You have to first keep in mind that my overall point was having had reached a status of overaccumulation, and so I doubt that my decision had to deal very much with my belief in bitcoin as compared with attempting to manage my then bitcoin allocation and what I had come to conclude was a reasonable allocation (which was 10% of my total investment portfolio) and then my having had exceeded such allocation, since I had around 13.5% allocation... which was 3.5% higher than what I then considered to have had been a reasonable allocation to bitcoin.  

I had then thought that part of the reason to figure out an allocation is that the allocation does not even need to be very high in regards to being able to profit from it, and surely bitcoin was even less known and there were quite a few concerns about it in 2014 and 2015.

In about mid-to-late 2015, when I first put my selling of BTC on the way up practice into effect, the BTC prices were around $250, and so I ended up dividing my BTC stash into three parts.  1) those bitcoin that I bought since December 2014 - that had an average cost of around $235-ish, 2) those bitcoin that I bought since July 2014-ish - that had an average cost of about $330 and 3) my total BTC stash that I bought since late November 2013 - that had a total cost of about $500-ish....  

So I had worked out some formulas that I could ONLY sell BTC within the formulas from the profitable portions of the BTC stash, so for example, I will give a hypothetical to help to show that if I had 10 bitcoin in group 1, those 10 bitcoin would also be in group 2 plus any BTC that were in group 2, so maybe group 2 would have been 20 bitcoin in total, and then group 3 would have had been all of my then bitcoin, let's say 40 bitcoin.

So then with the initial sales if the BTC price went up $10, then I would be able to sell from the $100 profits.. less than 50% of the profits and I also choose less than 25% of the profits.

so let's say with that initial 10 BTC in group 1, when the BTC price doubled $250 to $500, the BTC stash value went from $2,500 to $5,000, and so maybe I would have had been able to sell $500 of that (that would have had been 10%).

So once the BTC price got 10% or higher above the group 2 average, then I was able to include group 2 into what I was doing, so I was no longer working with just group 1 coins, and then once the BTC price got to be 10% higher than the total BTC stash, then I was able to use the whole stash.  

So then let's say for the sake of argument that I had 40 BTC at $500 per coin... So that is $20k, and so when the BTC price went up to $1k, then I was allowed to sell 4 BTC.  That would have had been $4k allowed to sell.  Even by then, little by little I was selling lower percentages of my overall BTC stash, and it did not have to do with belief as much as it had to do with formulas that I found to be useful in terms of how much cash would stack up versus how much that I had in bitcoin, and so I did not mind having a certain amount of cash building up, but it would make me uncomfortable to have too much cash builiding up.

I recall even when the BTC price went up to $19,666, the price had largely 78x from $250 to $19,666, and so even though I had been selling small portions of bitcoin all the way up, I am pretty sure that the value of my bitcoin when the BTC price was around $19,666 was still greater than 90% than the value of the cash that I then had in hand from the sales.   So even if we stick with the number of 30 BTC, then that would have had been worth close to $600k, and the cash that I had on hand was maybe in the ballpark of $60k.  Sure the numbers may have been a bit different, and my memory might be fading, yet I recall that as the BTC price went higher, even though I kept selling small amounts, the percentage that I sold tended to get smaller and smaller even though the absolute values of the cash that was generated for each of the sales was getting larger and larger as the BTC price went up... so if the BTC price kept going up then the amount of cash on hand kept going up too.


I never considered myself as a trader, since I was never selling in order to be able to buy back cheaper, but instead I was attempting to create a kind of downside insurance fund.  Over the years, there have been quite a few forum members who have proclaimed and argued that I have been trading, and I frequently proclaimed that I have not been trading and I disagree with the idea of trading or gambling, especially since I had already reached a status of overaccumulation.  ... At the same time, I don't disagree with the idea of trying to offset some of our downside risk or attempting to take advantage of seemingly inevitable bitcoin price volatility, and surely any of us can differ in regards to what kinds of formulas or practices might achieve such objectives, including questions about whether we are attempting employ incremental kinds of practices or if we are playing around with large portions of our BTC stack size.

