Quote from: Mrbluntzy on Today at 09:06:58 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 12:56:54 AM

You still seem to be contradicting yourself, since you seem to be claiming that there is some value in having some kind of a target price, and sure I am not completely opposed to the idea, but to me it still seems to be problematic for guys to be thinking in terms of target price prior to their reaching some kind of a accumulation that helps their target price to make sense, but in the abstract if a guy starts to think in terms of target prices while he might still be in his accumulation phase, then you are sounding like a trader.

Even in your case, you have been registered on the forum for less than 3 years, and so do you consider that you have accumulated enough bitcoin to start to employ sales strategies rather than ongoingly considerig buying at least for a couple more years?

Sure the last 3 years have been quite good for anyone accumulating bitcoin, especially if they had been able to front load their investment during mid-to-late 2022 or even into much of 2023 while BTC prices were largely under $30k for most of 2023.

But if you ended up starting out whimpy in your bitcoin investment and not able to front load, it then I really doubt that you are in a good position to be considering selling techniques rather than just continuing to buy through this cycle and perhaps into the next.

Let's say that you had been somewhat able to invest aggressively into bitcoin over the past nearly three years, and let's say for example you had an income of around $5k per month (which is $60k per year), and since July 2022 you were able to invest around $500 per week into bitcoin, and so then after nearly three of investing, you would have invested $72k and you would have had accumulated about 2.1235 BTC. Surely not a bad place to be, yet I doubt it is a place that is any place close to putting you in a position to be able to start selling at some anticipated target price.

Surely based on the 200-WMA valuation, 2.1235 BTC would give you an ability to withdraw at around $9,600 per year, yet if you wanted to replace your income, you would need around 6x to 7x further rise in the 200-WMA.. which may take a few more years to play out.

Generally with bitcoin we need to accumulate a certain amount and with the passage of time before it starts to make sense to start to sell, unless you are trading rather than investing.

Quote from: Mrbluntzy on March 29, 2025, 10:33:32 PM

For example, as I continue to accumulate, I could set a target that I would not sell my Bitcoin until the next 8 years and when I backup this target with the right investment strategy, like DCAing respectively to my income capabilities and also making sure it is flexible such that I don't over invest.

O.k... having a timeline for investing makes sense, but it seems different from what you were saying previously about having a price target. Even with my above example, it seems that even if the BTC price were to go up 6x to 10x from here, your accumulated amount of bitcoin might still not be enough to justify selling, even thugh surely any of us may well consider some value in shaving off portions of our bitcoin stash if the BTC price seems to go up too high and too quickly, so for example, even if you were to have a situation that I described above in which you had already accumulated 2.1235 BTC, and if the BTC price were to go up to $500k (6x) within 6 months or maybe $830k (10x) in 9-12 months, then it could be hard to blame you if you ended up selling some portion of your BTC stash, even though you still might not have had reached your accumulation goals in light or the 200-WMA...

It is really difficult to describe what any other guy might do, since the guy has to account for a variety of factors that include how much BTC he had accumulated so far and various other factors related to his finances and psychology.

You are right, it's actually too sudden for an investor to think towards price target if the person is still on their accumulation stage. I was just saying so in regards to how different investors have their pattern on handling their investment, such that they already know how many Bitcoin they want to accumulate and what they have accumulated already. I didn't know that that sounded more like the plans of traders.

In my case, I don't consider myself to have even accumulated any considerable amount of Bitcoin talk more of thinking about selling, I am not selling but would keep adding more Bitcoin to my wallet for the next unknown year to come. Like you said, 2022 was enough opportunity to have loaded up enough Bitcoin at very low price such as $15k, I was aware when the price was $15k in November 2022 but I didn't get any Bitcoin then. Even when I bought just a little of it in 2023 I still sold because of some urgent financial needs, I bought at a high price and sold lower.

I am not yet in the position to consider selling, I will sell in no known time, not anytime soon and your explanation is quite clear to me now. Looking at the example you gave, I am not even close to 1 Bitcoin yet talk more of 2.1235BTC, with how little am investing, it will take me more than 6 years to even get up to 1.5 BTC (if at all), I am not yet totally dependent on myself but soon enough I will be and when I get a job, I will also increase my, although the minimum wage here is poor but with other side hustle, I can get more to load up.

Quote from: George Edward on Today at 07:20:23 PM

Quote from: Barikui1 on Today at 07:56:56 AM

This discussion about uses chart to predict bitcoin price has reminded me of one of my college mates who even spent money to learn how to trade. All he did every day was look at the Bitcoin chart from time to time, searching for the perfect period to enter the market.The painful part is that he wasted about $5k on trading and the money he used to learn trading. Later, he regretted it when he saw that the Bitcoin price had increased to $100,000. He said to me that if he had invested in Bitcoin instead, by now he could have been in profit.Now, he has started investing again, and this time he doesn’t even care about Bitcoin’s price.

Well that's is his choice and his aim but still he doesn't want to aspect the fact that he is at loss he just don't want to give up that is good but if he applies that mind set into Bitcoin he will indeed be a successful investor.
most times having a mentor or an advisor Is good for an investor because before making a move or a decision the investor will have to ask his mentor ,and from there it now up to the investor or trader to decide on if he will take the advice or not .

Trading is totally risky and the reason why some people go into trading is because of the mindset that they can become risk just within a short period of time, they thought they can become George Soros, but it's not that simple. Trader lose a lot of money, guys, but a holder doesn't lose a bit, all you do is hold, hold, hold until your secure enough profit as you desired. I would not engage in trading because I am not in a rush to become rich overnight.

Not only being quickly rich, traders reason but also, they feel trading is less risky than investing on Bitcoin, they feel they can quickly cash out at anytime because they don't know what the price of Bitcoin will be in the next minute so that they should not be at loss, the fear of them losing a bit of their money is what they dont want to experience, getting quick wealth can also lead to quick poverty, they have failed to understand that investing in Bitcoin is preferable than trading because it is less risky, whatever happens in the market an investor is so relaxed because he knows he is HODL for long-term of about 4-10 years which no matter how the price of Bitcoin goes up and down, at the end he will be more profitable than a trader .