Quote from: Tungbulu on Today at 05:41:32 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2025, 11:35:49 PM

[edited out]

Your accumulation approach is indeed a well thought out one. By consistent accumulation overtime, an investor is more likely to benefit from the DCA strategy, which of course can greatly help in potentially reducing the impact of short term volatility in the market.
The 200-WMA also serves as a very helpful indicator/benchmark. When you check the History of Bitcoin, you’d notice that the price of Bitcoin has mostly been higher than this very average, and as you continue in your accumulation, your average cost per Bitcoin might also stay relatively stable, compared to the rising 200-WMA.

I personally think that on average many times most investors are going to need to start to accumulate bitcoin above the 200-WMA, and likely if they keep investing and keep buying bitcoin, after 4 years, their average cost per bitcoin will start to be around the 200-WMA. Sure there is no exact science in this regards since there might have been opportunities to buy some bitcoin at lower prices, yet a lot of times, regular people are not going to have lump sums that they are able to invest or to be able to front load their bitcoin investment, and it also would not be very practical or prudent to be waiting to invest into bitcoin rather than just get started right away,.. even if they might have some lump sum amounts that they want to invest, they still might divide those BTC buys into the three categories of 1) buying right away, 2) DCAing and 3) buying dips.

Trying to be too smart in this whole process of bitcoin accumulating may well end up in less bitcoin accumulation and a lack of focus, so it likely is better for beginner investors into bitcoin to just do their best to accumulate for 4 years or more and then see where they end up after 4 years, and sure perhaps they might have had been able to buy some lump sums and buy some on the dip and sure they also might have had been able to front load their bitcoin investment and get through their accumulation phase faster than other people, yet in the end, they still may well need to assess their investment from time to time and also even if they largely finish in their bitcoin accumulation, they also might need to let some time pass before they might transition through their maintenance stage and then perhaps into some form of sustainable withdrawal, whether price based and/or time based, and surely in my own experience, I have found price based sustainable withdrawal to become applicable prior to time-based sustainable withdrawal, yet it still can be difficult to assess where other guys might get with their bitcoin accumulation and how they might thereafter choose to manage their bitcoin holdings.

Quote from: Tungbulu on Today at 05:41:32 AM

As an investor, it’s very important to review you investment goals from time to time and also make some necessary adjustments in your strategy accordingly. While doing this, one should always consider factors like your financial situation, investment horizon and of course risk tolerance level, which is also very important.

Unfortunately for some investors, they often normalize using a phased approach, where they gradually shift from consistent accumulation to attempt to make quick profit off the market.

Surely in bitcoin it seems problematic to end up selling too much bitcoin too soon, even though surely some guys may well have specific levels of wealth that they want to achieve to be able to make certain kinds of purchases, but without really realizing that bitcoin is likely the kind of thing that we should attempt to maintain, but yeah, we cannot change the perspectives of other folks who may well be looking for a cashing out period so that they can buy certain things that they cannot resist buying and then perhaps end up blowing too much of their bitcoin stack on these consumption items - even some might want to buy property and consider property as an investment that they would like to achieve, and we cannot really fault them for those kinds of ambitions even if they may end up employing poor investment portfolio management practices in the way that they are not able to wait or to consider alternative ways of achieving their dream(goals), which sure also might be a product of not being ready, willing and/or able to further defer gratification.

Quote from: Tungbulu on Today at 05:41:32 AM

And a lot of things are involved when they do this, like setting specific price ranges and targets, or time based targets/milestones that will be due for cashing out, which is a very wrong approach. It’s important for an investor to always stick to long term approach at all time, which involves consistent accumulation and a long term perspective until they’ve reached a fuck you status or a state of over accumulation where they’ll be able to live off their investment.

