It is crucial to consider the unpredictable nature of token price and the volatility of cryptocurrency exchanges.
Since 2024, did you not noticed that those tokens lunched on solana blockchain will first rise immediately after they are listed on centralized exchanges. They will increase like 10x or more or less and they will begin to fall. Your friend could have used that to make predictions. Trump coin is not special but just a solana meme coin.
This is true prediction, not "all" of them goes up, but the ones who go up will fall back down, so it is clear that Trump would have been the same, and turns out it was. But, because "the president of the USA" was tied to it and it was officially really his own coin, that became something that made people be a lot more interested in it and assumed it would be different.
I am not arguing over it, they are right to assume that it could have been different, after all this is the memecoin of the president of biggest nation in the world, not some other meme based thing, but turns out they were wrong and it was just another one. This is why I do not really see them as doing anything special with it, it's just going to keep going down.