Quote from: Leahized on Today at 11:06:57 AM

@MrLuisMarques

The Bitcoin hash rate is behaving as a leading indicator.

That's chart is telling us something new. We’re entering a cycle unlike anything in Bitcoin’s 16-year history.

ETFs (BlackRock, Fidelity, etc.) unlocked Bitcoin to institutional capital flows, creating persistent buy pressure.

Nation-states aren’t trading they’re mining and stockpiling.

Corporate treasuries are starting to act like long-term holders, not speculators.

Bitcoin strategic reserves and energy-backed mining by states (e.g., Texas, Russia, Middle East) point to price-insensitive miners.

Miners themselves are not selling as much as they used to. Some of them are using the MSTR playbook and are issuing debt to buy more Bitcoin.

Historically, miners reacted to price — purely profit-driven behavior.

But now:

Nations and large corps mine to accumulate BTC without having to buy it on the open market (to avoid price slippage or political visibility).

They are not just mining for profit today. They are Hedging fiat debasement. Gaining geopolitical leverage (e.g., Russia/Iran mining BTC to bypass SWIFT or US sanctions). Securing access to a finite asset before hyper-adoption

These miners don’t care if the immediate price is $83K or $109K — they expect $500K+ in 2–5 years. They are deploying capital and energy now, front-running that future. Hence: hash rate rises, even if price temporarily cools.

So what is the Bitcoin hash rate telling us?
1) There is growing long-term conviction.
2) Capital is being deployed based on future price expectations, not current profitability.
3) Miners believe the next leg up is imminent — and permanent.

This is not just a short-term speculative response to price volatility. It’s a strategic positioning ahead of what many believe will be Bitcoin’s move from a $1.6T asset to a $10T+ asset class.

My thesis is that the Hash Rate is evolving from a lagging to a leading indicator.

In the past we saw Hash rate sometimes lag price in retail-driven markets - as Bitcoin price goes up, it becomes more profitable to mine it, attracting more miners, which then leads to higher hash rate.

Now hash rate is behaving as a leading indicator, because miner behavior is driven by long-term confidence, not short-term profit margins. This trend of hash rate leading price is likely to continue growing.

The price will have to follow soon. Why you may ask? well, lets assume it doesn't, lets assume price stays flat or goes down:

Less efficient miners will get squeezed, but state-level miners or corps with cheap energy won’t blink.

These price insensitive miners are likely using subsidized energy (stranded hydro, flared gas, renewables during off-peak hours).

So hash rate may not come down at all — and price may simply have to adjust upward to reflect the pressure building under the surface.

It’s the same dynamic as spot ETF inflows outpacing new issuance — it’s price-insensitive accumulation.

Imagine a nation-state with 5 gigawatts of surplus energy — they’re not mining for USD profit today, they’re converting stranded electrons into a hard monetary asseer t with potential global reserve currency status.

That's not mining; that's stealth strategic asset acquisition. This is hash rate front-running hyperbitcoinization.

Take a look at the chart below. Around Feb 2025, we saw a decoupling of hash rate vs price, same as we saw in July 2024, and before that in Aug 2022. What followed in 2022 and 2024 was price catching up to the hash rate. The same will happen in 2025, price will have no choice but to catch up.

Anyone disagrees?

https://x.com/MrLuisMarques/status/1908429913931014297

Hash is now going to lead price. Hmm sounds like cycles are over if you are correct. Also sounds like btc will need to double twice in under 5 years.

So 164 then 328 by 2029.

Or we are fucked when it comes to btc.

Maybe if I ever hold my coins I could make a million