I agree with you that reaching fuck you status and/or a state of overaccumulation is preferable since it helps to make the investment sustainable and then able to pay off more in a long period of time, perhaps even in a perpetual way.. yet some folks are not able to get to such a way of thinking.. so it can be quite difficult to get them into thinking about the value of achieving sustainable withdrawal rather than merely shooting for some shorter term ambitions that might result in consuming their bitcoin or overly allocating into inferior assets.

Of course, our building up of our bitcoin investment is not ONLY about being in profits, even though surely there is a lot of comfort in being in profits, yet we also want to spend time making sure that we are ongoingly adding bitcoin to our bitcoin portfolio size, rather than just buying some lump sum and sitting back waiting for the BTC to be "in profits."

Guys are not always going to look at their bitcoin matter in a way to make sure that they are continuing to build it without focusing on the extent to which they calculate their holdings to be "in profits.".. and so many guys get excited to take profits in the 50% to 200% range, so then the miss out on a lot of the compounding value (or compounding profits) that might take a few years to play out or even a couple of cycles or more, but it surely can end up making a difference if the BTC holdings might have been allowed to double a few more times beyond the initial taking of profits, instead of the anxious investor wanting to take 50% to 200% profits, merely because he remains afraid of losing such profits by failing to take profit when he has an opportunity to lock them in (which surely is not a good way to think about bitcoin, even though many folks think about their investment into bitcoin in that kind of a way).

Many of the longer term holders end up with 16x, 32x, 64x, 128x, 256x and even larger compounding values, even though none of the compounding is guaranteed to happen, and it might even be unclear if the compounding is going to end up happening.. such as happening every 4 years or some other level of frequency whether we might be measuring our compounding value from the 200-WMA, or from our costs per BTC or from spot price changes.

Quote from: SilverCryptoBullet on Today at 11:32:40 AM

Quote from: Joy- maker on Today at 10:11:31 AM

there is a big difference between investing and trading in bitcoin, investing in bitcoin is more profitable and less risky than trading, investing in bitcoin will enable you take control over your emotions and stay focus on building your portfolio, investing in bitcoin will make you not to Panic nor sell your bitcoin loosee when dips occurs rather you buy those dips and hold.

It sounds very like that Investment (in Bitcoin) will certainly guarantee profit for all Bitcoin investors. It sounds too good to be true, and your post missed a big hidden fact about challenge of Bitcoin investment. Bitcoin value grows up with time, Bitcoin price increases with time and if you have a wide view its price increases by market cycle, not only by months or by years.

The challenge to Bitcoin investors is whether they understand Bitcoin market cycle and are able to prepare capital, individual finance for other spendings, and good psychology to deal with bear market, corrections even in bull market, to reach the sky and gain good profit.

Investors who can not do those things will have more risk of getting loss.
If investors have good vision of investing and holding their bitcoin for about 5 years or longer, chance of getting profit is quite high.

https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/bitcoin-profitable-days/
https://hodl.camp/
Other people got profit and if you want to get profit like them, you must do nearly similar what they did and as said only invest is not enough, you must invest rightly.

There is some unrealistic aspects of that hodlcamp website, since it demonstrates levels of profitability for coins bought on specific dates, yet many normie long term investors are going to have multiple purchases that are perhaps spread over 4-10 years or more, and sure they can look at some of their various purchases to figure out how long it might take for some of their purchases to get into profits, yet at the same time if they are making multiple purchases over 4-10 years or longer, then they are going to end up with weighted averages for their BTC purchases, and even though maybe they had been trying to buy bitcoin consistently on something like a weekly basis, they may also have periods in which they were able to lump sum invest into bitcoin and/or they may also have period s in which their salary went up and/or their expenses went down so they might have had been able to spend more cash on bitcoin over time, yet presumptively the BTC price is likely to have had gone up with the passage of time, even though there are likely up and down periods in regards to the BTC price along the BTC buying journey too.

Quote from: Fuso.hp on Today at 12:05:29 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 14, 2025, 11:35:49 PM

Hoping that our bitcoin holdings will be in profits 4-10 years or longer is not the same as our bitcoin holdings being in actual profits. We do our best in terms of our investment practices, and we hope that our bitcoin investment ends up in profits.

