Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 02:08:46 AM

Quote from: BitBakerr1 on April 13, 2025, 08:48:15 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 13, 2025, 04:55:55 PM

[edited out]

JJG you did very well I love how you handled your Bitcoin investment, there are some set of people who had a good number of Bitcoin just like you did and they sold all at once and today they are regretting there action, the strategy you used in selling your Bitcoin then was a very smart and nice strategy it helped you prevent selling at once.
I also love the fact that even though you where selling you where still accumulating when there's a dip and trust me that was one of the reasons why your Bitcoin investment is still in existence and that is what I always say that reaching a status of overaccumulation those not mean you still can't continue accumulating you can only be accumulating when there's a dip it will help keep your investment except you don't want a Bitcoin investment anymore but if you still want it and you have started selling it is also important you accumulate when there's a dip because if you keep selling without adding to it then it will run dry and you will have nothing to sell anymore.

I had already posted that it was my belief that part of my mistake was to be buying and to be selling at the same time, which was a period between late 2015 and mid-2017, and I think that I made that kind of a mistake based on my being somewhat unclear about my transitioning out of the accumulation stage of my bitcoin investment and into more of a maintenance stage.

I had considered doing both things at the same time to have had been more of a mistake rather than anything that benefited me, yet the reason that I did it was because I lacked some confidence in my being able to move out of my BTC accumulation stage, and perhaps I was subliminally (or subconsciously) admitting to myself that I might not have had yet accumulated enough BTC or perhaps that I was selling more BTC than I wanted to sell as the BTC prices went up.

With the passage of time, perhaps after mid-2017, I became more confortable with my maintenance status and my assessement that I had enough or more than enough bitcoin.

I had initially assessed that I had enough bitcoin by late 2014, when I had gotten my bitcoin holdings to about 10% of the size of my total quasi-liquid investment portfolio. Yet it seems that during 2015, I had largely increased the total of my bitcoin holdings by about 35%, yet I still was lacking some confidence in regards to whether I had enough bitcoin, and I suppose the bitocin price going up from in the $500s in early to mid 2016 and into the $2k to $3k arena in mid-2017 helped me to determine that I had enough and/or more than enough.

Another thing is that between late 2013 and even into 2018, I was not directly evaluating my bitcoin stash by using the 200-WMA, and most likely I started to use the 200-WMA for the valuation of my BTC holdings in 2019 and increasingly thereafter..

Sometimes we don't know what we don't know, yet our own journey should help to inform us what to do and/or how to attempt to treat our bitcoin holdings in light of other investments that we might have and also considering our goals too... perhaps the extent to which we might want to draw upon our holdings.

Surely, whatever drawings that I had been doing onto my bitcoin holdings had been within a context of price based withdrawals as I already pointed out my sustainable withdrawal thread where I elaborate on discretion in regards to employing such incremental price-based withdrawals..

Wow JJG now I know the reason why you where selling your Bitcoin and still accumulating, that feeling of not having enough yet it happens and a some people are in such situations right now they don't really know if they have accumulated enough or not.
JJG you said what helped you really realize and have confidence that you had enough was when Bitcoin price going up from in the $500s in early to mid 2016 and into the $2k to $3k arena in mid-2017 surely such a move in Bitcoin will help someone know if he has accumulated enough or not.
Maybe if the price went from $500 to $200 maybe you won't have this confidence that you have accumulated enough so maybe is safe to say the high rise in Bitcoin can help someone find out or build the confidence that truly he has accumulated enough or not.
Your whole story of your Bitcoin investment journey is an inspiration and a learning ground for both new and old investors so Sir JJG keep sharing your thoughts and experience.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 02:08:46 AM

Quote from: BitBakerr1 on April 13, 2025, 08:48:15 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 13, 2025, 04:55:55 PM

Quote from: Derekfunds on April 13, 2025, 01:43:33 AM

I guess What you were doing back then was spot trading not really an investment

I never considered myself as a trader, since I was never selling in order to be able to buy back cheaper, but instead I was attempting to create a kind of downside insurance fund. Over the years, there have been quite a few forum members who have proclaimed and argued that I have been trading, and I frequently proclaimed that I have not been trading and I disagree with the idea of trading or gambling, especially since I had already reached a status of overaccumulation. ... At the same time, I don't disagree with the idea of trying to offset some of our downside risk or attempting to take advantage of seemingly inevitable bitcoin price volatility, and surely any of us can differ in regards to what kinds of formulas or practices might achieve such objectives, including questions about whether we are attempting employ incremental kinds of practices or if we are playing around with large portions of our BTC stack size.

We can argue about the semantics, and I am not going to agree that I was trading or seeking to trade, even though surely since 2015, I have been selling BTC on the way up and buying BTC on the way down from the proceeds of the sales.. and there are a variety of other kinds of portfolio management practices that I have attempted to employ and to tweak from time to time based on my own 9 individual factors.

