Next scheduled rescrape ... never
Version 1
Last scraped
Scraped on 03/04/2025, 21:04:03 UTC
everybody exhausted yet?
I guess we go up for real in fall or early winter... it's gonna happen anyways
I guess we go up for real in fall or early winter... it's gonna happen anyways
I sure hope you’re right but I’m beginning to have my doubts. Days like today in my experience are usually followed by months of pain. Hopefully we’re just seeing tax selling and tariff panic and not a real downturn, but I’ll admit my faith is being tested. If this was my first rodeo I’d be panic selling here.
Yeah I also think pain (and boredom) until fall. Until everybody is exhausted and nobody believes in a bullrun anymore. You are almost there
One a sidenote, cycles will probably be different from now on, supercycle or whatever but not what we had until now. Bitcoin is maturing and halving will have less and less impact, except from being a fading self fulfilling prophecy
halving should still have an impact...on miners.
If the price does not increase at least 2X between halvings and energy cost and difficulty rise/efficiency stays the same (stable), miners would become not profitable.
Energy cost is increasing relatively slowly, and it is possible that difficulty rise and efficiency improvement would cancel each other out, albeit it seems that difficulty is still rising faster for now.
I am not surprised that miners try to accumulate bitcoin as a result.
wouldn't difficulty just come down until miners are in profit again?
No, because investment and build-outs take time. There's billions of dollars being poured into purchasing and setting up equipment in newly built datacenters. Those projects aren't going to stop because difficulty or costs rise. They will stop when the underlying businesses fail and go bankrupt. That's the only (likely) thing that would cause difficulty to drop and it would probably just lead to assets being liquidated for pennies on the dollar and a market crash. At that point you'll have vultures showing up with new investments and the cycle can begin anew. We're still a LONG WAY from this happening and I don't think we've seen something like this occur since 2018. We're honestly due for the pain, but I was hoping we'd see $200K this year first. When you see rows of S21s being run over by a steamroller to reduce their scrap footprint, then the cycle is ready to reset.
I’m still targeting September 16th as the top for this cycle, but I do have my doubts.
If it's really September it would probably be a very disappointing ATH ...
How did you come up with that date btw?
It is the right amount of days after the halving to line up with the previous 2 cycle highs (excluding the FTX fraud modified cycle). That doesn't necessarily mean I'm going to sell my stack on September 16th, but it means that is what I am expecting to be the normal peak for this cycle. Could it be accelerated to a few months ago due to the ETF and MSTR sucking in future investment funds? Sure, that is a real possibility. Could we see a million dollar Bitcoin in September if the United States decides to buy 200,000 BTC this year and the S&P 500 decides to pile in with them and the states? We surely could. It is admittedly looking less and less likely by the day though. I was disappointed by the Amazon and Microsoft shareholder votes on BTC and I think that was probably the first sign this cycle wasn't going to go as thought.
Original archived Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Scraped on 03/04/2025, 20:58:33 UTC
everybody exhausted yet?
I guess we go up for real in fall or early winter... it's gonna happen anyways
I guess we go up for real in fall or early winter... it's gonna happen anyways
I sure hope you’re right but I’m beginning to have my doubts. Days like today in my experience are usually followed by months of pain. Hopefully we’re just seeing tax selling and tariff panic and not a real downturn, but I’ll admit my faith is being tested. If this was my first rodeo I’d be panic selling here.
Yeah I also think pain (and boredom) until fall. Until everybody is exhausted and nobody believes in a bullrun anymore. You are almost there
One a sidenote, cycles will probably be different from now on, supercycle or whatever but not what we had until now. Bitcoin is maturing and halving will have less and less impact, except from being a fading self fulfilling prophecy
halving should still have an impact...on miners.
If the price does not increase at least 2X between halvings and energy cost and difficulty rise/efficiency stays the same (stable), miners would become not profitable.
Energy cost is increasing relatively slowly, and it is possible that difficulty rise and efficiency improvement would cancel each other out, albeit it seems that difficulty is still rising faster for now.
I am not surprised that miners try to accumulate bitcoin as a result.
wouldn't difficulty just come down until miners are in profit again?
No, because investment and build-outs take time. There's billions of dollars being poured into purchasing and setting up equipment in newly built datacenters. Those projects aren't going to stop because difficulty or costs rise. They will stop when the underlying businesses fail and go bankrupt. That's the only (likely) thing that would cause difficulty to drop and it would probably just lead to assets being liquidated for pennies on the dollar and a market crash. At that point you'll have vultures showing up with new investments and the cycle can begin anew. We're still a LONG WAY from this happening and I don't think we've seen something like this occur since 2018. We're honestly due for the pain, but I was hoping we'd see $200K this year first. When you see rows of S21s being run over by a steamroller to reduce their scrap footprint, then the cycle is ready to reset.