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Yes you are right holding fiat in reserve funds for the purpose of buying the dip is like waiting for a dip which is not right because no one can be certain when a dip will happen so wait for something that you are not certain of may turn out to be a waste of time.
Ultimately, each guy has to determine the extent to which he might choose to hold some funds back for the purpose of buying the dip, versus just buying regularly and ongoingly when they get the money. There are trade offs, and surely I asserted that waiting and/or holdng money back is more problematic for newbie lowcoiners as compared with someone who had been accumulating bitcoin for a while, yet sometimes folks do prematurely conclude that they have enough or more than enough bitcoin, even though they should be ongoingly accumulating.
Another thing about buying the dip, there can be some psychological satisfaction in that, yet guys still have to figure if they are going to hold back some value in order to be able to buy dips, whether that is 25% or some other amount that they might choose to hold back.
DCA strategy is seen as one of the best investment strategy because it gives you the opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin at every price as we all know Bitcoin rise and fall the price fluctuate so using DCA strategy will make you buy at every price high and low.
Using DCA strategy to accumulate will also make you enjoy the process of Bitcoin investment.
DCA also eliminates the pressure of trying to time the market or predicting it.
Lastly by sticking to weekly or monthly accumulation of Bitcoin reduces emotional decision making the DCA strategy promotes discipline in investment, there by removing panic from investors during dip and also making them to focus only on long term investment.
This is all true. Regular buying is good for anyone who is still trying to build up their bitcoin stash and they consider themselves to be needing a lot more bitcoin. Some level of certainty comes from continuing to buy which is that your BTC stash will continue to get larger, even if the BTC price is likely fluctuating a lot along the way, you are still able to figure out how aggressively you are able to ongoingly buy bitcoin at regular intervals no matter the bitcoin price...and perhaps 4-10 years or longer down the road, you will have accumulated a decent amount of BTC and even potentially put yourself at an advantage in terms of the various options that you have because of your having had accumulated bitcoin..
yet your profits are not guaranteed, even if you did everything perfectly.Yes that's true no one is certain what will come out of his or her Bitcoin investment and that is the little risk there, Bitcoin investment is risky too because just like you said your profit is not guarantee, I think as Bitcoin investor we should also bear this in mind also that our profit is not guaranteed because of the volatile nature of Bitcoin and since no one can predict correctly what may happen it means anything can happen and that why Bitcoin investment is risky however no matter how volatile Bitcoin is if you keep holding there's a great hope of getting profit even if is not certain.
Even though anything can happen, there surely are various probabilities that can be assigned to different future outcomes, and some outcomes have higher probability as compared with other future outcomes. We are not going to think through our probability assignments in the same way, and surely there are ways to prepare for a variety of outcomes without even being correct in the specifics, yet with bitcoin we may well hope that we are directionally correct, even if we might end up being wrong with specifics.
There are also ways to prepare for low probable events without overly preparing for them...so for example, even in 2022, there were many guys who got reckt when the BTC price went below the 200-WMA, which was then around $22k in June 2022, and the 200-WMA ended up moving up to $28k in late 2023. In any event there were guys who were predicting that the BTC price would not go below the 200-WMA, and they overly bet on such outcomes, and surprisingly bitcoin spent a lot of time between June 2022 and October 2023 near or below the 200-WMA.
It was likely a low probability event that ended up happening, but several guys were still able to hold through that period and even keep buying BTC during that time, even though they might have had suffered financially (at least on paper) during that time, but if they held through it and even held until current time, their bitcoin holdings are going to be nearly 4x better off, even today with our dip down to $80k as compared to where they were at during that period and while some other folks were completely destroyed by such bitcoin price moves because of the way that they had set up their bitcoin holdings without properly accounting for possible extreme negative scenarios like that to end up playing out. There are other similar examples in bitcoin's history, and likely in the future there will be additional examples of extreme bitcoin price movements in the down and/or in the up direction.
I do not expect anyone to start their investment perfectly. As humans we are not limited to making mistakes in different aspect of our life.
Franky speaking bitcoin investment is not a smooth ride it is like a roller coaster it goes and goes down at regular interval.
Remember, never be discouraged, those who survive in the waves of the sea are the real sailors. It is natural that the price of Bitcoin will go up and down, the more you try and the more research you do, the more patient you are, the stronger you will become in the Bitcoin market and your investment will last for a long time. And if you want to follow the DCA method in Bitcoin investment and sustain it for a long time, then you must be patient, the more you can buy Bitcoin at a lower price, the more likely you will be to achieve success later.
Therefore, you should never take a break from buying in the Bitcoin market, because once you enter Bitcoin investment, you will definitely express the most interest in buying Bitcoin later. That is why it is most important for the investor to follow the DCA method, which will enable him to sustain his investment for a long time.
The DCA strategy alone cant enable you sustain your Bitcoin investment for a longer time what you need is your discretionary income this this what will enable you to still be accumulating Bitcoin and keep your bitcoin portfolio growing, DCA strategy is just one of the method which we can use to accumulate Bitcoin, the DCA strategy is highly recommended because it keeps you going in your bitcoin bitcoin either every weeks or every months irrespective of the price of Bitcoin and hodl for 4-10.
If you have insufficient discretionary income you can't accumulate Bitcoin and your bitcoin portfolio will stop growing.
I disagree with you complete because the DCA method is not lacking anything. If you religiously apply the DCA method, you can achieve your Bitcoin objective. To be honest, the DCA method is the best method anyone can use to buy Bitcoin because it is organized, and well structured to suit all level of income class. It eliminates fear and FOMO because with it you will have to wait for the time to come and you click buy without bothering what the price will be.
As I learnt the DCA method, I became more motivated to buy and hold for long because I am not buying without fear and not thinking of selling my Bitcoin because I have worked out how to buy with amount that will not disturb me one bit. As I receive my salary, I simply push the part I want to invest into Bitcoin there and continue to meet my needs as though I did not remove any money from my side.
I will admit that DCA is likely the best amongst a variety of possibilities, but it is not the best in all circumstances.
Let's say hypothetically, you have an income of around $30k per year, and over the past 4 years, you had been DCAing $100 per week into bitcoin, so maybe you have invested around $21k into bitcoin and you have accumulated close to 0.6 BTC.
Let's say that all of a sudden you receive an unexpected bonus (or some kind of pay out of $10k). What are you going to do with it?
Let's presume that you want to buy bitcoin with it, and let's assume that your back up funds and your emergency funds are sufficiently adequate, so then what are you going to do with the extra $10k that you just received?
Are you going to: 1) buy right away with it? 2) DCA over a certain period of time? and/or 3) set up some buying on dips?
Guys are not going to necessarily come to the same conclusions about how to treat the extra $10k, and surely how they treat it can be different depending on where they are at in their bitcoin accumulating journey.. a person who is brand new to bitcoin might treat it differently from one who has been into bitcoin for 2 years, versus 4 years, versus 8 years, versus 10 years or versus some other timeline of being in bitcoin.