First of all, when we start investing, we all expect that after investing, that investment will end in profit and the purpose of every investor is the same.

There may be similar goals, yet I would not characterize each investor as having the same goals and/or purposes, even if their is a general preference to be in profits.

There are also variations in the investment timeline, but also variation in each of the individual factors, including perhaps if they might be considering bitcoin as a supplement to other investments that they have or if they might be first starting out investing with bitcoin, so they might not having any other investments besides bitcoin and dollars, so it becomes difficult to imagine that everyone has the same purpose in regards to why they invest into bitcoin and also how much they might choose to invest into bitcoin, once they have gotten over the hurdle of actually investing into bitcoin rather than just thinking about investing.

Quote from: Fuso.hp on Today at 12:05:29 PM

Investors now invest hard so that in the future, all these investors get a good amount of profit and with this purpose, investors invest and in the beginning, every investor tries to invest in a long-term plan.

You are repeatedly trying to proclaim everyone is the same, which is not true - even if you want to ascribe a narrow profit focus to everyone.. as if they don't have any other considerations besides maniacally focusing on profits.

Quote from: Fuso.hp on Today at 12:05:29 PM

Here we have to accept a truth that after investing our money in Bitcoin, we keep that investment for 5 years or 10 years, but there is no guarantee that it will make a profit, but from the idea we have got about the market so far and the behavior of the market from the beginning to the present, we can say that if we hold it for a long time, we will definitely get a profit.

You are saying that we are not sure if we will get a profit (which is correct), but then you say that if we hold a long time then we will definitely get a profit.

You are internally contradicting yourself. The punch line is that there is no guarantee to being in profits with our bitcoin, even if invest for a long time.

Can you think about the matter in terms of nuance instead of black and white. The future is not known until after it happens.

It is possible to have confidence in investing into something like bitcoin while realizing that it is not guaranteed to be profitable.

What is so hard about that?

Each of us has to figure out our investment size while knowing that our investment could go to zero or it could be stupendously profitable. The most that we could lose is 100% of our investment as long as we do not leverage. If we leverage we might lose more than 100%.

An asymmetric bet is something that has opportunities to return way more value than the value invested, and bitcoin is perhaps amongst the best of asymmetric bets (if not the best?) that is currently available to everyone and anyone who has a discretionary income.

Quote from: Fuso.hp on Today at 12:05:29 PM

That is why if we hold it for a long time after investing in Bitcoin, we will get a profit because since Bitcoin has been in the market until now, its popularity has not decreased, but rather the popularity of Bitcoin has only increased.

All of bitcoin's network effects (as outlined by Trace Mayer) have grown, continue to grow and likely will continue to grow. The network effects grow based on various aspects of bitcoin's strong foundations, including that it has facilitated a paradigm shift in the way that both value and information can be communicated, yet it is not guaranteed to persist, even though it currently does not have any meaningful competitors - while at the same time there continue to be ongoing ways to try to manipulate and/or control it (which may well also be considered as attacks, even though it was designed with attacks in mind).

Quote from: Fuso.hp on Today at 12:05:29 PM

As Bitcoin's popularity continues to grow each year, the number of investors in Bitcoin will increase, and the more investors invest in Bitcoin, the more the value of Bitcoin will increase. Those who think deeply before investing in Bitcoin are in favor of long-term investment and it is seen that after holding the investment for a long time, they often share stories of how they got a good amount of profit from investing in Bitcoin.

So our goal should be to hold the investment for a long time.

You reiterated your point in relation to profits, which seems that you prefer to see the world through that framework, which seems a bit superficial to me, even though it is not completely wrong, it just remains a bit shallow.. .at least from my way of thinking, and surely I have seen post from other guys who, similar to you, seem to have difficulties thinking about the world in ways other than focusing on profits...and sure, maybe that is going to work for you.