Quote from: ckolivas on May 03, 2014, 01:30:58 PM

Quote from: eleuthria on May 03, 2014, 01:28:01 PM

Quote from: ckolivas on May 03, 2014, 01:09:38 PM

How many orphans do you see here from btcguild?

Less than 1% (the general 'rule of thumb' that has been fairly accurate for the past 3 years is ~1%) in 2014.

Right.

Quote from: SelbyTsang on May 03, 2014, 01:08:35 PM

But the time needed to propagate a smaller block to the network should be slightly shorter, giving the miner a slightly advantage in orphan block race.

And what's discus fish and ghash's orphan rate?

GHash and Discus Fish use smaller blocks because they are by far the two worst connected pools on the network. GHash's history of winning orphan races is pretty poor when they aren't the one that mines the next block. Based on looking at organofcorti's charts (http://organofcorti.blogspot.com), it looks like GHash's average over their last 6000 blocks is around 1.5% (not seeing the actual stat anywhere over the full timeline, so going based on visual estimate).

Discus Fish doesn't have many (any?) stats publicly available, so their orphan rates aren't known. I would bet they probably have a worse orphan rate considering they're in China, meaning their connectivity to the majority of the mining power on the network is very poor.

EDIT: And speak of the devil, Guild's most recent block was orphaned by Discus Fish even though BTC Guild's block was seen by most of the network well before theirs, since they found the following block. Guild's block was seen *14 seconds* before Discus Fish's block by blockchain.info, and 96% of the nodes blockchain.info is connected to reported Guild's block over Discus Fish's.