a position to be able to sustain himself at the same salary rate at this time which is about 8.5 years later, yet also based on 7 years of his investing at 15% of his salary.

I personally think that withdrawing 10% per year is possible as long as you are withdrawing based on the 200-WMA dollar valuation of your BTC holdings and to be able to withdraw at that rate in perpetuity. Of course, everyone can figure out the extent to which he considers sustainable withdrawal to be a preferred approach over any strategy that overly depletes principle. Guys should be able to figure out either how to follow the formulas that I am suggesting or some variation of such strategy that they believe is sustainable based on the withdrawal rate that they would like to employ..

I personally believe it is not a good idea to overly deplete your bitcoin investment unless you have some kind of a health or age consideration that does not allow you to figure out some ways to attempt to perform sustainable withdrawal - either once you have reached a status of over-accumulation or that you are no longer wanting to continue accumulating bitcoin.

I agree that it's not very go to overly deplete a person's bitcoin investment unless it's absolutely necessary to do so, age being a major factor, they are people who might not see reason to accumulating more wealth than they already have, probably due to not having an heir or something in that regards, I have seen a situation where a wealthy business owner sold almost all of his asset only to donate it all to charity, saying he has no one to inherit them from him, so I believe this and other reason can make a person stop accumulating bitcoin.

The story you are trying to tell may be a true but those kind of situation are always rare because I haven't seen someone I mean an investor, that will sell his or her investment because they don't have an heir, to me it doesn't make sense talk more of to be true because over the years I have come to realize that wealth are not always enough mostly for an investors, they hardly stop investing because they feel they haven't invested enough and investment is like a lifestyle to them so whether they have an heir or not they won't stop because they will love or like to maintain their status.

Have you seen an old man without an heir but has a reasonable amount of bitcoin, not too many, just enough???
There are people like that out there, I have heard of one, seen another, the old man has a heart condition and he just wants to rest, this things happen, mosts of his funds are in charity, he just wants to live out his days peacefully, his investment were done by another person, not something I would advise anyone to do, but his investments were done by another person, and now he has sold everything and just wants to live out his days in peace. You can't just rule out the possibility of these things, things happen.

You just made the whole thing clearer now because at first you didn't made mention of old man having a heart condition. However, if that is the case selling out investment to make other people live happy and enjoy it is not bad and it is a very generous behavior, because not everyone without an heir will be so free to sell out his investment to give people he don't know or have relation with because they will be so angry and unhappy for not having an heir thereby transferring hatred to innocent people.