People are not stupid.
I don't really see how people would have learned anything. Back then, they complained about Musk, saying: "Oh, but that was market manipulation!" Today, people again complain: "Oh, but that was market manipulation!" But does it have any consequences?
I meant people with power to move the markets, people who can bet $1m like it's nothing.
Maybe you remember that scene from the movie about Madoff where he'd call people that he knew had money and tell them he needed like 20 or 30m and they'd say OK, fine, and send it to him? That's the people I'm talking about. The rest will scream manipulation and fall for it, not because they are dumb, but because they can't do anything about it. They're desperately trying to make money and will take the risk and fall victim to people like Trump and Musk.
I wish it would have consequences for those involved but they know they can get away with it. Biden was able to pardon himself and his son, why wouldn't Trump do the same?
This is also the narrative the Trump government members (e.g. Karoline Leavitt) are now using to defend themselves. However: If you already know that you'll retract a measure and the market reaction is predictable, nobody would have used this information personally to profit? This is also quite naive ...
That was a 10% move on the s&p which was the largest since the covid crash. Someone who knew what was about to happen could short stocks with leverage and make 100% in a day, then reverse it and go long and make another 50%+ on April 9. Betting $10m would get you another 15 in a week. Even if you were a really cautious trader with no leverage you'd make 1.5m making a safe x1 short a month ago.
If you traded Nasdaq that would easily be 20% without any leverage.
If anybody doubts that they would ignore the opportunity, I'd like to remind them that we're talking about liars and scammers who do this every single day. Musk hired someone to play a computer game in his name and claimed that it was him playing, even when people had proof that it was a hired guy from China. He lied on stream saying that they're stupid to think he'd hire someone and later attempted to prove he could play, but kept dying to the easiest bosses.