Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
everybody exhausted yet?
I guess we go up for real in fall or early winter... it's gonna happen anyways
I guess we go up for real in fall or early winter... it's gonna happen anyways
I sure hope you’re right but I’m beginning to have my doubts. Days like today in my experience are usually followed by months of pain. Hopefully we’re just seeing tax selling and tariff panic and not a real downturn, but I’ll admit my faith is being tested. If this was my first rodeo I’d be panic selling here.
Yeah I also think pain (and boredom) until fall. Until everybody is exhausted and nobody believes in a bullrun anymore. You are almost there
One a sidenote, cycles will probably be different from now on, supercycle or whatever but not what we had until now. Bitcoin is maturing and halving will have less and less impact, except from being a fading self fulfilling prophecy
halving should still have an impact...on miners.
If the price does not increase at least 2X between halvings and energy cost and difficulty rise/efficiency stays the same (stable), miners would become not profitable.
Energy cost is increasing relatively slowly, and it is possible that difficulty rise and efficiency improvement would cancel each other out, albeit it seems that difficulty is still rising faster for now.
I am not surprised that miners try to accumulate bitcoin as a result.
wouldn't difficulty just come down until miners are in profit again?
No, because investment and build-outs take time. There's billions of dollars being poured into purchasing and setting up equipment in newly built datacenters. Those projects aren't going to stop because difficulty or costs rise. They will stop when the underlying businesses fail and go bankrupt. That's the only (likely) thing that would cause difficulty to drop and it would probably just lead to assets being liquidated for pennies on the dollar and a market crash. At that point you'll have vultures showing up with new investments and the cycle can begin anew. We're still a LONG WAY from this happening and I don't think we've seen something like this occur since 2018. We're honestly due for the pain, but I was hoping we'd see $200K this year first. When you see rows of S21s being run over by a steamroller to reduce their scrap footprint, then the cycle is ready to reset.