So then the question for various other guys might be how much BTC do they believe that they need in order to reach a status of overaccumulation? since I personally believe that guys should not be selling any of their BTC until they have concluded that they have reached a status of overaccumulation. Each guy is responsible to figure out these matters, and hopefully not devolve his practice into trading and/or gambling, since from my perspective it is not a good idea to sell any BTC until you have already reached a status of having enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin. You don't accumulate more bitcoin by selling any of it... It is not safe and it is not a good idea and it is not a good mindset when it comes to your bitcoin and/or any kind of goals that guys might have to build up their bitcoin to reach a certain level of their investment portfolio or perhaps a certain amount of total networth, such as 5-10x the amount of their annual expenses measuring the value of the bitcoin using the 200-WMA (which is a bottom price, not a top price).

Same here too I don't consider you as a trader just because you where selling your Bitcoin, those who are saying because JJG was selling his bitcoin his a trader are you people saying an investor who have accumulated enough Bitcoin can't sell of his Bitcoin? So if an an investor who has accumulated enough Bitcoin can start selling his Bitcoin then i don't see any reason call JJG a trader Because he has already Accumulated enough and if a person has accumulated enough Bitcoin and his now ready to start selling it which ever way he decideds to sell it those not make him a trader.
In the issue of knowing when one has reached a status of overaccumulation I think is only lift for the investor to decide if truly he or she has accumulated enough Bitcoin everyone has there own financial goals so when you think you have reached your bitcoin accumulation goal then I believe you have accumulated enough for yourself, what may be enough for you may not be for the other person.

There are ways to calculate out formulas which would show that if a guy sells 50% of his BTC every time the BTC price doubles, then such guy would never experience compounding value in his profits because he would be cashing out all of his profits and merely maintaining his bitcoin investment size at the same amount that he put into it.

A guy who were to cash out 25% of the value every time that the BTC price doubles would be cashing out half of the profits and allowing the other half to compound upon itself.

Surely my choices to cash out up to 10% the value of bitcoin every time it doubled and then later going down to such values of cashing out only 3% every time it doubles, these cashing out amounts are still allowing 80% to 94% of the profits to continue to compound upon itself, and since my bitcoin holdings had gone through more than 8 doublings (see my compounding value discussion) from the time that the BTC price was $250 in 2015, so therefore an overwhelming amount of that value had been allowed to continue to compound upon itself at least 8 times so far, even though some of the amount was withdrawn out of the holdings... which I also claim to be serving as downside insurance, too.

Waiting for the price to doubled before selling is actually a very good way to sell your Bitcoin as someone who has accumulated enough Bitcoin Because it will still keep your investment going.
JJG you gave a very clear explanation and reason why waiting for price to double before selling, without using this strategy you can't keep your investment going because it will run dry.
Those who are regretting now for selling off all there accumulated Bitcoin at once may have not if they had this idea.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 02:08:46 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 02:08:46 AM

Quote from: BitBakerr1 on April 13, 2025, 08:48:15 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 13, 2025, 04:55:55 PM

Quote from: Derekfunds on April 13, 2025, 01:43:33 AM

However, I think the most important thing is that you have a good portfolio and whether you sell or not it won't affect you in any way. if you knew Bitcoin will be this great will you still be selling close to 10% then?

I think that from my sustainable withdrawal thread, I have mostly been following price-based sustainable withdrawal rather than time-based sustainable withdrawal, even though since around late-2022, I have had cordoned off portions of my BTC stash for some variations of time-based sustainable withdrawal too.

I think that selling 10% for every time that the BTC price doubles is a very conservative approach, and surely there could be mistakes that involve guys failing to properly assess their status of overaccumulation, and wrongly concluding that they have more than enough bitcoin. I surely do not have any regrets about my approach, and I had even been participating in the below linked SSS thread since about April 2014.

When it comes to your sustainable withdrawal plan it is very wonderful and the thread you created about sustainable withdrawal I believed it has helped a lot of people who has come across it.

Yeah you are right JJG selling 10% for every time that the BTC price doubles is a very conservative approach because it will help you benefit or profit more better from your accumulated Bitcoin.
Yeah some people conclude wrongly that they have more than enough bitcoin the reason for this is because they don't understand there goal and the capacity of Bitcoin.
Yes no need to have regret about your approach sir JJG because you did very well with your Bitcoin investment.

The bitcoin investment has outperformed expectations, and I think that the way that I established my withdrawal formula, it was biased in favor of the BTC price going up, so sure, there are ways that any of us could look at it retrospectively (Monday morning quarter backing) and verify that there could have had been ways to profit more, yet I remain quite satisfied with how the applications of the various formulas have played out through the years.

Yes truly the bitcoin investment has outperformed expectations, a lot of people never believed Bitcoin will grow this big.
Your sustainable withdrawal plan is a very good one.