We can argue about the semantics, and I am not going to agree that I was trading or seeking to trade, even though surely since 2015, I have been selling BTC on the way up and buying BTC on the way down from the proceeds of the sales.. and there are a variety of other kinds of portfolio management practices that I have attempted to employ and to tweak from time to time based on my own 9 individual factors.

So then the question for various other guys might be how much BTC do they believe that they need in order to reach a status of overaccumulation?   since I personally believe that guys should not be selling any of their BTC until they have concluded that they have reached a status of overaccumulation.  Each guy is responsible to figure out these matters, and hopefully not devolve his practice into trading and/or gambling, since from my perspective it is not a good idea to sell any BTC until you have already reached a status of having enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin.  You don't accumulate more bitcoin by selling any of it... It is not safe and it is not a good idea and it is not a good mindset when it comes to your bitcoin and/or any kind of goals that guys might have to build up their bitcoin to reach a certain level of their investment portfolio or perhaps a certain amount of total networth, such as 5-10x the amount of their annual expenses measuring the value  of the bitcoin using the 200-WMA (which is a bottom price, not a top price).


Since late 2015, I mostly was not trying to accumulate more bitcoin.. except sure I will describe that between late 2015 and mid-2017, I had been engaging in somewhat ambiguous practices that might have had been based on some of my own learning process and even some mistakes that I had made during that time, since I did continue to accumulate more bitcoin during that late 2015 to mid-2017 period of time.  I think that I largely stopped trying to accumulate more bitcoin since 2017 (or at least not injecting new value into bitcoin, except for a few rare occasions, such as mid-to-late 2022 during that extensive BTC price dropping period).
  

I think that from my sustainable withdrawal thread, I have mostly been following price-based sustainable withdrawal rather than time-based sustainable withdrawal, even though since around late-2022, I have had cordoned off portions of my BTC stash for some variations of time-based sustainable withdrawal too.

I think that selling 10% for every time that the BTC price doubles is a very conservative approach, and surely there could be mistakes that involve guys failing to properly assess their status of overaccumulation, and wrongly concluding that they have more than enough bitcoin.  I surely do not have any regrets about my approach, and I had even been participating in the below linked SSS thread since about April 2014.


I likely got a lot of my ideas about the withdrawal of 10% for every doubling from that thread, including my own variations of the application of the ideas, and I have no regrets about the pursuit of those kinds of formulas and/or attempting to modify such formulas to individual circumstances... and yeah a lot of the reasonableness or even the potential reasonableness of such formulas may well have to do with attempting to sufficiently understand the asset that we hold and including any desires (or precautions that we might want to employ) to not sell too much of our BTC too soon.   Even though I have made several mistakes, I still believe that I have not been employing practices that involve selling too much bitcoin too soon.


Of course this is an open thread, and members are free to express their opinions and to challenge any of the facts, logic, opinions and/or conclusions of other members, and surely my own facts, logic, opinions and/or conclusions have flaws from time to time in the way that they were communicated and also their substantive propositions.   Guys are not always going to agree, and frequently we can learn from disagreements or different ways of saying similar things.

Sometimes we might not be sure if we agree or disagree, yet we might still want to get some explanations regarding any of the facts, logic, opinions and/or conclusions that seem to be coming from the post of other members.  Any time that any of us post, members might seek clarification in one regard or another.

It can be helpful if members back up whatever points they are making or trying to make, yet there also can be times in which members disagree with others, but they are not sure why they disagree - if the disagreement is a matter of definitions or if it is a matter of substance.. or maybe even from time to time, we might disagree about whether certain points that are being made fit into the topic of this thread. Sometimes after we go back and forth a bit with a few posts and a few examples, we might figure out why we had been disagreeing and perhaps even learn from the process.

There surely can be some times in which we do not agree, and surely there may be some times in which some of the themes of disagreement are repeated based on ongoing disagreement in regards to certain approaches or even sometimes getting into arguments that relate to personalities.